What Will Be Trump’s Next Move on Tariffs? Let's Game It Out.

Let's follow up on today’s Pro Portfolio video and our discussion about the U.S. Supreme Court striking down President Trump’s tariffs. We’ve seen more than a few headlines on the matter, but we are also starting to see ones about Trump’s options to impose tariffs in different ways. Rest assured, we’ll spare you the political rhetoric as we discuss the potential follow-through by the Trump administration should it opt to stick with a key part of Trump’s economic policy.

As you can see in the table above, there are at least five potential ways in which Trump can impose tariffs in a more defined and, in some cases, limited way. Which course of action among them that Trump opts for is to be determined, but as we noted in the Portfolio Video’s Comments section, Trump and his administration have been eyeing several workarounds and backup plans in case the Supreme Court delivered the verdict it did earlier today.

If it is one of those five potential avenues that Trump utilizes, given some of their limitations, there’s less leeway for the president to impose tariffs at a whim immediately and set the rates as high as he chooses.

That could help reduce market volatility and curb inflation pressures, but it will come down to which avenue the administration opts for.

Once again, the devil will be in the details, and that goes as well for how potential tariff refunds will be handled. While the Supreme Court ruled on Trump’s use of tariffs, it did not spell out if and how those tariffs should be repaid. As of December 14, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection collected an estimated $170 billion in tariffs imposed by Trump using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Could we see a mass refund process? Possibly.

Are we likely to see companies roll back price increases to fend off tariff pressures? Probably not, which means subject to if and how Trump rebuilds his tariff wall, we could see some margin pressures abate.

As all of this has come to light, we’ve seen the market bounce around late morning and early afternoon with the S&P 500 moving past its 50-day moving average near 6896 only to trade lower and then cross above it. As we watch this technical level, let’s remember that for a positive test of crossing the 50-day moving average to be had, we will want to see it remain above that level early next week.

Now to see how Trump responds, and go from there.