Earnings After the Close November 3

Earnings Before the Open November 4

Position: None

JSR1111

While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, since 1950, so 76 years,
the S&P 500 has NEVER been lower 12 months after a midterm election. Is that first or second level thinking? 🤔

Dougie Kass

Actually it’s 19 times over 76 years jsr! (1 out of every 4 years)

Since 72% of the years the market is higher, it’s not totally crazy (.72 times 19= 14/19 up to be average).

So after midterms only 5 times extra higher.

Position: None

Wolf Street howls about the churn of the labor force. 

Labor Market Churn Accelerates on Big Jump in Quits | Wolf Street

Position: None 

Bulldog Spirit

Hey Dougie. Do you have any view on small caps as a discrete allocation? Thanks

Dougie Kass

Such a broad question.

Obviously depends on the individual security.

I have a problem with small and mid-caps and value – as David Einhorn has said, who is to come to that party – as almost all the inflows go to large-cap tech (SPY, QQQ).

Einhorn/David Rubenstein describes the “problem” with value investing.  

Bloomberg Wealth: Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn – YouTube

Position: None

Given the magnitude of the recent decline in equities I don’t really have a strong view of the market over the very near term.

Here are some general observations and thin reed indicators that suggest today’s move may not be extended that much:

* Private equity stocks (APOL, KKR and BX) are awful.

* For that matter, banks are also weak (led by JPM).

* Bond prices are falling again (and yields are rising).

* Relatively good EPS reports from PLTR and AAPL have been ignored by market participants.

* I see a lot of “dead cat bounces” in large-cap technology.

* I have been thinking that gold leads equities. If true, GLD can’t get out of its way.

That said, given the magnitude of the decline in the last few days I am not anxious to re-short the indices…. 

Position: None 

The following is from Peter Boockvar:

The JOLTS data

The number of job openings in September (ahead of the October jobs report this week) totaled 7.523mm which is up from 7.190mm in August. The hiring rate ticked up by one tenth to 3.4% from 3.3% while the quit rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%.

Here is where the job openings rose that mostly drove the headline, State & Local govt (up 108k), Professional/Business services (up 106k), Information (up 25k), Construction (up 36k), Manufacturing (up 54k) and Transportation (up 25k).

Less job needs were seen in Financial Services (down 19k), Healthcare/Social Assistance (down 35k but just back to July level), Leisure/Hospitality (down 18k) with no change in Retail Trade.

Bottom line, while good to see the lift in job openings, it still keeps bouncing between 6.5mm and 7.5mm with a subdued hiring rate at the same time we know as measured by initial claims and from some of the staffing companies, firing’s remain historically low. Nothing market moving on this as we look to the October hiring data.

Job Openings

Hiring Rate

Quit Rate

– NYSE volume 3% below its one-month average; 

– Nasdaq volume 2flat to its one-month average; 

– VIX index:  down 2.36% to 20.65

Breadth

SOURCE: Interactive Brokers

S&P500  Sectors

SOURCE: Barchart

% GAINERS, DECLINERS

SOURCE: TheStreet Pro

Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 Heat Maps

SOURCE TheFly

As suggested I am now out of my CURLF long. 

Positions: None.

I am taking my profit in Curaleaf (CURLF) (around $10.30 +12%) based on the non trivial possibility that the company raises its bid for Aurora.

I have plenty other cannabis positions! 

Position: Long CURLF VS

The news that Aurora has received a hefty takeover bid is a very positive development for cannabis. 

Organigram to Acquire Aurora and Establish a Global Cannabis Leader

It should also be a positive for CuraLeaf which I suggested recently:

Adding to Curaleaf

Curaleaf ($CURLF) has been on a mission to acquire Aurora Cannabis (ACB).

Aurora is uninterested and it looks like it might fend off Curaleaf: “Aurora Cannabis Reaffirms Recommendation to Shareholders: REJECT Curaleaf’s Revised Hostile Bid; Preserve Opportunities for Future Upside.”

The short interest in CURLF is up by 57% in the last month to about 1.08 million shares.

Should Curaleaf abandon the proposed acquisition and if cannabis rescheduling goes through, we might see an outsized rise in Curaleaf’s shares as shorts seek to cover.

I have recently added to CURLF based on the above.

Positions: Long CURLF (S)

BY Doug Kass · Oct 27, 2026, 2:45 PM EDT

Positions: Long CURLF S

The following is from Peter Boockvar:

Midterms matter but…/They still love gold/RBA/Earnings

The elections are finally here and we’ll get a split government, with extent to be determined but we are not changing our portfolios, not one iota in response. There will be a lot of drama, a lot of noise, a lot of harsh rhetoric but in terms of actual legislation that would matter policy wise, we’re not going to get any over the next two years.

Most relevant for the economy and markets will be the AI buildout and stock trade, the direction of interest rates and the price of oil and direction of inflation.

With regards to the AI trade and its financing, this was a great chart from Bloomberg on how far and wide some of the hyperscalers have gone to raise money:

Gold has been under pressure over the past few weeks even though real interest rates have rolled over and the US dollar is off its highs. What I’ve been waiting for is the updated Q3 gold data from the World Gold Council to see the extent at which central banks continue to buy. Well, we got it today and they bought a lot.

After buying more than 200 tons per quarter in the 2nd half of 2025, that pace shrunk to just 58 tons in Q1, in part I believe to the onset of the Middle East conflict but central banks rebounded with 296 tons bought in Q2 and now out, 321 tons in Q3. The WGC said this eclipsed “recent typical quarterly buying levels and lifting y-t-d demand to 675 tons (+6% y/y).”

So, while bar/coin investors saw less demand, along with jewelry, central banks continue to be voracious buyers of the yellow metal as they continue to diversify their holdings away from the US dollar. For the price of gold, I don’t know how much longer the corrective phase will last but I’m still positive on the fundamentals and we remain long.

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2026

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rate by 25 bps as expected to 4.85%, a level last seen 18 years ago and that rate is now above where the RBA took it in 2023 but Governor Bullock hinted that they are going to take a pause from here. “I’d not be interpreting this as saying we’re not going up. I wouldn’t be interpreting it as saying we definitely are going up. We’re basically preserving our options.”

As for why they hiked again, “Given the revised inflation outlook and the continuing upside risks, the board judged that a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support the return of inflation to target.”

On the hint of a rate hike pause, the 2 yr Aussie yield fell 6.5 bps to 4.82% and the Aussie$ is down a touch. The ASX rallied by .3% in response.

RBA Cash Rate 

I’ll finish up with a few notable comments from the earnings calls I went through from yesterday.

From Marriott, up 4.3% yesterday:

“Excluding the World Cup, third quarter RevPAR in the US and Canada rose 6.2%. Growth continued to be broad based across customer segments and chain scales. Luxury and resort hotels again led the region in the quarter, with luxury RevPAR increasing 12%, while select service RevPAR had its third quarter of solid y/o/y growth, rising over 6% compared to the prior year quarter.”

“Third quarter international RevPAR rose over 4%, led by the APEC region…RevPAR in Greater China was around flat in the quarter, reflecting an uneven consumer spending environment and the impact of major typhoons across the region. Continued strength in luxury and in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Hainan markets was offset by slower domestic leisure demand across much of the rest of the Chinese mainland.”

RevPAR in the Caribbean and Latin America region rose over 3% in the 3rd quarter, driven by strong luxury and leisure demand across the Caribbean, which offset continued softness in Mexico.”

RevPAR in EMEA rose over 4%, with Europe and the Middle East both outperforming prior expectations. RevPAR in Europe rose over 6% in the 3rd quarter, with strength broad based across key markets, chain scales and customer segments. Middle East RevPAR declined 12% in the quarter, a meaningful improvement from the 2nd quarter when RevPAR declined over 40%, helped by healthy local and regional demand.”

Segment wise, “leisure RevPAR rose 7% globally and 9% in the US and Canada, as people around the world continue to prioritize in person experiences like travel. Group RevPAR rose 6% globally and 7% in the US and Canada. Third quarter business transient RevPAR rose 4% globally and 5% in the US and Canada.”

This was from Clorox on how they are managing the sharp rise in costs and whose stock was up 2% yesterday:

“In this challenging input cost environment, a strong holistic margin management program is more important than ever. We delivered near record-level cost savings and implemented targeted pricing actions across all four of our reportable segments. Overall, pricing implementation is progressing largely as expected. At the same time, we are continuing to make select price investments to improve the value equation where needed. With cost pressures of this scale, we will continue to lean into every tool we have in our holistic margin management toolbox, including pricing and revenue growth management actions in the back half of this fiscal year. We will take these actions while preserving the progress we have made in overall market share.”

On the consumer, “Category growth has been largely in line with our expectations, underscoring the resilience of our household essentials products even as consumers remain under pressure. Consumers are continuing to engage in value seeking behaviors such as opting for smaller sizes that offer a lower absolute price point or choosing larger packs that provide better value over time. We are also seeing consumers manage their budgets tightly by buying closer to need rather than stocking up. In some categories, particularly among lower-income households, they are also extending purchase cycles.”

From Estee Lauder, a stock we own that was down 4% yesterday even though numbers were better than expected, digesting the gains over the past month:

To a question on the consumer and their beauty spend, “I’m very confident that the Beauty category is remaining a very strong category in consumer goods in general. We’re seeing an acceleration. If you remember in the last fiscal year, we guided to 2% to 3%. Actually, the industry actually more or less delivered close to 3% growth in fiscal ‘26.”

“You’ve mentioned market like China, like the US is very strong, but the emerging market also continues to be very strong.”

From Apple, down premarket with a focus on less than expected gross margin guidance:

“In addition to September quarter and fiscal year records in total company revenue, iPhone set a September quarter revenue record, capping its best fiscal year ever. Services achieved an all time record during the quarter to close out our best year ever there too. We grew in the vast majority of markets we track, setting September quarter records in the Americas, Europe, Greater China, and the rest of Asia-Pacific. We also set September quarter revenue records in both developed and emerging markets, in addition to an all-time record in India.”

With expectations of 47% for their December quarter, “We expect growth margin to be between 45% and 46%. This includes primarily the impact of higher memory costs, as well as some costs related to the ramp of Siri AI.”

From ON Semiconductor, trading up premarket:

They had a good quarter “with growth above seasonal trends, continued acceleration in AI data center and improving demand in industrial.”

“AI data center continues to be our fastest growing market, scaling more rapidly than we anticipated entering the year…In automotive, we continue to gain content and secure new platform wins in every region, while industrial demand continues to improve, led by power infrastructure and energy applications.”

Upside

– BLZE +34% (Q3 beat as B2 cloud-storage growth accelerated to 47% and large AI and core-workload agreements expanded)

– AEIS +12% (record Q3 and strong Q4 guide on semiconductor and data-center power demand)

– LSCC +11% (record Q3 beat and strong Q4 and 2027 outlook on AI-data-center FPGA demand)

– GRAB +10% (Q3 growth and margins beat as revenue and EBITDA guidance was raised and buybacks continued)

– RVTY +10% (Q3 beat and FY outlook was raised)

– FISV +9.8% (reaffirmed outlook, doubled its savings target to $1B and set a $500M Q4 buyback despite flat organic revenue)

– FN +9.2% (record revenue beat and strong Q2 guide on broad optical-program ramps)

– NBIX +8.0% (Q3 beat and INGREZZA sales outlook was raised)

– BE +6.9% (MOU targets at least 1 GW of California fuel-cell power paired with carbon capture)

– JD +4.7% (China market-support measures and expected EU clearance for the Ceconomy acquisition)

– CE +4.6% (Q3 profit beat and FY earnings and free-cash-flow outlook was raised)

– MDGL +4.4% (Rezdiffra sales rose 50% and the company reached its first quarterly profit)

– MCHP +3.4%, SNDK +5.8%, MU +4.7%, LRCX +5.0%, INTC +4.6%, AMD +4.4% (chip names rebound from the recent selloff as fresh results reinforce AI-infrastructure demand)

Downside

– ZBRA -17% (quarter beat and outlook raised, but adjusted operating margin contracted sharply and results fell short of elevated expectations)

– SHOP -15% (Q3 cleared the published consensus bar, but Q4 low-30s revenue and high-20s gross-profit growth disappointed elevated expectations)

– DT -14% (quarter beat, but acquisition dilution drove cuts to the full-year EPS and margin outlook)

– IT -6.2% (profit beat and guidance raise, but contract-value growth remained soft at 2.5%)

– PLTR -4.7% (blowout quarter and guidance raise, but total contract-value growth slowed sharply, triggering a high-expectations sell-the-news reaction)

– KMX -4.2% (strategic update targets mid-single-digit unit growth and mid-teens adjusted EPS growth through fiscal 2030, but the framework disappointed investors)

– AAPL -3.8% (fiscal Q4 beat, but holiday-quarter gross-margin guidance disappointed on higher memory and AI costs)

– DDOG -2.8%, TTD -1.0%, NOW -1.0% (high-multiple software names weaken alongside PLTR on AI-valuation scrutiny and pre-earnings de-risking)

– DOCN -2.0% (strong growth and revenue outlook, but the Q4 profit outlook and heavy data-center capacity spending weighed)

– HL -1.3% (precious-metals miners fall as silver drops and gold softens)

Source: https://pro.thestreet.com/markets/etfs/premarket

* A quickie…

I have sold my GLD in premarket at $360.60 for a quick gain.

From earlier:

Yesterday’s Sale of GLD Worked Out

* But at some point I want to own GLD as a core position in light of our currency’s debasement and Washington’s undisciplined fiscal policy…

* In premarket I am back long GLD at $357.77

Positions: None.

Source: https://pro.thestreet.com/markets/stocks/premarket

Source: TipRanks

Though cannabis stocks rallied yesterday — given this “news” — I am not surprised the space didn’t rally more (it “should have”) given the battle weary nature of cannabis investors over the last five to seven years:

Senior Trump Adviser Says President Is “Entirely Confident” DEA Will Quickly Finalize Marijuana Rescheduling

Position: None

I will write it again — I was an idiot for covering my Apple (AAPL) short:

Mea Culpa

I made a big mistake covering my Apple (AAPL) short on Friday!

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Nov 2, 2026, 1:13 PM EST

Apple’s shares are down by another -$13 to around $325.

Position: None

* But at some point I want to own GLD as a core position in light of our currency’s debasement and Washington’s undisciplined fiscal policy…

* In premarket I am back long GLD at $357.77

On Friday, for the fourth time in about a month, I took a trading long rental in gold.

Yesterday, with GLD +$6 on the day I again sold out at around $362:

Gold Gone

I am out of GLD at $362.31.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Nov 2, 2026, 9:38 AM EST

This morning gold is lower and GLD is -$3.73 (and back under $358).

I will probably try again (to position a portion of my hedge fund’s portfolio into precious metals)… but, for now, treating gold as a trading sardine has been profitable.

That said, I reentered my GLD long at  $357.77  (5:25 AM).

Position: Long GLD

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved further into overbought territory at 2.37% vs. 1.10%.

I have no index positions on currently.

Position: None