Weekly Roundup: The Market Rebounded and Now We'll See if Santa Claus Comes This Year
We realigned the Portfolio’s chip holdings, added to a Silver Tsunami play and raised a few price targets this week.
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The market selloff that began last week continued at the start of this week for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. That move lower continued until both of those market barometers bounced off of their respective 50-day moving averages to close the week modestly higher.
A few factors helped the market find its footing and ultimately regain some of last week’s lost ground. The confluence and culmination of economic reports received this week showed the labor market continued to soften, while the November CPI report showed some unexpected progress on the inflation front.
To that, we can add Micron’s (MU) solid beat-and-raise quarter as well as its supportive outlook for AI and data center demand. Meanwhile, quarterly results and guidance from Accenture (ACN) and other AI-related developments point to continued adoption in the enterprise and with consumers. Those developments, along with reports that the Trump administration is reviewing letting Nvidia (NVDA) sell its advanced AI chips to China, led to a rebound in what folks refer to as the "AI trade."
With things quieting down next week from a news flow perspective and a trading volume one as well, we’ll be using the remaining trading days in 2025 to prepare for what’s to come in the months ahead. That will see us revisit the Portfolio’s holdings and their prospects for the coming year as we get to work on the upcoming December Monthly Roundup. Hand in hand with that will be updating consensus EPS expectations for the S&P 500 as well as the Portfolio’s holdings.
We’ll also begin the process that will drive the basket reconstitution for the EPS Diplomats strategy. As a reminder, on December 31, we will exit any positions that aren’t carried over, and then on January 2, we will add those that make the cut for the current quarter. As we make those additions, we’ll also reset the weightings for any holdover positions.
And because things are poised to be on the quiet side, we’ll keep our eyes and ears open for any negative earnings pre-announcements that companies may try to squeak by when fewer people are watching. Should we see any, we’ll connect the dots back to the Portfolio, and if any action on our part is necessary, we’ll do what needs to be done.
Enjoy your weekend, and Sunday’s bowl of more light-hearted fare. See you back here, bright and early on Monday. Not only will we be holding Office Hours on Monday, but we’ll also be sharing a fresh batch of Portfolio signals.
Catching Up on the Portfolio This Week
The Pro Portfolio’s overall performance was little changed this week as gains in Dutch Bros (BROS) , Palantir (PLTR) , Meta (META) , Nvidia and Arista Networks (ANET) were offset by declines in ServiceNow (NOW) , Eaton (ETN) and Labcorp (LH) shares. The basket of stocks that comprises our EPS Diplomats strategy continued to outpace the S&P 500 since we started that strategy in mid-November by a factor of more than three-to-one.
We started the week picking up more shares of Welltower (WELL) for the Portfolio at $188.31. Following that trade, the Portfolio’s position size of roughly 2.0% remained one of the smaller ones, and we’ll continue to look for opportunities to boost our exposure, tapping further into the Silver Tsunami tailwind and senior housing pain point.
Midweek, we pulled the trigger and recalibrated the Portfolio’s overall chip exposure, shedding some Nvidia, Marvell (MRVL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) shares to bring in some Broadcom (AVGO) ones. With that trade, we established a $445 price target and $275 panic point for AVGO shares. We also shared that, should we see AVGO shares hover and build a base near current levels, that would allow us to build up a position over time. If AVGO shares pulled back and closed that gap, we would use that to increase the Portfolio’s position at a quicker pace. Should we see AVGO shares linger and build a base near current levels, that would allow us to build up a position over time. If AVGO shares pulled back and closed the gap near $305 we see in the chart, we would use that to increase the Portfolio’s position at a quicker pace.
Also on Wednesday, we increased our price targets for Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) shares to $185 and $65 from $170 and $60, respectively. As we move through 1H 2026, we’ll have a better sense of timing for some of the large IPOs from Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, Stripe and others. What we see may lead to another revision for MS and BAC shares, as well as those for SuRo Capital (SSSS) . On Friday, we explained why the recent pullback in SSSS shares is a nice pickup point for folks whose exposure to the shares is less than the Portfolio’s current position size.
In Friday’s video, we explained why we’re likely to see a dramatic slowdown in trading volume next week. We will be minding the store as well as continuing to keep a close watch on the shares of Bank of America and American Express (AXP) . Both have been very strong performers quarter-to-date (QTD) with returns that are multiples of the QTD gain for the S&P 500. Currently, those position sizes are each roughly 4.4% of the Portfolio’s assets, and should they cross the 4.5% level, odds are we’ll do some prudent and profitable register ringing. Such a move would not only lock in some very nice gains, but it would also easily push the Portfolio’s cash position back over 7.0%.
Now, let’s turn and see what others on Wall Street had to say about the Portfolio’s holdings during this shortened but electric week for the market:
Monday: UBS raised its Broadcom target to $475, while Costco (COST) and ServiceNow fetched rating downgrades from Roth Capital and KeyBanc, respectively. Jefferies lifted its Welltower price target to $231 from $210, noting senior housing operating portfolios are setting up for multiple years of outsized growth.
Tuesday: Wells Fargo upped its (TJX) price target to $150 from $145, and BMO did the same for Amazon, taking its target to $304. Mizuho trimmed its ServiceNow target to $1,050 but reiterated its Outperform rating. Mizuho also nudged its Alphabet (GOOGL) target to $343 from $340, and Oppenheimer did something similar with its Waste Management (WM) target, taking it up a buck to $263. Morgan Stanley increased its American Express target to $370 from $362. Cantor Fitzgerald docked its Marvell price target $10 to $100 while lifted its Qualcomm target to $185 from $170. Finally, on Tuesday, KeyBanc initiated coverage on Dutch Bros shares with a $77 target, and BTIG initiated coverage on ServiceNow shares with a Buy rating and $1,000 target.
Wednesday: Morgan Stanley boosted its Apple (AAPL) target to $315 from $305, while Wells Fargo took the one it has for American Express shares to $425 from $400. Keefe Bruyette bumped up its Bank of America target to $64 from $58 following management’s recent investor conference comments. The firm also took its Morgan Stanley target to $202 from $184. Baird upped its target for TJX shares to $168 from $165.
Thursday: Tigress Financial boosted its Nvidia target to $350 from $280.
Friday: Truist increased its Nvidia target to $275 from $255 and increased its Broadcom target to $510. Stifel adjusted its price target on ServiceNow to $230 from $1,150 to reflect the company's five-for-one stock split. Wedbush increased its Alphabet target to $350 from $320 but trimmed its Meta target to $880 from $920 even as it kept Meta as its top advertising pick for 2026.
This Week's Portfolio Videos
We cover a lot of ground during the week in our Daily Rundowns. If you happened to miss one or more of them, here are some helpful links:
Monday, December 15: Reviewing Our Chip Re-Alignment Game Plan
Tuesday, December 16: Versace on Yahoo! Finance’s Market Domination
Wednesday, December 17: Case for Cautious Optimism in 2026: A.I. Expansion & January Earnings Season
Thursday, December 18: Stocks & Markets Podcast: The Market Setup and Pro Picks for 2026
Friday, December 19: Year-End Game Planning as 'Triple Witching' Brings Extra Volatility
Key Global Economic Readings
(Note: T is the most recent period, T-1 is the prior period's reading, and T-2 is two periods back, the intent being to illustrate any trends.)
Chart of the Week: The Volatility Index (VIX)
As we move into the close of 2025, let’s look at volatility (VIX) and what we might expect to happen over the next couple of weeks. The VIX, or volatility index, currently sits near 15%, a historically low level but not the lowest we have seen. Now, remember, this is simply an indicator to tells us where the money is flowing about options, specifically the top S&P 500 calls and puts. When puts are in demand, the VIX rises, when calls are winning out, the VIX starts to decline.
As you might expect, the bulls like the down VIX situation the most. When the VIX is coming down or stays down, it means traders/investors are much more comfortable adding stocks, with the belief that market conditions won’t get out of hand. But the VIX rises when there is uncertainty, especially of the short-term type. But when that uncertainty is removed, this indicator is free to roll down.
How do we know if the VIX is in a bullish condition or not? Well, it’s a good question. Remember, it is not just about moving lower, rather, we look to see if the VIX can get under key moving averages. In this case, can the VIX close under the 20-day moving average, and can this 20-day moving average reside below the 200-day moving average? We have both averages on the chart here.
Notice the VIX is now below both the 20-day and 200-day moving averages and does not seem to be threatening to break those to the upside. Good conditions for the bulls and for a rally to ensue. However, the more time spent at these relatively low areas on the chart, the more complacent market players are, and a potential pop in volatility could really mess up the price chart. For the seasonally bullish trend, we may not see that until the new year starts. Maybe those spikes to 30 will get tested and scare the markets once again.
Other charts we shared with you this week were:
Monday, December 15: S&P 500 - S&P 500 Trying to Join the 'Cool Kids'
Monday, December 15: Arista Networks - Watch This Key Indicator as Arista Gets a Black Eye
Tuesday, December 16: Broadcom - We'll 'Wait and See' on This Recent Portfolio Candidate
Wednesday, December 17: ServiceNow - ServiceNow's Struggles Could Bring a Terrific Opportunity
Thursday, December 18: Kinross Gold (KGC) - 2025's 'Go To' Investment Shines on This 'Diplomat'
The Week Ahead
The next two weeks, because of how the year-end holidays fall, are likely to be the lowest trading volume days of the year. The stock market will close at 1 p.m. ET on December 24, and a full day of trading will be had on December 26, but we see many folks squeezing in an extra-long weekend. As such, institutional trading desks will largely be on autopilot as folks take time off for those holidays and to recharge before we begin 2026.
This year, we also have President Trump’s executive order that will see the federal government closed on December 24 and December 26. Some agencies and offices may need to remain open, and we’ll see how this might impact the modest amount of economic data on the docket next week.
While we will get a few more pieces of missed data next week, the one folks are likely to focus on is the second GDP reading for Q3 2025. Granted, most have shifted their focus to the current quarter and are refining expectations for next year, but we’ll want to take note of how Q3 2025 is revised. Following comments from public homebuilders this week, like Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) , we’re not expecting any great upside surprise with the November New Home Sales data
On the corporate earnings front, we have a rare treat next week with no impactful quarterly reports being published. As we mentioned above, things are likely to be even quieter than usual given Trump’s executive order, but that presents an opportunity for companies to squeak by negative earnings pre-announcement on the sly. We’ll be on watch for such reports next week, as well as the following week.
Here's a closer look at the economic data coming at us next week:
U.S.
Tuesday, December 23
ADP Employment Change Report – Weekly (8:15 a.m. ET)
GDP (Initial) – Q3 2025 (8:30 a.m. ET)
Durable Orders – October (8:30 a.m. ET)
Industrial Production & Capacity – October, November (9:15 a.m. ET)
Consumer Confidence – December (10:00 a.m. ET)
New Home Sales – November (10:00 a.m. ET)
Wednesday, December 24
MBA Mortgage Applications Index – Weekly (7:00 a.m. ET)
Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims – Weekly (8:30 a.m. ET)
EIA Crude Oil Inventories – Weekly (10:30 a.m. ET)
EIA Natural Gas Inventories – Weekly (10:30 a.m. ET)
International
Monday, December 22
UK: GDP (Final) – Q3 2025
Tuesday, December 24
Germany: Import Prices - November
Wednesday, December 23
Japan: Leading Economic Index (Final) - October
Portfolio Investor Resource Guide
Economic Data: Here's a List of Links to the Key Economic Data We Closely Watch
Investing Terminology: 16 Key Terms Club Members Should Know
10-Ks: Want to Know About a Stock? Read the Company's Reports
10-Qs: Unlock the Numbers and Key Information Behind Your Stock With the 10-Q
Income Statement -Our Cheat Sheet to Understanding This Financial Document
Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statements, and Dividends - How to Know If a Company Is Off-Kilter? Read Its Balance Sheet
Valuation Metrics - Everyone Wants a Value. Here's How Investors Can Find
Thematic Investing 101 Webinar
Like the Benefits of ETFs? Let’s Talk About Models
The Portfolio Ratings System
1 - Buy Now (BN): Stocks that look compelling to buy right now.
2 - Stockpile (SP): Positions we would add to on pullbacks or a successful test of technical support levels.
3 - Holding Pattern (HP): Stocks we are holding as we wait for a fresh catalyst to make our next move.
4 - Sell (S): Positions we intend to exit.
Stocks & Markets Podcast Links
Some helpful links if you prefer to catch the podcast on the go, in the car, or wherever. Be sure to give it a like or thumbs up and leave a review if you’re so inclined. We’d appreciate it.
More Pro Portfolio
- Stocks & Markets Podcast: Getting Ready for 2026 With Freedom Capital
- AI Cops & Robbers, Pizza's Out of Reach, and More Investing News
- Weekly Roundup: Friday’s Selloff Pulls the Rug Out From the Market
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long NVDA, BROS, PLTR, META, ANET, NOW, ETN, LH, WELL, MRVL, QCOM, AVGO, MS, BAC, SSSS, AXP, COST, TJX, GOOGL, WM, AAPL and KGC.
