New Ocular Therapeutix Price Target After Positive FDA Update
We’re taking a close look after earnings.
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On Monday morning, portfolio holding Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) released the firm’s fiscal third quarter financial results. For the period ended September 30, Ocular Therapetiux posted a GAAP EPS of -$0.42 on revenue of $12.874 million. Across the board, these top- and bottom-line results all fell decisively short of Wall Street’s consensus view while the top line was “good” enough for a year-over-year contraction of 11.2%.
The firm informed investors that the AXPAXLi NDA submission for wet AMD remains on track for 4Q 2026 following the upcoming SOL-R interim Week 52 safety analysis. Several FDA interactions, including most recently the September 2026 Pre-NDA Meeting, reaffirmed alignment on the firm’s submission package pathway.
Dr. Pravin U. Dugel, who is president and CEO of Ocular Therapeutix, commented:
“Frequent injections define today’s wet AMD treatment experience, and we believe AXPAXLI has the transformative potential to drastically reduce the burden on patients and caregivers. Following our positive pre-NDA meeting in September, we remain aligned with the FDA on our planned submission in the fourth quarter. Recent clinical results from our peers underscore the critical importance of molecular potency, sustained durability, and thoughtful clinical trial design – principles that have guided our AXPAXLI development strategy from the outset.”
Dugel added:
“(Recent) findings are particularly encouraging for SOL-R, which was deliberately designed with the goal of randomizing patients with minimal early retinal fluid and fluid variability. Preliminary analyses of SOL-R screening indicate that approximately 20% of otherwise eligible subjects were excluded from randomization due to early persistent retinal fluid or fluid variability. By contrast, this volatile group of patients were not excluded from SOL-1. The combination of axitinib’s differentiated potency, AXPAXLI’s disease control and durability shown in SOL-1, and our disciplined patient selection strategy further strengthens our confidence in the likelihood of SOL-R’s success.”
Operations
As revenue contracted 11.2% to $12.874 million, costs and expenses increased 33% to $110.732 million. That left the firm’s operating income/loss at -$97.858 million (down from -$68.698 million). After interest and other income and expenses, net income/loss landed at -$94.782 million (down from -$68.418 million). That works out to a GAAP EPS of -$0.42, fully diluted, down from the year-ago comparison of -$0.38.
Balance Sheet
Ocular ended the quarter with a cash position of $530.612 million and inventories of $4.26 million. That left current assets at $574.6 million. Current liabilities add up to $63.017 million, including no short-term debt. Ocular’s current and quick ratios stand at an extremely muscular 9.12 and 9.05, respectively. In short, Ocular has built a fortress around the business.
Total assets amount to $605.647 million, of which nothing is labeled as either goodwill or “other intangibles.” Total liabilities less equity comes to $164.698 million. There are longer term notes payable of $73.535 million on the balance sheet, which is dwarfed by the cash position. This balance sheet is solid gold.
Opinion
The stock is trading lower on the disappointing headline numbers. We see the increased expenses. The strength of the balance sheet reaffirms our reason why we are here and our belief that these storms might be weathered.
Monday morning’s selloff has not necessarily blown up the double-bottom pattern of bullish reversal that I showed readers two weeks ago. This could be a triple bottom, which does not change the nature of the setup. The 21-day EMA has acted as resistance since late October, implying that swing trades are not yet behind the stock.
Relative strength had been rising. That will change on Monday morning. The daily MACD, below the chart, had been flashing more bullish signals of late. The histogram of the nine-day EMA is now above the zero-bound. In addition, the 12-day EMA had overtaken the 26-day EMA, but with both in negative territory. We’ll see what Monday morning’s action does there. The portfolio intends to add on Monday but is reducing its target price from $12 to $10.
Upcoming Portfolio Earnings
Rocket Lab (RKLB), Monday, November 9
Consensus: adjusted EPS of -$0.02 on revenue of $257.2 million
Evolv Technologies (EVLV), Tuesday, November 10
Consensus: adjusted EPS of -$0.02 on revenue of $45.6 million
Ondas Inc (ONDS), Friday, November 13
Consensus: adjusted EPS of -$0.09 on revenue of $148.1 million
Friday’s Intentions vs Actual Trades
Intention: Purchase 30 shares of (PTON) at or close to the last sale of $5.67
Actual trade: Bought 30 shares of PTON at $5.75
Intention: Purchase 20 shares of (ASPN) at or close to the last sale of $5.14
Actual trade: Bought 20 shares of ASPN at $4.78
Monday’s Intentions
Purchased 30 shares of OCUL at or close to the last sale of $6.07
Current Positions
Long 80 shares of (ASPN) at $5.0263. Target price: $8. Last sale: $4.88.
Long 50 shares of (EVLV) at $5.33.92. Target price: $7.50. Last sale: $4.60.
Long 170 shares of (OCUL) at $7.9692. Target price: $10. Last sale: $6.07.
Long 330 shares of (ONDS) at $7.5402. Target price: $12. Last sale: $5.40.
Long 70 shares of (PTON) at $5.0654. Target price: $9. Last close: $5.64.
Long 20 shares of (RKLB) at $50.942. Target price: $84. Last close: $53.83.
Long 150 shares of (SOFI) at $15.947. Target price: $24. Last close: $16.32.
Cash: $655.81.
Portfolio value: $8,182.14, -18.2% from inception on March 24.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PTON, RKLB and SOFI.
