A Look at Monday’s Charts
The S&P 500 had its best day since April, but the Nasdaq-100 sits just under its 200-DMA, while the VIX and VVIX had their biggest drops in years.
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This is the new companion to tonight’s evening update (AI Bounce Drives Broad Market Rally), which covers the day’s market action, news and commentary, and what’s ahead. Here I’ll walk through the charts of the major indexes, Treasury yields, volatility, the dollar, commodities and bitcoin, along with market breadth.
In short, AI beneficiaries continued Friday’s bounce, joined Monday by most of the market, sending the S&P 500 up 2.4%, its best day since April 8.
Note on all charts the colored lines are moving averages (the average price over the lookback period — days on the daily charts, weeks on the weekly charts):
20 = green
50 = purple
100 = blue
200 = brown
MACD = Moving average convergence/divergence line, a measure of momentum that compares longer term and shorter term momentum to gauge if a move is strengthening or weakening. This is probably my favorite individual indicator.
RSI = Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like) = measures the strength of the move comparing gains to losses over the given lookback window (I use the standard 14 periods).
SPX
The SPX rose 2.35% to 7,550, its best day since April 8, after trading as high as 7,577. That puts it back 3% above its 200-DMA (7,328), but it’s still below its 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs (7,645, 7,676 and 7,620). The MACD remains in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 46.
Nasdaq Composite
The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.74% to 25,253, its best day since July 30, closing back above its 200-DMA (25,107) after Thursday’s low tagged the uptrend line from the spring low. It’s still below its 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs (25,976, 26,435 and 26,197). The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 42.
The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)
The Nasdaq-100 rose 3.40% to 27,908, its best day since March 31, but it turned back right at its 200-DMA (27,995) after trading as high as 28,026. The MACD remains in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 41.
I re-shorted the QQQ today, but it’s purely tactical, as the 200-DMA is an easy decision point. Either the Nasdaq-100 gets through it and I know I’m wrong right away, or it fails at resistance, likely falling a few percent. My gut tells me I’ll be wrong, but I thought it was not a bad hedge.
The Russell 2000 (IWM)
The Russell 2000 rose 3.15% to 2,841, its best day since March 31, closing back above its 20-, 50- and 200-DMAs (2,788, 2,835 and 2,809) and the uptrend line from last year’s low. It’s still below its 100-DMA (2,914). The MACD remains in “cover shorts” positioning, and the RSI is at 54.
The equal-weighted SPX (RSP)
The equal-weighted SPX rose 2.25% to 8,945, its best day since April 8, moving back above its 20-DMA (8,794) and staying above its 50-, 100- and 200-DMAs. The MACD remains in “buy longs” positioning, and the RSI is at 58.
SOX
The SOX jumped 6.85% to 10,034, its best day since July 30, bouncing off the uptrend line from the April 2025 low after closing right on it Friday. It’s still well below all its moving averages, including its 200-DMA (10,842). The MACD though is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 40.
The 2-year Treasury
The 2-year yield rose 5.4 basis points to 4.57% after bouncing off its 100-DMA (4.44%) Friday, leaving it about 69bp above the midpoint of the Fed funds target range (3.875%). It’s still below its 20- and 50-DMAs (both about 4.67%). The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 43.
10-year yields
The 10-year yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.88% after dipping to 4.83%, also bouncing off its 100-DMA (4.81%) and the uptrend line. It’s still below its 20- and 50-DMAs (5.01% and 5.03%). The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 39.
30-year yields
The 30-year yield edged up 1.2 basis points to 5.28% after dipping below its 100-DMA (5.25%) to 5.23% and then closing back above it. The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 40.
So all three have found support at their 100-DMAs.
VIX
The VIX fell 22.24% to 19.93, its biggest one-day drop since April 9, 2025, just topping last Wednesday’s 20.3% drop. That followed Thursday’s 69.7% jump, its biggest since December 2024. It’s back below 20 but still above all its moving averages, and implies a daily move of about 1.26% over the next 30 days.
VVIX
VVIX (the VIX of the VIX) fell 19.28% to 98.43, its biggest one-day drop since August 14, 2017, and the second-largest in data going back to 2007. The current level is consistent with “moderate” daily moves in the VIX over the next 30 days (historically, normal is 80-100, although we haven’t been below 80 since July 2024), and it’s back below the 100 level flagged by Charlie McElligott as indicating higher stress.
1-day VIX
Friday’s 1-day VIX implied a move of about 1.81% for Monday, and the SPX rose 2.35%. The 1-day VIX then fell 39.75% to 17.31, implying a move of about 1.09% for Tuesday.
WTI futures (/CL)
WTI futures fell 4.38% to $86.85, their lowest close since August 31, closing below their 100- and 200-DMAs (both about $87). The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 37.
DXY
The DXY dollar index fell 0.57% to 101.69, its worst day since August 19, slipping back below its 20-DMA (101.92) but holding above its 50-, 100- and 200-DMAs. The MACD is in “sell longs” positioning, and the RSI is at 50.
Gold futures (/GC)
Gold futures rose 0.97% to $4,114.50, their highest close since October 21, moving back above their 20-DMA ($4,077) and holding above $4,000. They’re still below their 50-, 100- and 200-DMAs and the downtrend line from the March high. The MACD is in “cover shorts” positioning, and the RSI is at 50. I am very close to pulling the trigger here, probably will tomorrow.
Copper futures (/HG) and the copper ETF (CPER)
Copper futures rose 1.72% to $6.34, bouncing off their uptrend line and holding above their 200-DMA ($6.26). They’re still below their 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs. The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 42.
The copper ETF (CPER) rose 2.02% to $38.43, moving back above its 200-DMA ($37.97) and the uptrend line after closing below both Friday.
I covered my CPER short and went long this morning.
Natural gas futures (/NG)
Natural gas futures jumped 7.34% to $3.22, their highest close since October 15, moving back above all their moving averages, including the 200-DMA ($3.02). The MACD edged back above zero to “buy longs” positioning, and the RSI is at 61.
Bitcoin futures
Bitcoin futures fell 1.24% to 74,940, their lowest close since August 20, but held above their 100- and 200-DMAs (73,452 and 72,783). They’re still below their 20- and 50-DMAs. The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 38.
Market breadth
Positive volume was pretty good at 79.0% on the NYSE on a 2.18% gain, the best since March 23 (from 47.5% Friday on a 0.02% dip), but was a little disappointing at 72.7% on the Nasdaq, just the best since October 20.
52-week highs minus lows on the Nasdaq improved to -91 from -319 Friday, but it was still a 51st straight negative session, tying the 51-session run that ended May 17, 2023, for the longest since November 2022. On the NYSE, it improved to -23 from -104.
At the time of publication, in terms of securities mentioned, Sethi was long CPER, SPY, IWM, RSP and numerous Treasury ETFs, and short QQQ. In the last 24 hours Sethi covered CPER and went long, and shorted QQQ.
