Will CPI Trigger a Bigger Fed Move?: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Tuesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a mixed market open.

1.… oil prices continued to decline on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said military action against Iran was not needed for now. His comments eased concerns about possible disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East. Trump also said he would delay further strikes on Iran. (TipRanks)

The continued drop in oil is lifting equity futures this morning, while data from AAA put the average price of gas below what’s been called the psychologically important level of $4 per gallon. While the downtrend in oil is lifting most of the market, we’ll want to revisit those equity futures once we have the October CPI data in hand shortly after 8:30 AM ET.

2. US consumer prices likely increased at a moderate pace in October, but inflation probably remained stubbornly high, leaving the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates next month. The anticipated slowdown in the Consumer Price Index would largely reflect a retreat ‌in gasoline prices. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish year-over-year inflation readings when it releases the report on Tuesday because last year’s federal government shutdown prevented the collection of consumer price data in October 2025, leaving no comparison base. (Reuters)

The lack of year-over-year figures will make it bit more difficult to get a read on inflation, and this likely means we’ll hear folks argue what annualized headline and core October CPI figures show. The smarter methodology would be to annualize a trailing three-month average of the headline and core figures.

When we do that, we’ll be thinking of the comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller in a speech earlier today. Waller said he would support a 25-basis point increase in the federal funds rate at the December FOMC meeting even if October inflation improves from September. If inflation is substantially higher than expected, he said “more robust action” may be needed. With a bevy of Fed speakers between today’s CPI report and Friday’s October PPI data, we’ll want to see what the data say and look for any subtle or not so subtle changes in what those speakers say.

3. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, or TSMC, clocked a sharp increase in its October revenue, as artificial intelligence development continued to buoy demand for advanced chips. TSMC’s October sales grew 59.7% year-on-year to T$586.89 billion, the company said in a statement on Tuesday. (Yahoo! Finance)

That October figure from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reaccelerated from the modest sequential dip reported for September and steps up the pace of year-over-year growth that averaged 51% in Q3 2026. While TSM does not report end-market figures on a monthly basis, that step-up points to continued strong demand for AI and data center and the benefit of new smartphone models heading into the holiday shopping season. We see the results as positive for the Portfolio’s AI and data-center chip plays as well as known TSM customer Apple (AAPL).

4. Boeing Commercial Airplanes plans to cut 5% of its workforce as it struggles to increase jetliner production output, the division’s chief, Stephanie Pope, told employees on Monday in an internal memo. “As shared in our third-quarter earnings, we need to reset the pace of our production rate ramps to provide our factories and supply chain partners additional time to achieve stability. Adjusting our production schedules ⁠and reducing aircraft output puts us in an overstaffed position,” Pope said in the memo, which was reviewed by Reuters. (Reuters)

While Boeing (BA) is laying off workers and reducing production rates, Embraer (EMBJ), the third largest plane maker behind Airbus (EADSF) and Boeing, lifted its 2026 free cash flow estimate to $700 million or higher, up from $400+ million. Embraer forecasts delivering 80-85 commercial jets and 160-170 executive aircraft this year up from 78 commercial jets and 155 executive aircraft in 2025. This not only increases the likelihood that Boeing’s issues are company specific, but also that its shares are likely to be dead money for some time. That suggests putting our fishing poles in more fertile waters.

5. Anthropic plans to forge ahead with its initial public offering later this month despite recent market volatility tied to artificial-intelligence investments. The Claude maker has meetings lined up with investors this week and is aiming for its shares to start trading Thursday or Friday next week, according to people familiar with the matter. Investors are eagerly awaiting Anthropic’s targeted valuation range, which it is expected to unveil in a filing early this week. A week ago, investors anticipated the company targeting a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, but after the steep selloff in AI companies Thursday, some major investors are now pushing for it to be lower. (WSJ)

Anthropic’s filing, which is expected to come in the next few days, will indicate the number of shares it plans to offer and a price target. The chatter already points to a far lower valuation following the steep selloff in AI companies, but how low the management team is willing to go will, in our view, determine whether Anthropic ultimately prices the offering or opts to delay it. We continue to think that what Anthropic says during the roadshow will influence the deal’s price talk and overall demand for the shares.

6. CoreWeave is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on Tuesday, November 10, followed by a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET — and the central question is not whether demand for AI computing remains strong. It is whether the company’s improving operating margins are expanding fast enough to outrun a balance sheet that now carries roughly $51.6 billion in total obligation… (TechTimes)

Normally, the market would be focused on CoreWeave’s (CRWV) quarterly results and guidance, including plans to bring on contracted power, data center additions in the coming quarters, and its backlog. While those will still be key items and a fall from the $104.2 billion backlog figure reported last quarter a tough pill to swallow, where CoreWeave is on the conversion of backlog to revenue and ramping margins will be the focal point.

For its Q2 2026, CoreWeave delivered $128 million in adjusted operating income on $2.6 billion in revenue, which equates to a 4.9% operating margin. Consensus figures from S&P Global Intelligence call for CoreWeave to deliver $245.2 million in operating income for Q3 2026 on $3.56 billion in revenue leading to an operating margin just shy of 7%. For the current quarter, the consensus figures point to an operating margin near 14%.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (October), Consumer Price Index (October), Core CPI (October), Real Earnings (October), Redbook Same-Store Sales (Weekly), WASDE Report (November), NY Fed Total Household Debt (Q3), 10-Year Note Auction, API Crude Oil Stock Change (Weekly).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Embraer (EMBJ), eToro (ETOR), Hesai (HSAI), Honda Motor (HMC), Legend Biotech (LEGN), On Holding (ONON), Sea Limited (SE), TransDigm (TDG), Venture Global (VG), Vodafone (VOD), Wix.com (WIX). PM – Alcon (ALC), CoreWeave (CRWV), Ecopetrol (EC), Firefly Aerospace (FLY), Grocery Outlet (GO), Mercury Systems (MRCY), Petrobras (PBR), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), Sonos (SONO), StubHub (STUB).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL and BA.