Wall Street’s absurd price targets for SpaceX // Strategy is being forced to sell its bitcoin / 

Position: Short SPCX (S)

I have to drive to an out of town research meeting with a company and will be leaving for the day at about 2 p.m.

A headsup.

Positions: None 

Nvidia (NVDA) is trading at $202.10. I am buying monthly puts for August.

Read “More Tales” for my rationale.  

Note: The entire Halftime crew of panelists are long this name, with SLINK buying for the first time today.

Position: Long NVDA puts

This is what I call an overlay in the horse betting game:

Weed rescheduled by…? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarket

I buy at 24%!

Position: None

I moved up from very small to small short the indices:

* SPY $750.01

* QQQ $721.74

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

Bloom’s Big Lie

Position: Short BE S

– NYSE volume 25% below its one-month average; 

– Nasdaq volume 36% below its one-month average; 

– VIX index: down 1.95% to 16.57

Positions: None.

Chart from 10:13 a.m.

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

Yes, kinetic activity again in the Middle East but watch what’s going on in Russia too

While we’re back to watching the kinetic activity in the Middle East and how that might again impact energy markets and shipping thru the Strait, I’m beginning to believe that the oil product situation is getting worse because seemingly every day Ukraine is blowing up a Russian refinery and energy infrastructure there.

After months of attacks, it seems that they are happening more frequently and Russia is feeling it big time. Yesterday I’m reading this from The Independent, “Ukranian drones have reportedly targeted Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk, deep within Siberia, in what Kyiv’s military and Russian local authorities confirm was one of the longest range attacks of the ongoing conflict. The strike this week underscores Ukraine’s expanding reach. These persistent drone assaults are now intensifying fuel shortages across Russia, leading to widespread reports of escalating prices and lengthy queues at petrol stations throughout numerous regions.”

This followed a July 2nd attack on NORSI, Russia’s 4th largest oil refinery, owned by Lukoil.

https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/russia-fuel-shortages-ukraine-drone-attacks-energy-b3010966.html

And in response yesterday, I see diesel futures spiking after reading “the Russian government announced a short term export ban on diesel…The export ban, which will last until July 31, came after Ukraine pounded Russian oil refineries with long range drone strikes, which caused a spreading fuel shortage and long lines at gas stations.”

As to why that matters here? “Until recently, Russia was the second biggest exporter of diesel after the US. Last year, the country supplied about 11% of global seaborne diesel, according to ship tracking company Vortexa.”

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-08-2026/card/diesel-futures-surge-after-russia-bans-exports-jwf5Ce0yXgRZVHueIfpy

Diesel futures ended up 9% yesterday on the CME. In Europe, they jumped by 12%.

US Diesel Futures as of yesterday’s close

With respect to container shipping rates, which I’ve been highlighting for the past few months the consistent rise in costs, they were up slightly this week, though holding its gains. The Shanghai to NY at $7,904, up $2 is at the highest since September 2024. Shanghai to LA saw the price rise by $133 w/o/w, or by 2% to $6,482.

Shanghai to NY

As part of our holdings of a bunch of consumer staples stocks, we own Pepsi that just reported where they beat top line but missed bottom line by a penny. This from their earnings release ahead of this morning’s call:

“Net revenue increased 6.4% due to 2.4% organic revenue growth, a 2.2 percentage point benefit from FX translation and a 1.8 percentage point net benefit from acquisitions and divestitures. Organic revenue growth reflects the benefits associated with effective net pricing and a contribution from organic volume growth.”

From the Levi Strauss conference call and whose stock is down pre-market because of seemingly more conservative 2nd half guidance:

“Our international markets continue to demonstrate strong momentum, led by a 12% increase in Asia, while the US delivered a 6% increase.”

“Our consumer continues to be resilient. And has reflected another quarter of strong results. It’s broad based across channels, geographies and categories. So, you think of the beat, it’s geographically, it came from the US and Asia. Europe was as expected. It came from wholesale and came from women…we are seeing strength across value, core and premium.”

They continue to be hurt by tariffs. “The tariff environment continues to be uncertain and our updated guidance continues to assume incremental US tariffs on imports from China at a 30% rate and the rest of the world at 20%. Our guidance does not assume any benefit from potential tariff refund, which are approximately $80 million paid to date.”

Inflation stats out of China were about as expected. PPI rose 4.1% y/o/y while CPI was higher by 1% ex food and energy. The former reflects cost pressures being felt everywhere while the latter has been subdued for the past few years, good for a consumer that is being weighed down by the drop in wealth in residential real estate.

Positions: None.

New short Bloom Energy (BE) at (in premarket at $265.39).

More next week.

Positions: Short BE VS

Back shorting Morgan Stanley (MS) at $223.04.

Starting small and scaling on strength.

Positions: Short MS VS

Back shorting (GRNY) $27.80 and (JOET) $46.

Short GRNY S JOET S

Back shorting the indexes after the two day rally:

* SPY (SPY) $748.64

* QQQ (QQQ) $722.34

Positions: Short SPY VS QQQ VS

Check out the brutal divergence between the hyperscalers and the memory equities this morning!  (AMZN -$4, GOOGL -$5, META -$20 , MSFT -$8 awhile chip stocks are the “world’s fair.”)

This back and forth (and lack of predictability) is the reason I have been shying away from shorting the Nasdaq recently. 

I am old enough to remember when every panelist on Fin TV was long MAG7. (They probably sold the top!)

For emphasis, this is a superb market to trade opportunistically but not so great for the buy and hold crowd.

Tough for homegamers.

LONG AMZN VS GOOGL VS MSFT VS

I have in an 9:30 a.m. meeting.

Should take about thirty minutes.

Radio silence.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Upside:

-AEHR +18% (receives follow-on FOX-XP wafer-level burn-in system order from lead silicon photonics customer)

-ALNY +18% (strength following disappointing Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform data from AZN, IONS)

-ENVX +17% (appoints Michael Vyvoda as COO)

-SMPL +15% (earnings, guidance)

-BBIO +11% (strength following disappointing Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform data from AZN, IONS)

-FCEL +11% (signs MoU with Siemens for fuel cell-based power generation collaboration)

-CECO +6.9% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Initiates CECO with Overweight, price target: $130)

-MU +6.7% (plans up to $3B investment to strengthen US semiconductor supply chain in collaboration with GlobalWafers)

-UCTT +6.5% (appoints Michael Keogh as CFO)

-BE +6.2% (rejects Hunterbrook Media report claims on financial results, accounting and scandium oxide supply)

-CBRS +5.8% (expands European data center capacity)

-MRVL +5.8% (sector strength)

-SNDK +5.1% (sector strength; hearing price target raise from Wedbush)

-TENX +5.1% (to present LEVEL trial data at ESC Congress 2026)

-NBIS +5.0% (strength following META headline on doubling compute capacity)

-INMD +4.8% (Steel Partners offers to acquire InMode at $16.75/shr in cash)

-PENG +4.6% (earnings, guidance)

-AVGO +4.4% (strength following META headline on doubling compute capacity)

-MARA +4.3% (acquires Matagorda County, Texas powered land site from HIF)

-CRWV +3.7% (strength following META headline on doubling compute capacity)

-AMD +3.5% (sector strength)

-CAT +3.0% (momentum)

-FIVE +2.4% (hearing Mizuho Securities Raised FIVE to Outperform from Neutral, price target: $220)

Downside:

-IONS -21% (Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform misses primary endpoint for eplontersen in ATTR-CM)

-FBRX -8.2% (FB102 Phase 1b vitiligo study data)

-AZN -7.8% (Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform misses primary endpoint for eplontersen in ATTR-CM)

-IBM -4.8% (SBUX reportedly uses AI to develop in-house software solutions to reduce reliance on Microsoft and IBM software)

-CRM -4.6% (KeyBanc Capital Markets Cuts CRM to Sector Weight from Overweight)

-RXT -4.1% (expands Palantir partnership for regulated and sovereign enterprise AI; files mixed shelf; indeterminate amount; earnings, guidance)

-LEVI -4.0% (earnings, guidance)

-META -3.8% (AI chip going to production)

-MAT -2.7% (Goldman Sachs Cuts MAT to Sell from Neutral, price target: $12)

-PEP -2.5% (earnings, guidance)

A pattern: Memory/semis up big, memory/semis down big, then up big….

Wash, rinse and repeat.

In the market without memory from day to day.

Great for dispassionate and opportunistic traders – not so great for the buy and hold crowd.

Positions: None.

Cramer fave Salesforce (CRM) is -$7 lower on a brokerage price target downgrade:

Doug’s Daily Diary — Monday, July 6, 2026 | TheStreet Pro

Positions: None.

TREASURY AUCTIONS

11:00AM: Treasury announces a 3 and 6 month bill auction; 

11:30AM; Treasury hosts a $100B 4 and a $95 8 Week Bill Auction;

1:00PM: Treasury hosts a $22B 30-Year Bond Auction; 

2:00PM: Treasury buyback (liq support)

FED SPEAKERS 

9:00AM: Fed Bank of New York President Williams (Voter) participates in keynote moderated discussion before “The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning” Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NYC (Other details TBA.Open to in-person press.) 

1:30PM: Fed Bank of Dallas President Logan (Voter) moderates “Market Liquidity and Leverage in a Digital Age” panel before “The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning” Workshop co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, NYC (Other details TBA. Open to in-person press)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR TODAY

Position: None

* That’s my bet…

Most Marijuana Consumers Don’t Believe Trump Administration Will Complete Rescheduling This Year, Poll Shows – Marijuana Moment

I will play the PASS LINE on rescheduling this year.

Position: None

Wolf Street howls about AI’s contribution to the domestic economy.

Position: None

Every now and then, I get a little bit lonely
And you’re never coming ’round
(Turn around)
Every now and then, I get a little bit tired
Of listening to the sound of my tears
(Turn around)
Every now and then, I get a little bit nervous
That the best of all the years have gone by
(Turn around)
Every now and then, I get a little bit terrified
And then I see the look in your eyes

– Bonnie Tyler, Total Eclipse of the Heart

A daughter of a coal miner born in Wales, she sounded like a combination of John Fogerty and Rod Stewart.

I thought about her most famous song, Total Eclipse of the Heart, many times in the context of my ursine market view:

Together we can take it to the end of the line
Your love is like a shadow on me all of the time (all of the time)

I don’t know what to do and I’m always in the dark
We’re living in a powder keg and giving off sparks

RIP Bonnie Tyler.

Bonnie Tyler, singer famed for ‘Total Eclipse of the Heart,’ dies at 75

Position: None

Consensus long Exxon Mobil (XOM) has its price target reduced by JPMorgan from $173 to $158 this morning.

(Caution: This is Halftime’s Jim Lebenthal’s favorite energy stock).

Position: None 

Despite pleas of broadening out, the equity market is teetering on a disbroadening.
Here were yesterday’s stats:

* SPY    -0.29%

* QQQ  +0.27%

* IWM   -0.89% 

* RSP   -1.22%

To me, key to the broadening-out thesis would be continued strength in financials, which was nowhere to be found:

* JPM -$8

* C – $3

* KRE challenging (to the downside) some important support.

Position: Short JPM (S), C (S)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains in overbought (as it’s been for weeks) at 2.16% vs. 3.18%.

Position: None