Stock Market Today

Amazon (AMZN) shares are down by nearly 6% after hours after the company missed on both the top and bottom lines, per TipRanks, even as Amazon Web Services posted its fastest growth in nearly five years. The bigger story is cash: Amazon spent $75.9 billion on capital expenditures, net of proceeds and incentives, in the third quarter against $42.4 billion of operating cash flow, a $33.5 billion quarterly cash burn.¹ The stock had already fallen in the regular session to close at $243.79, per Bloomberg.

Revenue, Operating Income and EPS

Net sales rose 12% (13% excluding currency) to $201.9 billion, per Amazon’s earnings release, just under the top of the company’s $197 billion to $202 billion guidance range and short of the $202.31 billion consensus cited by TipRanks.

The miss on earnings was despite record operating income of $28.1 billion, a 13.9% margin that Amazon called its highest ever. That cleared the top of the $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion guidance range by $1.6 billion and beat the roughly $26 billion Street estimate, though it only matched the roughly $28 billion buyside whisper, per ZeroHedge.

That said the 61% year-over-year jump in operating income overstates the improvement. The year-ago quarter carried a $2.5 billion charge for the FTC settlement and $1.8 billion of severance, per Amazon’s third-quarter 2025 release. Against that quarter’s $21.7 billion figure excluding charges, operating income rose 29%.⁴ North America’s 82% gain shrinks to 19% against its $7.3 billion figure excluding the FTC charge.⁴

Earnings per share of $1.89 missed the $1.96 consensus, per TipRanks. The EPS miss came below the operating line: non-operating items were a $1.2 billion drag, including a tripling of interest expense to $1.7 billion, which now exceeds Amazon’s $1.2 billion of interest income, and a $703 million loss in other income, versus a $10.7 billion gain a year earlier when Amazon booked $9.5 billion of pre-tax gains on its Anthropic stake.

AWS Remains the Growth Driver

AWS accounted for 59.6% of the $21.8 billion year-over-year revenue increase, with North America contributing 30.2% and International 10.2%.² AWS rose to 22.8% of total sales from 18.3% a year earlier, while North America fell to 55.9% from 59.0% and International to 21.3% from 22.7%.² Excluding AWS, revenue grew 6.0%.²

The Prime Day shift distorts the year-over-year comparison. Amazon held Prime Day in the second quarter in most large countries this year, versus entirely in the third quarter in 2025, and said third-quarter growth would have been about 400 basis points higher without the shift. Combining the second and third quarters to wash out the timing, total revenue rose 15.7%, North America 11.0%, International 9.8% and AWS 38.1%.³ Adjusted for Prime Day, the retail business is growing closer to 11% than 6%.³

Margins

Sequentially, all three segment margins slipped: AWS to 38.7% from 39.4%, North America to 7.7% from 7.9% and International to 3.7% from 4.1%. Operating margin outside AWS was 6.6%, down from 6.8% in the second quarter but up from 4.1% a year ago.² The record consolidated margin is a mix effect: it edged up because higher-margin AWS rose to 22.8% of sales from 21.1% in the second quarter.²

But AWS Lagged Its Peers

AWS revenue rose 39.3% to $46.0 billion, beating the $45.29 billion consensus, per TipRanks, and accelerating from 37% in the second quarter. It still fell short of the roughly 42% the buyside was looking for, per ZeroHedge. AWS operating income rose 55% to $17.8 billion, and CEO Andy Jassy said Amazon is projecting AWS “revenue growth rates of over 40% both in 2027 and in 2028.”

Two numbers look weaker under the beat. AWS added $3.75 billion of revenue sequentially, down from $4.65 billion in the second quarter, despite the third quarter having one more day.⁵ And its operating margin slipped 0.7 percentage point to 38.7%, against a buyside hoping for the low 40s, per ZeroHedge citing UBS.

For comparison, Microsoft’s (MSFT) Azure grew 48% and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google Cloud grew 103% to $30.7 billion, per Alphabet’s release, a figure that includes TPU system sales. Google Cloud added about $15.5 billion of revenue year over year, more than AWS’s $13.0 billion, from a base less than half the size.⁶

Advertising and Retail

Advertising revenue rose 11% (12% excluding currency) to $19.64 billion, missing the $20.82 billion consensus by 5.7%, per TipRanks, and slowing from 26% growth in the second quarter.⁷ Amazon blamed “timing anomalies primarily related to Prime Day” and guided to high-teens growth in the fourth quarter. Even washing out Prime Day, advertising grew 18.1% across the second and third quarters, down from 23.2% over the same stretch of 2025.³

Online stores sales rose 1.6% (2% excluding currency) to $68.5 billion, below the $69.68 billion FactSet estimate cited by MarketWatch, while third-party seller services grew 9%. North America sales rose 6% to $112.9 billion, also below the $113.2 billion forecast, per MarketWatch.

Capex and Free Cash Flow

Purchases of property and equipment were $77.3 billion in the quarter, or $75.9 billion net of proceeds and incentives, far above analyst estimates, per Bloomberg. Net capex rose 43% from $53.1 billion in the second quarter and more than doubled from $34.2 billion a year earlier.¹

That left a free cash outflow of $33.5 billion for the quarter,¹ versus the $7.7 billion outflow Bloomberg consensus expected, per ZeroHedge. On the trailing 12-month basis Amazon reports, free cash flow fell to an outflow of $42.4 billion from an outflow of $7.6 billion in the second quarter and an inflow of $14.8 billion a year earlier.

Amazon said it continues to expect about $220 billion of 2026 cash capex. With $172.2 billion already spent through September, that implies about $47.8 billion in the fourth quarter, 37% below the third quarter.¹ So either fourth-quarter capex falls 37% from the third quarter even as Amazon says demand still exceeds supply, or the $220 billion plan gets exceeded. Amazon gave no 2027 figure; Evercore ISI forecasts $320 billion, per MarketWatch. Cash capex also leaves out $26.8 billion of property and equipment acquired but not yet paid for over the trailing 12 months, plus $4.5 billion acquired under finance leases.

Debt is funding the gap. Amazon raised $48.1 billion of long-term debt in the quarter and $115.1 billion year to date, lifting long-term debt to $173.1 billion from $65.6 billion at the end of 2025. Cash and equivalents fell to $55.8 billion from $86.8 billion, though including marketable securities, liquidity fell a more modest $8.8 billion to $114.2 billion.

Fourth-Quarter Guidance

Amazon guided fourth-quarter net sales to $240 billion to $247 billion, up 12% to 16%, including about 60 basis points of currency drag. The $243.5 billion midpoint is just below the $244.17 billion FactSet consensus cited by MarketWatch.

Operating income guidance of $28.5 billion to $33.5 billion has a $31.0 billion midpoint, below the roughly $33 billion Street estimate, per ZeroHedge. The midpoint implies a 12.7% operating margin, below the third quarter’s 13.9% and roughly flat with the 12.8% of last year’s fourth quarter excluding special charges.⁸ Against last year’s $27.4 billion fourth-quarter figure excluding charges, per Amazon’s fourth-quarter 2025 release, the midpoint is up 13%.⁸

Despite the misses, TipRanks shows a Strong Buy consensus among 44 analysts, with an average price target of $331.54.

Notes

¹ Calculated from Amazon’s cash flow statements. Net capex is purchases of property and equipment ($77.26 billion in the third quarter; $54.21 billion in the second) less proceeds from sales and incentives ($1.38 billion; $1.13 billion). Quarterly free cash flow is operating cash flow ($42.42 billion) less net capex ($75.88 billion). Implied fourth-quarter capex is $220 billion less nine-month net capex of $172.19 billion.

² Calculated from Amazon’s segment information.

³ Calculated as combined second- and third-quarter sales versus the same two quarters a year earlier (2025 versus 2024 for the advertising comparison).

⁴ Calculated using the figures excluding charges in Amazon’s third-quarter 2025 release.

⁵ Calculated from AWS segment sales: $45.98 billion in the third quarter, $42.23 billion in the second and $37.59 billion in the first.

⁶ Calculated: Google Cloud revenue of $30.7 billion versus $15.2 billion a year earlier; AWS $45.98 billion versus $33.01 billion.

⁷ Calculated: $19.64 billion actual versus $20.82 billion consensus.

⁸ Calculated: $31.0 billion divided by the $243.5 billion revenue midpoint; $27.4 billion divided by $213.4 billion fourth-quarter 2025 sales.

Intel (INTC) shares are down over 16% after hours Thursday after the chipmaker forecast fourth-quarter revenue and profit well below Wall Street estimates, blaming a deepening PC slump and supply problems, even as its data center business posted its fastest growth in 15 years.

Notably, this would put Intel into a gap formed from its April earnings which extends down another 8% from where it was trading as of 4.50 p.m. ET.

Third-quarter adjusted EPS of 52 cents beat the TipRanks consensus of 41 cents. Revenue rose 21% to $16.51 billion, a hair below TipRanks’ $16.56 billion estimate, Intel said in its earnings release.

Beat on profit, ahead of its own guidance

Intel topped its own targets though. In July, it guided third-quarter revenue to $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, adjusted EPS to 38 cents and a 42.0% non-GAAP gross margin. Revenue landed $213 million above the midpoint, EPS beat that guide by 14 cents and gross margin came in at 44.1%.¹

Non-GAAP gross margin rose 4.1 percentage points from a year earlier and 2.3 points from the second quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin climbed to 19.6% from 11.2% a year ago and 17.2% last quarter.

Per-share growth lagged profit growth. Adjusted net income jumped 169% to $2.76 billion, but adjusted EPS rose 126% because the diluted share count grew 17% to 5.31 billion after this year’s equity raises.¹ GAAP EPS of 60 cents included a $1.0 billion gain on the mark-to-market of shares held in escrow for the U.S. government, worth 17 cents a share, which Intel excludes from adjusted results.

Data center carried the whole quarter

Data center and AI accounted for 112% of Intel’s $2.86 billion year-over-year revenue increase; excluding it, sales fell 3.6%.¹

The segment’s revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion, well above the $6.7 billion analysts expected, MarketWatch reported, and rose 17% from the second quarter. Its operating margin widened to 41.5% from 23.4% a year ago, and about 65 cents of each extra revenue dollar fell to operating income.¹ Data center operating income of $3.04 billion topped the client unit’s $2.29 billion for a second straight quarter.

Client Computing and Physical AI, the PC chip unit, fell 5% to $8.1 billion, short of the $8.9 billion FactSet consensus cited by MarketWatch, and dropped 9% from the second quarter. Its operating margin slipped to 28.2% from 31.6%.¹

The mix shift is stark. Data center now makes up 47.5% of Intel Products revenue, up from 32.5% a year ago and 41.4% last quarter.¹

Intel Foundry revenue jumped 58% to $6.7 billion, ahead of the $6.4 billion consensus, per MarketWatch. Most of that is chips made for Intel’s own product groups and is eliminated in consolidation. The foundry operating loss narrowed to $1.85 billion from $2.32 billion a year earlier, cutting its loss margin to 27.7% from 54.8%.¹ “All other” revenue fell 30%, partly because Intel deconsolidated Altera on Sept. 12, 2025.

The guide is the biggest problem

The $15.5 billion midpoint of Intel’s fourth-quarter revenue guide is $1.56 billion, or 9%, below the TipRanks consensus, and its 25-cent EPS guide is 43% below.¹

Intel guided revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion, against $17.06 billion expected, and adjusted EPS to 25 cents, versus 44 cents, TipRanks reported. The midpoint implies a 6% sequential decline and slows year-over-year growth to about 13% from 21%.¹

Margins take a bigger hit. Intel guided a 38.0% non-GAAP gross margin, 6.1 points below the third quarter’s 44.1%. On a GAAP basis, the guide is 37.1%, which is why some outlets reported 37% and others 38%.

Intel blamed a PC market squeezed by soaring memory prices. CFO David Zinsner said in the release that the PC slowdown will last “at least through the first half of next year.” Intel expects the PC market to shrink 10% in 2027 after a 12% drop in 2026, Bloomberg reported. CEO Lip-Bu Tan told Bloomberg data center sales would have been higher without raw-material shortages and a factory shutdown in Israel. Intel investor relations chief John Pitzer told MarketWatch an explosion at the Israel plant earlier this month weighed on the outlook.

Other issues

Inventory rose 4.6% from the second quarter to $13.1 billion, and 12.5% since year-end, while client revenue fell.¹ Work-in-process inventory, at $8.8 billion, accounts for most of it. Intel says it is building working capital to increase supply, but rising inventory into a PC downturn is worth watching.

The client miss came from the bigger of Intel’s two product businesses. A segment analysts expected to grow 5% shrank 5%, and the fourth-quarter guide suggests the decline deepens.

Cash, capex and the balance sheet

Operating cash flow was $5.1 billion. Gross capital spending rose to $4.2 billion from $3.0 billion a year earlier, and adjusted free cash flow was $1.64 billion, up from $0.9 billion. Year-to-date gross capex totals $11.8 billion.¹ Intel has pledged to spend $20 billion in 2026, the FT reported. If that refers to gross capex, it implies about $8.2 billion in the fourth quarter.¹

The $23 billion equity offering completed in the quarter transformed the balance sheet. Cash and short-term investments reached $54.0 billion against $50.1 billion of total debt, a net cash position of $3.9 billion, compared with net debt of $9.2 billion at the end of 2025.¹

The takeaway

The AI demand story for Intel held up this quarter, and the data center business is now Intel’s profit engine. But the stock had priced in a smoother transition. Expectations were high with shares up more than 140% this year coming into the print despite a more than 20% drop over the past month, per the FT. A guide that cuts revenue, margins and EPS at once, blamed on PCs, memory costs and a fab disruption, breaks that narrative for at least a quarter. Before the report, analysts’ average price target of $114.23 implied 24.1% upside, per TipRanks.

¹ Calculated from figures in Intel’s third-quarter 2026 earnings release and, for prior-quarter and guidance comparisons, its second-quarter 2026 release. Segment contributions to the year-over-year increase use reported segment revenue; Intel Foundry net of intersegment eliminations added $398 million (14%), client subtracted $438 million and “all other” subtracted $301 million. Segment operating margins equal segment operating income divided by segment revenue. Net cash equals cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments minus short- and long-term debt. Consensus figures are from TipRanks unless noted; FactSet figures are via MarketWatch.

Just opened a small position in GOOG at $280. There is good support near $271, so I see it as a high-reward, low-risk opportunity. Now that the stock has dropped 13% today and nearly 30% since May, GOOG is reasonably valued.

We also added to our initial position in META, and now have a cost basis of about $630 in that stock. This plan was laid out in a previous article.

Writing up GOOG and META with charts and explanations now, article to follow tomorrow morning.

The last of this week’s three coupon (more than one year in maturity) Treasury auctions came today in $44 billion of 7-year notes, and it continued the week’s theme of domestic buyers picking up the slack from softer foreign demand.

At Monday’s 2-year, indirect bidders (which include foreign buyers) fell to the lowest since November 2021 as direct (domestic) bidders took a record share. Indirect demand recovered somewhat in Tuesday’s 5-year but was still below the six-month average, and today’s 7-year was a similar story but direct bidders took the second-largest share on record keeping the end result in line with expectations and leaving dealers with less than at either of the previous two auctions (9.4%, versus 13.0% at the 2-year and 10.6% at the 5-year)

The sale cleared at 4.894%, down from 5.085% in September (the highest on record for this maturity). It came in “on the screws” (right in line with expectations) against a when-issued of 4.894%, much better than the +0.7 basis point tail in September (the biggest since March), and versus a six-month average tail of +0.2 basis points. Interestingly, it was the fourth 7-year auction to price on the screws in 2026.

Looking at the rest of the metrics:

-Overall demand (bid/cover) rose to 2.46 from 2.42 in September, but stayed below the six-month average of 2.49.

-Indirect bidders (which include foreign buyers) edged up to 57.8% from 57.2% in September (the lowest since November 2025), but remained well below the six-month average of 63.7%.

-Direct (domestic) bidders jumped to 32.8%, the highest since July 2025 and the second-highest in Treasury data back to 2009 (after July 2025’s 33.7%), from 30.3% in September and well above the six-month average of 24.2%.

-That left dealers with 9.4%, the lowest since December 2025, down from 12.5% in September and below the six-month average of 12.1% (the record low was 4.1% in July 2025).

So at all three auctions this week, indirect bidders took a below-average share (45.7%, 60.0% and 57.8%), which was offset at least in part by direct bidders taking more (41.3%, 29.4% and 32.8%).

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) retail-focused weekly investor survey edges less bearish:

AAII Bulls (those who see higher stock prices in 6 mths, blue line) edged up to 37.8% from 36.9% the prior week, moving back above the long-term historical average of 37.5% after a week below.

Bulls, though, remained below the level of the Bears (who see lower stock prices in 6 mths, red line), even as the Bears fell to 41.4%, the least in three weeks, from 45.8% the prior week (and further below the 53.3% six weeks ago, the highest since May 2025).

That leaves Bulls above Bears just twice in the last 15 weeks. Bears also remain above the long-term average of 31.0% for a 37th straight week (and they’ve only been below it 9 weeks since Dec 12, 2024).

The Neutral camp (yellow line) rose to 20.7%, the most in three weeks, from 17.3% (which was the least since early April). It remains under the long-run average of 31.5% and has been over that only twice since July 2024.

On Monday, I asked whether Japanese selling of Treasuries is a risk. Today, Bloomberg reported that the risk may be much broader than just Japan.

Countries most aligned with the U.S. bought a net $174.3 billion of Treasury notes and bonds in the first eight months of 2026, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of Treasury and State Department data. That’s the least for the period since 2021 and down more than 60% from a year earlier. Bloomberg ranks alignment by how often countries vote with the U.S. at the United Nations.

Asia led the retreat:

• Japan, the biggest foreign holder, bought just $389 million, down 99% from a year earlier.
• South Korea sold $23.8 billion, the most for the period in records going back to 1977.
• Taiwan was also a net seller.

The least-aligned countries bought $17.1 billion, reversing four straight years of selling over the same period. China remained the biggest seller, while the UK, Hong Kong and India were the biggest buyers. The data cover both government and private investors, and Bloomberg notes that holdings can be credited to the country where they’re held through custodians rather than to the actual owner.

Bloomberg cites weak currencies, rising yields at home, growing demand for stocks and unease over U.S. policy as possible factors. The yen hit a four-decade low this year, and the won fell to its weakest since 2009.

“The Treasury market isn’t losing foreign buyers — it’s losing automatic buyers,” Masahiko Loo, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Investment Management, told Bloomberg.

Private investors, including hedge funds, banks and mutual funds, have stepped in, lifting their share of federal debt to about 70%, near the highest since 1990. Foreigners still owned $7.85 trillion of Treasuries as of August, near a record. But their share of the market has shrunk to less than a third, from a peak of 52% in 2012.

The tradeoff is price. “The Treasury will fund itself — the question is the price and the volatility of the price,” said Shoki Omori, Deutsche Bank’s chief fixed-income strategist for Japan..

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24: 194,000 (estimate 199,000; previous 194,000; revised previous 195,000)
• Continuing claims for the week ending October 17: 1,701,000 (previous 1,728,000; revised previous 1,722,000).

After bottoming at 189,000 in mid-July — the lowest reading since 1969 — initial jobless claims have barely budged, this week edging down 1,000 in the week through October 24th to 194,000, the lowest since July 18 (from an upwardly revised 195,000 the prior week). That makes it only the 17th week below 200,000 since 1969, leaving claims near cycle lows at the bottom of the relatively narrow range that has held since November 2021. It is also the second straight week below that mark, following the four-week run from September 12 through October 3, the longest since 1969.

The four-week average fell 1,250 to 196,750, the lowest since October 1969 (30,000 lower year-over-year).

Continuing claims (seasonally adjusted) in the week through October 17 (one week lagged) fell 21,000, the largest weekly decline since September 5, to 1,701,000, the lowest since September 19 (after a 6,000 downward revision to the prior week), leaving them just above the 1,699,000 hit four weeks earlier, the least since April 2023, and towards the bottom of the roughly 1.70 million to 2.0 million range that has held since mid-2023 — historically low, though not quite as low as initial claims.

The four-week average of continuing claims edged up 500 to 1,710,000 (after a 1,500 downward revision to the prior week), just above the 1,707,000 two weeks earlier that matched the lowest since April 2023, and remains lower year-over-year for a 39th straight week (down 229,250) — the largest such gap since December 2022.

The 20-year pre-pandemic average for initial claims is 345,000 and continuing claims roughly 2.9 million.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

After months of speculation that she would leave before her eight-year term ends in October 2027, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced today that she will step down on February 7, 2027, just hours ahead of the Governing Council’s latest rate decision, according to Bloomberg. Hers is the third of the six Executive Board seats set to turn over by May.

Lagarde becomes only the second president in the ECB’s 28-year history to leave early, after Wim Duisenberg, whose shortened stint had been agreed in advance to break a France-Germany deadlock before the bank’s launch.

Lagarde, 70, told fellow policymakers she wanted “greater freedom to express her views” because she could not stay neutral on developments in France ahead of its April presidential election, the Financial Times reported. She has ruled out running herself and has been in talks to chair the World Economic Forum. In a video message, she said she leaves with “a sense of good work done, and an ECB that is fit for the future,” per Bloomberg.

The Decision

Markets and economists widely expect the ECB to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% later this morning as officials weigh higher energy prices and recent bond-market turmoil. That would follow hikes in June and September to counter elevated inflation tied to the Iran war, but markets expect further tightening, Bloomberg noted. Bloomberg Economics expects Lagarde to wrap up the hiking cycle in December, which could give her successor some room before any further rate changes are needed. Euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, with core at 2.5%, according to Eurostat.

The decision is due at 9:15 a.m. ET, followed by Lagarde’s press conference at 9:45 a.m. ET.

The Succession Race

Three of the six Executive Board seats — the presidency, the chief economist and the markets portfolio — turn over by May. Isabel Schnabel is leaving a year early to join the International Monetary Fund and Philip Lane’s term expires in May, so governments will likely try to settle all three in one deal, with EU summits in November and December, per Bloomberg.

For the presidency, Spain is backing Pablo Hernández de Cos, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements and former Bank of Spain governor, while the Dutch government is backing former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot, the FT reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in October see De Cos as the favorite. Knot built a reputation as a hawk during the eurozone debt crisis but has since softened into a pragmatist seen as responsive to bond-market stress, according to The Wall Street Journal, which also noted that an outsider can’t be ruled out given Lagarde herself was a last-minute pick in a 2019 package deal.

The timing also lets President Emmanuel Macron help pick Lagarde’s successor before his final term ends, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen leading French polls, which risks accusations of political encroachment on the ECB’s independence, Bloomberg added. Banque de France’s governor also left early, with Macron naming his chief of staff, Emmanuel Moulin, to the post.

Market Reaction

The news barely moved markets following the announcement. The euro was down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.114, per the FT, while the 10-year German Bund yield was 1 basis point lower at 3.36% and the French-German 10-year spread held at 154 basis points, according to Bloomberg. That spread recently hit its widest since 2011, and French long-term borrowing costs topped 5% last week for the first time since 2002 per the FT. Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding told the FT the departure doesn’t change the outlook for ECB policy or for how the bank handles French risks.

Ahead of Q3 GDP later this morning the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow final Q3 nowcast came in at 3.27% Wednesday, the least since it initiated tracking for the quarter, down from its 6.18% peak on August 3.

Over the past two years, GDPNow’s last reading before the advance GDP report has been either very close or well off, with little in between. It was within a tenth in four of the last eight quarters (Q3 and Q4 2024, Q2 2025 and Q2 2026) and off by 0.75 percentage point or more in the other four.

Over its history since 2014 (excluding 2020), GDPNow’s average miss has been 0.59 point. It has been within half a point half the time and within a point 84% of the time.

But a couple of unique historical tendencies are worth keeping in mind:

▪ GDPNow’s final reading usually falls from where it stood a month before the release (34 of 56 quarters excluding 2020). That’s what we saw in Q1 and Q2, and now Q3, down 1.75 points from 5.02% on September 25. But when it has fallen more than half a point in that final month, the actual print has come in above its final reading in 16 of 22 quarters.

▪ In third quarters specifically, the advance print has come in above GDPNow’s final reading in 10 of 14 quarters (excluding 2020), by an average of 0.31 point.

Here’s GDPNow’s final breakdown of the components as of October 28 and changes from my last update October 20:

Consumption = +2.55% (0.00%)

Business spending (nonresidential fixed investment) = +1.73% (+0.16%)

Inventories = +1.64% (−0.21%)

Government = +0.44% (0.00%)

Residential investment = −0.13% (−0.03%)

Net exports = −2.95% (−0.09%)

GDPNow Forecast: +3.27% (−0.23%)

GDPNow, though, has plenty of company this quarter. As of Friday, six of the seven major trackers I follow were between 3.1% and 3.7%. The outlier is the New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast at 2.67%, where it has held for three weeks. The average as of Friday was 3.28% and the median 3.30%.

Bank of America’s tracker has been the most accurate of the group over the past year and is the highest this quarter at 3.70%.

US economic data includes the advance estimate of Q3 GDP, which will incorporate September personal income and spending with PCE prices that will also be separately reported. We’ll also get weekly unemployment claims.

The Fed’s blackout period extends until midnight, with Fed speakers resuming Friday.

The non-Bill (>1yr in maturity) US Treasury auction is $44bn of 7-year notes.

61 S&P 500 components report, 14 of them with market caps over $100bn:61 S&P 500 components report, 14 of them with market caps over $100bn:

Before the open: Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Merck (MRK), Caterpillar (CAT), Linde (LIN), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Altria (MO), Trane Technologies (TT), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Quanta Services (PWR), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), CRH (CRH), Xcel Energy (XEL), L3Harris (LHX), Carrier (CARR), Ameriprise (AMP), D.R. Horton (DHI), Ares Management (ARES), WEC Energy (WEC), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Hershey (HSY), Cognizant (CTSH), WTW (WTW), West Pharmaceutical (WST), Incyte (INCY), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Bunge (BG), Kimco Realty (KIM), Avery Dennison (AVY), Textron (TXT), Baxter (BAX), Huntington Ingalls (HII), A.O. Smith (AOS) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)

After the close: Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Gilead (GILD), SanDisk (SNDK), Stryker (SYK), Starbucks (SBUX), Mondelez (MDLZ), Republic Services (RSG), Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), Digital Realty (DLR), Monolithic Power (MPWR), Coinbase (COIN), Illumina (ILMN), Twilio (TWLO), ResMed (RMD), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Reddit (RDDT), Veralto (VLTO), Edison International (EIX), First Solar (FSLR), Alliant Energy (LNT), Weyerhaeuser (WY), GoDaddy (GDDY), DaVita (DVA) and Erie Indemnity (ERIE)

Time not announced: Monster Beverage (MNST) and AES (AES)

Outside the US, Shell (SHEL), TotalEnergies (TTE) and Volkswagen (VWAGY) report.

Ex-US highlights include a policy decision from the ECB, UK September net consumer credit and M4, Japan October consumer confidence index, Italy September unemployment rate, October consumer confidence index, economic sentiment and manufacturing confidence, Eurozone October economic confidence and Sweden Q3 GDP indicator.

From Christophe Barraud’s international Week Ahead rundown: