Oil Tops $100 Per Barrel, Mortgage Rates Hit 14-Month High: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Wednesday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a lower start when trading kicks off later this morning.

1. Brent oil topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July, as attacks between the US and Iran and a recovery in Chinese oil buying propel the global crude benchmark higher… Refined products such as diesel, on the other hand, have rallied much harder as the Middle East conflict has broadened to the Red Sea near Saudi Arabia, alongside the Russia-Ukraine war. Together those price increases threaten to bring about a fresh round of inflationary costs for the world’s central bankers (Bloomberg)

Oil and corresponding inflation pressures are weighing on the market on Wednesday morning as the move reinforces rate hike prospects. With data from analytics firm Vortexa pointing to the amount of oil on ships at sea down by more than 150 million barrels since the middle of July, the question we’re pondering is how quickly oil and related prices will fade if and when a settlement between the U.S. and Iran is reached. We say this recognizing that the global refining sector’s diesel crunch is likely to result in tight supply for the coming months, keeping prices high in the process.

On the settlement front, the U.S. is escalating economic pressure on Iran with 36 Iran-related sanctions targeting the country’s aviation sector and other companies.

2. Futures markets are pricing in a 99.7% probability that the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy by 25 basis points to 2.5% when it meets Thursday. What’s less clear is whether its president, Christine Lagarde, will signal even more restrictive policy in the months to come or whether she will tack a more cautious, non-committal course. Much depends on the potential for resolution or escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. (MarketWatch)

Ahead of this week’s August CPI and PPI reports, and next week’s Fed decision, we’ll want to parse comments from Lagarde, focusing on levers that could lead the ECB to tighten further.

3. The rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose last week to its highest in more than 14 months, as escalating hostilities in the Middle East drove up oil prices, fueling ‌inflation concerns and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields that underpin residential borrowing costs. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 6 basis points to 6.85% in the week ended September 4, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. It was last higher in June 2025. (Reuters)

In all likelihood, renewed inflation pressures will sap consumer disposable income further, especially with wage gains running below recent inflation data. However, the continued escalation in mortgage rates is going to push out any expected rebound in the housing sector, especially for single-family unites. It also means homebuilders will likely need to utilize margin impacting incentives to win consumers in the market for a home.

4. The White House on Tuesday said it would ban certain dairy and alcohol imports and limit government procurement access to Canadian businesses, effective in about three weeks, as the trade spat escalated. The moves come as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of goods went into effect on Tuesday. Those duties were in response to the U.S. imposition of levies in July, using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 for the first time. (Barron’s)

The above is the latest in the back and forth between the White House and Canada, and with near $800 billion of goods and services exchanged between the U.S. and Canada last year, there will be an impact with the obvious one being inflation. With Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reaffirming that the Canadian government will fast-track major infrastructure projects and increase trade ties with other countries, we’ll want to assess implications for U.S. export.

We’ll also want to gauge what if any impact the current status between the U.S. and Canada has for other trade negotiations between the U.S. and other countries. Keep in mind, President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are set to meet in DC on September 24 to discuss bilateral relation and trade.

5. OpenAI is deepening cooperation with Samsung Electronics as the ChatGPT maker develops ‌its own chips, expanding ties with the South Korean technology giant across semiconductors and enterprise AI services… OpenAI said the number of ChatGPT Enterprise users at South Korean companies and institutions had surged about 28-fold as of the end of August from a year earlier, as businesses broadened their use of artificial intelligence from individual tasks to company-wide operations. Companies were increasingly using AI across functions including legal, sales, finance, marketing and operations, OpenAI said. (Reuters)

We’ve talked before about how tight chip industry capacity would foster new or extend existing relationships with chip foundries. As such, we’re not all that shocked by OpenAI’s expanded relationship with Samsung (SSNLF), as it builds out chip capacity. Given the relationship between Portfolio holding Applied Materials (AMAT) and Samsung, this evolution between OpenAI and Samsung may be a positive for Applied.

The second part of the above about ChatGPT users in South Korea, which is the second largest market behind the U.S., speaks to expanding AI adoption and widening usage that we closely monitor.

6. Apple hosts its annual September product event at 1 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, where it’s expected to unveil a foldable iPhone plus the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max…The foldable iPhone will mark the device’s biggest design change since it debuted in 2007. It could cost as much as as $2,000. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are also expected to make their debuts, but the base iPhone 18 could still be a few months away. That would leave only premium new models for the holiday season. CEO John Ternus will host the event, his first since succeeding Tim Cook last week. (Barron’s)

We shared our thoughts on Wednesday’s Apple (AAPL) event and what we’ll be watching, and what it would take to accelerate the all important iPhone upgrade cycle. If you missed that missive, you can catch it here. We’ll share our post event reaction later on Wednesday afternoon.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: MBA Mortgage Application Index (Weekly).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Chewy (CHWY), Core & Main (CNM), Jersey Mike’s (JMKE), SailPoint (SAIL), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB). PM – AeroVironment (AVAV), American Eagle (AEO), Cooper (COO), Wealthfront (WLTH).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL and AMAT.