Stock Market Today

The S&P 500 fell 0.38% Tuesday as a hot CPI report and two hawkish Fed officials sent Treasury yields sharply higher (The Equity Bounce Runs Into a Hawkish Fed). But the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.4% to 19.45, extending Monday’s 22% drop (An Unprecedented Whipsaw in Investor ‘Fear’). VVIX, which tracks expected swings in the VIX itself, fell 1.8% to 96.63.

A “spot down, vol down” day isn’t unusual by itself. The VIX has fallen on about 23% of S&P 500 down days since 1990. At Tuesday’s size, though, it’s rare: the S&P 500 down at least 0.38% and the VIX down at least 2.4% has happened on just 100 of 2,514 comparable down days, or 4%. There were none in the past year, and Tuesday’s was the first since March 11, 2025.

It tends to show up when volatility is already high and starting to ease. Sixty-nine of those 100 days came with the VIX already at 19 or higher, and 11 came in the 2022 bear market alone.

Seven came within three sessions of a 30%-plus VIX jump, as Tuesday’s did after Thursday’s 70% spike:

• June 25, 1990.
• Sept. 18, 2001, the second session after markets reopened following 9/11.
• Jan. 27, 2014, during an emerging-market selloff.
• Aug. 25, 2015, after China’s devaluation.
• June 27, 2016, after the Brexit vote.
• Feb. 7, 2018, after “Volmageddon.”
• Feb. 26, 2021, during a Treasury selloff.

The S&P 500 was higher a month later all seven times, by 4.2% on average, versus 0.8% for all days since 1990. Three months later it was up six of seven times, by 4.4% on average versus 2.4%. The exception was 1990, when Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August sent stocks sharply lower. The first week was more mixed, with gains in five of seven, and the VIX was lower a month later in six of seven.

What about VVIX? Its data only go back to 2007. On its own, a VVIX drop on an S&P 500 down day that size (102 cases) came before roughly normal returns. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% a month later on average and 2.4% three months later, versus 0.8% and 2.5% for all days since 2007, and it rose less often than usual.

The caveat: These are small samples, so take that into consideration.

In U.S. economic data, with the bond market and government offices closed in honor of Veterans Day, Wednesday brings us only weekly MBA mortgage applications. U.S. stock markets are open.

There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions scheduled.

Just one S&P 500 component reports, and its market cap is under $100B:

After the close: Vylor (VYLR).

Remember to make it a point to thank a veteran today for their service. Thanks @stephen-guilfoyle!

Ex-U.S. highlights include China’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, Germany’s final October CPI, and ECB President Christine Lagarde on a panel at the Paris Peace Forum, with ECB policymakers Joachim Nagel, Martins Kazaks and Gabriel Makhlouf also speaking.

From Christophe Barraud’s international Week Ahead rundown: