Sticking With This SoFi Price Target After ‘Remarkable’ Bounce Back Results
The financial services firm appears to be cooking with gas.
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On Tuesday morning, portfolio holding SoFi Technologies (SOFI) released the firm’s third quarter financial results. Those results were solid. The firm posted a GAAP EPS of $0.18 on revenue of $1.385 billion. These top- and bottom-line results both beat Wall Street’s expectations. For those keeping score, the revenue print beat Wall Street by more than $1 billion and was good for year-over-year growth of 44%.
I have been behind this stock for quite a while and caught a few snickers when I made it my “stock of the year” for 2026. After having picked wildly successful stocks of the year for three years running coming into this year, my pick was highly anticipated by the public and the snickers have been warranted as the stock closed on Monday night, down 44% year to date. My arrogance came home to roost. So, we adapt. I have traded the stock this year as the buy-and-hold game had punched me in the teeth.
The thing is that the corporate execution has been excellent. The growth is outstanding. My timing was obviously wrong regarding the stock-of-the-year selection, but the stock is still up almost 100% from the time that I placed it in the old “Stocks Under $10” portfolio, which was the $10K Portfolio’s predecessor. The pick was wrong for 2026. The stock, I still believe, is right for the portfolio. Readers well know that I have a lot of faith in CEO Anthony Noto.
During the quarter, member growth was up 35% to 17.1 million individual accounts while product sales were up 44% to 26.7 million products sold. The implication? Member growth is hot and once inside the door, customers like the services so much, they add to how engaged with the firm they are.
CEO Anthony Noto
On the quarter, Noto commented in the press release:
“We had exceptional Q3 results against the backdrop of any environment, but they are even more remarkable given how 2026 has unfolded. Our focus is simple. We are adding more members, who are using more products, and generating more revenue per product to create the most value for our shareholders over the long run. In less than a decade, we have transformed SoFi from a single-product company into an everything financial app with eight different businesses each generating over $100 million in annualized revenue. Our conviction in the opportunity ahead has never been greater.”
Segment Performance
Financial Services generated revenue of $525.095 million (+25%), resulting in a segment contribution profit of $261.014 million (+16%) as segment margin dropped to 50% from 54%. Provision for credit losses was $14.737 million, up 60% from the year-ago period.
Technology Platform generated revenue of $87.368 million (-24%), resulting in a segment contribution profit of $14.203 million (-56%) as segment margin dropped to 16% from 28%.
Lending generated revenue of $821.345 million (+66%), resulting in a segment contribution profit of $454.934 million (+74%) as segment margin improved to 55% from 53%.
Guidance
For the full year, SOFI now projects a GAAP of $0.61, up a penny from prior guidance and better than the $0.59 that Wall Street was looking for. 2027 full year EPS is now seen at $0.90 (consensus was $0.82). This implies earnings growth of 47.5% next year. Adjusted revenue is now seen at $5.04 billion for this full year and at $6.4 billion (Wall Street was at $6.14 billion) for 2027, implying 27% growth next year. Expectations for adjusted EBITDA for 2026 have been increased to a rough $1.66 billion from about $1.6 billion. This guidance is being seen as simply fantastic and is the reason that the stock is up more than 10% ahead of the opening bell.
Opinion
I couldn’t be happier with what SOFI released on Tuesday morning. The quarter was excellent. The lending segment absolutely ripped the cover off of the ball. Guidance is far better than a rational man could have hoped for. Noto’s got the firm cooking with gas, in my opinion.
Readers will see that SOFI had recently found support at what is a precise 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March 2025 through November 2025 rally. That’s interesting and potentially meaningful.
This year, readers will see a flat basing period of consolidation that has lasted since the spring. RSI is weak but has stabilized. The daily MACD appears to be at a place where the histogram of the nine-day EMA could go positive and the 12-day EMA could cross above the 26-day EMA. Both of those developments would represent independently bullish signals. Taking and holding the 50-day SMA at $16.70 would get the professionals behind this rally. The portfolio is reiterating its $24 target price but will likely take a little something off on this rally in order to create some cash.
Note to Readers
Below, readers may notice that I bought 10 shares of Peloton (PTON) on Friday at $6.30 with a $6.25 limit. That’s not a misprint. I bought those shares in error (my own) and decided to keep the shares in inventory rather than cover the error.
Friday’s Intention vs Actual Trade
Intention: Purchase 10 shares of PTON at $5.25 (limited) or better
Actual trade: Bought 10 shares of PTON at $5.30 (in error)
Tuesday’s Intention
Sell 25 shares of SOFI at or around the last sale of $16.14
Current Positions
Long 60 shares of (ASPN) at $5.1083. Target price: $10. Last sale: $5.23.
Long 50 shares of (EVLV) at $5.33.92. Target price: $7.50. Last sale: $4.42.
Long 170 shares of (OCUL) at $8.1627. Target Price: $12. Last sale: $6.55.
Short one OCUL $9 December 18 call at $0.80. Last sale: $0.23.
Long 310 shares of (ONDS) at $7.7674. Target price: $12. Last sale: $6.26.
Long 110 shares of (PL) at $19.7084. Target price: $20. Last sale: $13.99.
Short one PL $17 November 19 call at $1.70, Last sale: $0.23.
Long 70 shares of (PTON) at $5.0654. Target price: $9. Last close: $5.25.
Long 14 shares of (RKLB) at $59.7914. Target price: $84. Last close: $54.64.
Long 150 shares of (SOFI) at $15.90. Target price: $24. Last close: $16.14.
Cash: $32.84.
Portfolio value: $8,634.79, -13.6% from inception on March 24.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PTON, RKLB and SOFI.
