Daily Diary

Doug KassDoug Kass
DATE:

Adding to My Short

Adding to my (GRNY) short at $28.51.

Positions: Short GRNY (M)

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 12:49 PM EDT

Stay Tuned

I am in the process of writing a column about the circular financing of AI.

It is revealing and I believe damaging to the bullish thesis — it ties and quantifies the risks in a way I haven’t seen anyone do.

But it is also at a deep dive that I am fearful that I will lose our readers in the first paragraph.  

A part of me wants to complete it but it will take a lot more time.

A part of me wants to complete it and provide a summary.

Stay tuned. 

Positions: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 12:35 PM EDT

Earnings After the Close/Before Open

SOURCE: TipRanks

Earnings After Close 10/07/2026 

Earnings Before the Open 10/08/2026

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 12:20 PM EDT

New Plan

I plan to reshoot into  a rally.

Positions: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 12:08 PM EDT

SPY, QQQ vs. Mag 7

At 11:36 AM:

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 11:50 AM EDT

Market Stats and Charts in the A.M.

– NYSE volume 7% below its one-month average; 

– Nasdaq volume 13% below its one-month average

– VIX index: up 4.53% to 15.69

Breadth

SOURCE: Interactive Brokers

S&P500 Indexes

SOURCE: Barchart

% GAINERS, DECLINERS

SOURCE: TheStreet Pro

Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 Heat Maps

SOURCE TheFly

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 11:14 AM EDT

SPY, QQQ Moves

I moved from medium- to small-sized just now on the indexes:

*SPY $774.44

* QQQ $752.28

Positions: Short SPY s QQQ s

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 10:24 AM EDT

Tweet of the Day

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 9:55 AM EDT

No Covered Shorts

I have covered no shorts today!

Positions: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 9:44 AM EDT

Tech (XLK) Vs. Financials (XLF)

Chart, which is from Interactive Brokers, is from 9:34 a.m. ET:



BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 9:42 AM EDT

ETF Movers in the A.M.

Source: TheStreet Pro

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 9:20 AM EDT

Premarket Percent Movers

Source: TipRanks

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 9:10 AM EDT

Economics Calendar for Today

Source: TipRanks

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 9:03 AM EDT

Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Upside

– LPCN +40% (Health Canada approves TLANDO for testosterone replacement therapy)

– APUS +9.4% (extends a high-volume rally tied to the BlockAssure agreement to build and operate the AssureChain insurance network)

– PENG +4.3% (Q4 beat and FY27 sales and EPS outlook topped prior guidance and Street expectations on accelerating AI-infrastructure demand)

– CNQ +1.6%, APA +1.2%, OXY +1.0%, COP +1.0% (oil producers rise as crude climbs back above $100 a barrel)

Downside

– CRBU -42% (launches a strategic-alternatives review, discontinues two allogeneic CAR-T programs and plans substantial workforce reductions)

– BULL -30% (bipartisan House panel report says structural China ties pose national-security and US-user-data risks)

– STM -5.4%, TER -3.0%, ASML -3.0%, AMAT -2.7%, LRCX -3.0%, MU -2.8% (chip stocks fall in the risk-off technology tape as oil-driven inflation concerns pressure rate-sensitive growth shares)

– BMNR -5.0%, CRCL -4.0%, MSTR -3.8%, COIN -3.1%, HOOD -3.0% (crypto-linked stocks fall as digital-asset prices weaken)

– AAOI -4.8%, CIEN -3.8%, MTSI -3.0%, COHR -3.2%, GLW -3.3% (AI-networking and optical winners pull back after sharp recent rallies as technology exposure is reduced)

– DB -4.7%, SAN -4.2%, HSBC -3.9%, NWG -3.5%, BCS -3.3% (European-bank ADRs fall as oil-driven inflation and sovereign-bond stress deepen fiscal concerns, with UK lenders also facing budget-tax fears)

– STZ -3.9% (quarter beat, but adjusted FY guidance was merely reiterated and beer depletions declined)

– BE -3.8%, CEG -3.5%, EME -1.9% (AI-power and data-center infrastructure winners give back part of recent gains amid the broader risk-off rotation)

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 8:59 AM EDT

Another Signpost That Rescheduling of Cannabis Is Likely

The IRS proclamation that they will looking at 280E guidelines (earlier this week) and the DEA info below seem to be concrete signposts that rescheduling of adult-use cannabis is very likely over the near term:

DEA Launches New Registration Forms For Medical Marijuana Manufacturers, Distributors And Testing Labs – Marijuana Moment

I added to MSOS, GLAS and GTBIF yesterday.

Positions: MSOS common VL calls S GLAS S GTBIF S

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 8:35 AM EDT

Still On The Sidelines With Gold

* As we treat it as a “trading sardine”… and not as a foundational long

I treat all commodities and commodity-related equities as “trading sardines.”

While I view gold as a prime beneficiary of the profilgate spending in Washington, D.C. (and continued currency debasement) – I still see precious metals as a trade and not (yet) as a foundational position, particularly with interest rates on the ascent.

We traded in and out (profitably) three times in GLD over the last 45 days or so – buying weakness and selling strength.

This morning is GLD is down by almost  five beaners as the US dollar advances higher and rates resume their rise:

  Positions: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 8:20 AM EDT

First Time, Long Time

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 8:05 AM EDT

Chart of the Day

 *  And second level thinking…

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 7:55 AM EDT

My GRNY Short and Bitcoin

I am clueless and not an authority about the price of bitcoin but this drop (last night) was abrupt:

I have been adding to my @GRNY short – which has a lot of crypto exposure.

Positions: Short GRNY M 

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 7:45 AM EDT

Diesel Prices Continue North

In my consumer is spent up and not pent up series I have discussed the impending weakness in the consumer — sticky and cumulative inflation (since 2020), a five month decline in real wages, a drawdown in the savings rate and the weakness in housing prices. 

Should energy prices continue their ascent I am fearful of an abrupt drop in personal consumption.

Moreover, the price of oil is likely to be a meaningful political issue in the mid terms.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 7:35 AM EDT

The Stench of Bad Breadth

I have been recently highlighting the deterioration in market breadth.

The stench of bad breadth was conspicuous yesterday:

For now, the S&P and the Nasdaq don’t care that the Russell isn’t crowing. 

My guess/bet is that this is not a permanent condition.

Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 7:25 AM EDT

El-Erian on the Global Rise in Interest Rates

The rise in interest rates is a global phenomenon which few are focused on.

Again, today, rates are on the rise:

Many in the Comments section are asking about buying Treasuries now.

However, given the stickiness of inflation, the continued mad rush of the AI spend, a sovereign retreat away from our Treasuries from non-U.S. nations (for political and non-political reasons), the (still) lack of fiscal discipline in Washington D.C. and the massive supply of Treasury and (AI) related corporate offerings, I am not there yet, even as the real interest rate expands.

Stay tuned on this…

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 7:10 AM EDT

If They Build It, Will They Come?

* Not necessarily…

“If you build it, he will come.”

 – Ray Kinsella, Field of Dreams  

If You Build It, He Will Come – Field of Dreams (1/9) Movie CLIP (1989) HD – YouTube

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 7:00 AM EDT

Market Musings

* I continue to be short in a bull market…

Once again, I thought underneath the hood there was less than meet’s the eye.

Though the averages showed a robust gain, Nasdaq breadth was negative:

And, Nvidia (NVDA), which was +$5 per share on the day at its high, basically closed flat.

Treasuries were modestly higher but it looked more like a dead-cat bounce than a reversal to lower yields. This morning TLT is -$0.40, so Tuesday’s slightly lower bond yields have been reversed.

“Forward thinking” financials continued to show no spark.

Finally, despite the record high in the indices, there were twice as many lows as highs on the NYSE:

We moved from small to medium-sized short the indices on yesterday’s market advance.

Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 6:45 AM EDT

Investors Buy High

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 6:35 AM EDT

Programming Note

I am in route to NYC to take a family member to have a checkup after surgery.

I will be operating on a laptop today so my posts will be shorter and less frequent.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 6:10 AM EDT

More Overnight Pressure on Bond Prices

* And higher yields…

And this:

Meanwhile, the equity risk premium deteriorates further — lending a further argument to lower forward market returns.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 6:00 AM EDT

Oscillator Oversold, But Less So

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains in a (less) oversold state at -3.86% vs. -4.56%.

I am medium short SPY currently.

Position: Short SPY (M)

BY Doug Kass · Oct 7, 2026, 5:54 AM EDT