I’m Eying Ocular Therapeutix, Rocket Lab; Also Small Caps Steady
Here are my two planned trades for today and why small caps aren’t so bad off.
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Readers will note that on Friday, as the markets were taking an AI-induced beating and that while our portfolio was hit hard, small- and mid-cap stocks outperformed. That does not mean that these stocks did well. The Russell 2000 still gave up 1.66% on Friday as the S&P Smallcap 600 and S&P Midcap 400 gave up 1.22% apiece. That said, these three indexes actually gained ground (1.29%, 1.26% and 1.46%, respectively) for the week, differentiating them from the large-cap and mega-cap crowds.
The daily chart of the Russell 2000 is really not all that bad as U.S. Treasury debt securities have been exceedingly strong of late as investors have sought out safe haven. This pushes down borrowing costs for smaller companies that rely more heavily on debt to maintain operations and meet payroll. In addition, crude oil prices appear to finally be taking a breather. That also would be supportive for small caps as that reduces the expense side of the ledger and allows for increased margin.
We see that the Rising Wedge of bearish reversal that culminated in August worked as advertised. Now, we see that this index lost its 200-day simple moving average and on Thursday, regained that thin red line. On Friday, under pressure, this index found support there, which is comforting to small cap bulls. Relative Strength is neutral. The daily moving average convergence divergence is suddenly looking more bullish than it had been in a while.
Within that index, we see that the histogram of the 9-day exponential moving average is well into positive territory (short-term bullish). We also see that while neither of these lines is above the zero-bound, that the 12-day EMA has crossed above the 26-day EMA and has created some space between the two. These are potentially short to medium-term bullish signals.
Portfolio News
Ondas Inc (ONDS): On Friday, Ondas Inc outlined how its Aerial Security portfolio and civilian counter-UAS deployment experience has positioned the company to support state, and local agencies as well as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). This is the start of its efforts to extend its Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems to communities nationwide. This is part of an expanded $500 million FEMA grant program.
Ondas will participate in the 2nd Annual Countering the Threat: Drone Security Industry & SLTT Grant Forum on Nov. 9 to be hosted by the White House Task Force on the 2028 Summer Olympics, DRONERESPONDERS and the Commercial Drone Alliance.
Upcoming Portfolio Earnings…
Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL): Wednesday, Nov. 4.
Consensus: adjusted loss per share of $0.35 on revenue of $14.3 million.
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN): Thursday, Nov. 5
Consensus: adjusted loss per share of $0.07 on revenue of $72.1 million.
Peloton Interactive (PTON): Thursday, Nov. 5
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $0.13 on revenue of $552.7 million.
Rocket Lab (RKLB): Monday: Nov. 9
Consensus: adjusted loss per share of $0.02 on revenue of $257.2 million.
Evolv Technologies (EVLV): Tuesday, Nov. 10, Semper Fi
Consensus: adjusted loss per share of $0.02 on revenue of $45.6 million.
Ondas Inc (ONDS): Friday, Nov. 13
Consensus: adjusted loss per share of $0.09 on revenue of $148.1 million.
Planet Labs (PL): on or close to Dec. 10
Consensus: adjusted loss per share of $0.03 on revenue of $104.5 million.
Friday’s Intentions vs. Actual Trades
- Purchase 10 shares of ONDS at $6.25 or better. Limited.
– Bought 10 shares of ONDS at $6.25. - Purchase 10 shares of PL at $13.50 or better. Limited.
– Bought 10 shares of PL at $13.50. - Purchase two shares of RKLB at $53.00 or better. Limited.
- Nothing Done
- Purchase two shares of RKLB at $51.00 or better. Limited.
- Nothing Done
- Purchase 10 shares of OCUL at $7.00 or better. Limited.
- Bought 10 shares of OCUL at $7.00.
- Purchase 10 shares of OCUL at $6.80 or better. Limited.
- Nothing Done.
Monday’s Intentions
- Purchase two shares of RKLB at $53.00 or better. Limited.
- Purchase two shares of RKLB at $51.00 or better. Limited.
- Purchase 10 shares of OCUL at $6.80 or better. Limited.
Current Positions
Long 60 shares of ASPN at $5.1083. Target Price: $10. Last sale: $5.06.
Long 50 shares of EVLV at $5.33.92. Target Price: $7.50. Last sale: $4.72.
Long 160 shares of OCUL at $8.0423. Target Price: $12. Last sale: $7.13.
Short one OCUL $9 Dec 18th call at $0.80, Last sale: $0.20.
Long 310 shares of ONDS at $7.7002. Target Price: $12. Last sale: $6.43.
Long 110 shares of PL at $18.4543. Target Price: $20. Last sale: $13.73.
Short one PL $17 Nov 19th call at $1.70, Last sale: $0.13.
Long 70 shares of PTON at $5.0654. Target Price: $9. Last close: $5.11.
Long 10 shares of RKLB at $53.667. Target Price $84. Last close: $55.50.
Long 125 shares of SOFI at $15.9644. Target Price: $24. Last close: $16.95.
Cash: $754.93.
Portfolio Value: $8,9426.57, -10.1% from inception on March 24.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PTON, RKLB, SOFI; Short PL, OCUL.
