Who’s In and Who’s Out of the New iPhone Models?

As the trading week gets under way with all the major market indicators moving higher, several events on the diplomacy front, Meta’s (META) Meta Connect event, and the Flash September PMI data are all ahead of us. As we navigate those, we’ll want to keep a close watch on the S&P 500 relative to its 50-day moving average near 7620.

In the meantime, let’s review several developments both in and out of the Pro Portfolio.

Martin Marietta and Diesel Prices

Last week we talked a bit about diesel prices and the impact they are poised to have on company cost structures. Today, Wells Fargo lowered its price target on Martin Marietta (MLM) to $585 from $609 to reflect, you guessed it, Q3 2026 margin pressure from elevated energy costs. It would seem we are not the only ones contemplating this issue, but as we discussed in our opening comments, despite the recent improvement in oil prices, diesel prices are likely to remain at elevated levels through year-end, possibly into Q1 2027.

We’ll continue to watch for similar moves by others on Wall Street, as well as company pre-announcements like we saw last week from Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD).

Evercore Upgrades Ciena

This morning Evercore ISI upgraded EPS All-Stars holding Ciena (CIEN) to Outperform from In Line with a big price target adjustment to $550 from $375. When you hear the reason, you’ll find it meshes very well with the underlying arguments for why we remain bullish on Marvell (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO) and Arista Networks (ANET):

“…connectivity between and inside data centers becoming an increasingly critical gating factor for frontier LLM monetization… the optical networking space is quickly emerging as a critical bottleneck in the AI buildout.“

Index Rebalance Favors SpaceX, Not Builders FirstSource or Trade Desk

On the third Friday in the third month of a quarter, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and others rebalance their indexes, with the changes taking effect the following Monday. That means today, EPS All-Stars holding Bloom Energy (BE) as well as Everpure (P) and Illumina (ILMN) have been added to the S&P 500 while while Molson Coors (TAP), The Trade Desk (TTD), and Builders FirstSource (BLDR) have been removed.

For the funds that track the S&P 500 this means TAP, TTD and BLDR shares have been a likely source of capital so they can buy into BE, P and ILMN shares or true up their positions to match their representation in the S&P 500.

There is also another high-profile change today. We’re referring to SpaceX’s (SPCX) exposure in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) being increased to 2.82% from $1.28%. That more than doubling reflects recent lockup expirations and additional SpaceX shares entering public circulation, with the higher percentage aligning “more accurately with its overall market capitalization.”

Apple iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max Teardown Analysis

With the launch of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max models on Friday, it was only going to be a short time until a teardown analysis appeared. This has been a staple of nearly every new iPhone introduction over the last decade plus.

What investors look for is which companies’ components are inside. Are they ones from existing vendors or new ones? The answers will determine which suppliers will benefit from a robust new model ramp.

The teardown analysis for the iPhone 18 Pro Max completed by Tech Insights shows the usual suppliers, including Skyworks (SWSK), Texas Instruments (TXN), NXP (NXPI), Qorvo (QRVO), and Qualcomm (QCOM).

Here’s the thing, though, all versions of the 18 Pro and Pro Max carry the new Apple-made C2 chips, except for the U.S. model 18 Pro Max. Since Qualcomm’s chip is a little more power-hungry than the C2, it makes sense that Apple only uses it in the U.S.-spec 18 Pro Max, which thanks to eSIM has the biggest battery of any iPhone in the lineup this year. With the iPhone Duo expected to use Apple’s C2 modem chip, the U.S. iPhone 18 Pro Max is likely the last iPhone to use a Qualcomm chip.

The end of the Qualcomm supplier relationship to Apple has been widely known, but what may not have been as clear is that as that relationship comes to an end, Qualcomm only has one new model. And given the fan fare over the iPhone Duo that will start to ship in October, we have to wonder how many iPhone 18 Pro Max models will be sold.

More Pro Portfolio:

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL, ANET, AVGO, BE, CIEN, META, and MRVL.