Wednesday’s Charts – Best Four-Day Gain for Semis Since March 2020
Semis led the Nasdaq-100 back above its 200-DMA, while the dollar closed at its highest since April 2025.
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This is the companion to tonight’s evening update (AI Bounce Gains Momentum on Positive CoreWeave and Anthropic Updates).
In short, strong results from CoreWeave, and its plan to fund its growth without more high-cost debt, along with headlines that Anthropic’s IPO was oversubscribed at an indicated valuation above earlier estimates, gave another boost to the AI trade lifting indices.
Note: Bond markets were closed for the Veteran’s Day holiday, so no Treasury yield charts today.
Note on all charts the colored lines are moving averages (the average price over the lookback period — days on the daily charts, weeks on the weekly charts):
20 = green
50 = purple
100 = blue
200 = brown
MACD = Moving average convergence/divergence line, a measure of momentum that compares longer term and shorter term momentum to gauge if a move is strengthening or weakening. This is probably my favorite individual indicator.
RSI = Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like) = measures the strength of the move comparing gains to losses over the given lookback window (I use the standard 14 periods).
S&P 500
The S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619, its highest close since November 4, and its low of 7,572 was its fourth straight higher low. It topped its 20- and 100-DMAs intraday (7,626 and 7,622) but closed just below both, and it’s also below its 50-DMA (7,673). The MACD remains in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 50.
Nasdaq Composite
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.60% to 25,466, its highest close since November 4, moving back above its 200-DMA (25,123) a day after slipping below it. It’s still below its 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs (25,807, 26,396 and 26,175). The MACD remains in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 46.
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)
The Nasdaq-100 rose 2.28% to 28,374, its first close above its 200-DMA (28,018) since November 4, after failing at it Monday and Tuesday. It’s still below its 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs (28,733, 29,554 and 29,390). The MACD remains in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 46.
SOX
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) jumped 5.66% to 10,564 after being up as much as 7.9%, bringing its four-day gain to 17%, its best four-day run since March 2020. That has it running into its 200-DMA (10,864), and it’s still below its 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs (10,749, 11,621 and 11,921). The MACD remains in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 46.
Russell 2000 (RUT)
The Russell 2000 rose 0.88% to 2,846, moving back above its 50-DMA (2,831) and holding above its 20- and 200-DMAs (2,795 and 2,810). It’s still below its 100-DMA (2,911). The MACD remains in “cover shorts” positioning, and the RSI is at 54.
Equal-weighted SPX (RSP)
The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 0.82% to 9,016, its highest close since November 4, holding above all its moving averages, including its 20-DMA (8,830). The MACD is in “buy longs” positioning, and the RSI is at 61.
Helene says the relationship between two S&P indexes over the next few weeks “will tell us a lot about what lies ahead” (This Chart Is on an Awesome Run — All Things Being Equal).
VIX
The VIX fell 10.13% to 17.48, its lowest close since November 4, and it’s now down 38% from last Thursday’s close (28.17). The VIX now implies a daily move of about 1.10% over the next 30 days. If you missed it, see Stocks and the VIX Fell Together Tuesday. Here’s What Usually Comes Next.
VVIX
VVIX (the VIX of the VIX) fell 6.37% to 90.47, its lowest close since November 4. The current level is consistent with “moderate” daily moves in the VIX over the next 30 days (historically, normal is 80-100, although we haven’t been below 80 since July 2024), and it remains below the 100 level flagged by Charlie McElligott as indicating higher stress.
1-day VIX
Tuesday’s 1-day VIX implied a move of about 0.88% for Wednesday, and the S&P 500 rose 1.31%. The 1-day VIX then fell 9.39% to 12.64, its lowest close since November 4, implying a move of about 0.80% for Thursday.
WTI futures (/CL)
WTI futures rose 0.57% to $86.53 (including post-market), snapping a two-day slide. They topped their 100- and 200-DMAs intraday, with a high of $88.74, but closed back below both ($87.34 and $87.28), and they remain below the uptrend line from the July low. The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 37.
DXY
The DXY dollar index (which is fixed weighted with a heavy — 57% — allocation to the euro) rose 0.66% to 102.90 (including post-market), its highest close since April 7, 2025, and right at its mid-October intraday high, with the line connecting its highs since December just above. It’s above all its moving averages. The MACD is in “buy longs” positioning, and the RSI is at 63.
Gold futures (/GC)
Gold futures fell 0.74% to $4,001 (including post-market), back to the $4,000 line after dipping as low as $3,990. They’re below all their moving averages, including the 20-DMA ($4,064), and the downtrend line from the March high. The MACD is in “cover shorts” positioning, and the RSI is at 42.
Copper futures (/HG) and the copper ETF (CPER)
Copper futures rose 0.89% to $6.29 (including post-market), back above their 200-DMA ($6.26) and holding their uptrend line. They’re still below their 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs. The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 41.
The copper ETF (CPER) was about flat (-0.03%) at $37.73, below its 200-DMA ($37.98) and the uptrend line, but it again held above Thursday’s low ($37.33).
Natural gas futures (/NG)
Natural gas futures fell 2.46% to $3.22 (including post-market) after topping out just below $3.40 ($3.397) intraday, the level that has capped their moves since mid-February. They remain above all their moving averages. The MACD is in “buy longs” positioning, and the RSI is at 59.
Bitcoin futures
Bitcoin futures rose 1.25% to 74,725, holding above their 100- and 200-DMAs (73,541 and 72,703). They’re still below their 20- and 50-DMAs (79,359 and 80,888) and the $83,000 level. The MACD is in “go short” positioning, and the RSI is at 38.
Market breadth
Nasdaq positive volume was 78.3%, the best since August 7, showing there was real buying pressure behind the 1.6% gain.
NYSE positive volume was weak by comparison at 55.6% on a 0.76% gain in the NYSE Composite.
52-week highs minus lows on the Nasdaq improved to -96 from -212, but that’s still its 53rd straight negative session, extending the longest run since November 2022. On the NYSE, it improved to -55 from -69.
At the time of publication, in terms of securities mentioned, Sethi was long CPER, IWM, QQQ, RSP, SOXL and SPY. In the last 24 hours Sethi went long SOXL and covered his QQQ short and went long.
