Oil Falls, Jobs Miss and Yields Slip: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to positive start to the final trading day of the week.

1. Oil prices fell more than 2% and European gasoil futures dropped about ‌5% on Friday after reports of talks on additional diesel and crude stock releases, easing concerns over tight global energy supplies. (Reuters)

The price of diesel in Europe fell sharply on Friday morning as European countries considered releasing 50mn barrels of diesel in response to days of political pressure from the Trump administration. (FT)

The Pentagon is sending a third aircraft-carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, according to U.S. officials, adding 9,000 to 10,000 more troops to the region as President Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. (WSJ)

Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks, sources said, while continuing a diplomatic push that Iranian officials privately see as unlikely to succeed. (Reuters)

With oil prices falling on Friday morning, U.S. equity futures point to a positive start to the trading day. The degree to which diesel prices fall on a sustained basis from their recent record high of $6.5276 per gallon on September 22 will hinge on how much diesel and crude are released. Whether we see renewed military attacks between the U.S. and Iran will also be a factor in oil and diesel prices as well as other related prices, such as jet fuel.

As it stands on Friday, given the mix of scenarios, we would not be surprised to see company management teams err on the conservative side when discussing inflationary pressures and updating their forward guidance in the coming weeks. Recognizing that potential risk relative to expectations, we’ll continue to tread carefully with the Portfolio as the Q3 2026 earnings season gets underway.

2. September is expected to deliver another healthy month of job growth and stable unemployment, which should keep inflation squarely in focus for the Federal Reserve. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest September employment data on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists surveyed by FactSet and the Chicago Fed expect the national unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.1%. September’s payroll gains are forecast to be 90,000 for the month after a blowout reading of 162,000 in August. (Barron’s)

The September Employment report that showed 29,000 job were created during the month, came in well below the market expectation for 90,000 jobs and 133,000 created in August. Private payrolls fell to 46,000 in September compared to 89,000 in August, while government payroll contracted 17,000 versus the 44,000 contributed in August. While the participation rate edged up to 61.8%, the Unemployment Rate did the same landing at 4.2%, its highest reading during Q3 2026.

Despite the stronger readings for the domestic manufacturing economy captured in ISM’s September Manufacturing PMI data, the combination of the softer headline August PCE Price Index and the September jobs miss is likely to increase the likelihood for a Fed pause later this month. That should bring some additional relief for Treasury yields following their ongoing climb during September.

We’ll check the CME Fed Watch Tool once the market has time to digest Friday morning’s data. We still have several other pieces of key September data coming in the next few weeks, including ISM’s Service PMI, and the back to back CPI and PPI reports. Odds are that those three will show a similar step up in inflation pressures like what we saw in ISM’s September Manufacturing PMI. However, the weaker than expected pace of job creation during the month gives the Fed a likely reason to pause until its early December policy meeting. That also gives more time for any potential post-midterm election settlement between the U.S. and Iran.

3. Expectations were low for sportswear giant Nike ahead of its fiscal first-quarter earnings report, but guidance still managed to disappoint investors. It’s the latest evidence that the plodding pace of the company’s turnaround remains an obstacle for the stock… Nike expects to earn between $1.15 and $1.35 a share, compared with the $1.67 analysts were predicting. It expects revenue to decline in the high-single digit range, a steeper drop off than analysts had been predicting. (Barron’s)

During the Nike’s (NKE) earnings call, CFO David Denton shared the following:

We currently expect EBIT to decline by a greater percentage than revenue. This outlook reflects continued pressure on gross margin and fixed cost deleverage associated with lower revenue levels, higher input costs, but partially offset by disciplined expense management.

When profits are falling faster than revenue, it’s a clear indication of margin pressure. Some of that is due to lower fixed cost absorption, but to us the mention of higher input costs is one that surprisingly did not get more attention during the earnings call. As we pointed out on Thursday, Nike’s SEC filings clearly show that:

The cost of oil is a significant component in manufacturing and transportation costs, so increases in the price of petroleum products can adversely affect our profit margins.

As we move through the Q3 2026 earnings season we will be mindful about input costs, given the rise in energy and related prices and other items in short supply. S&P Global’s Final September Manufacturing PMI indicated that “whilst input prices rose at a steeper rate due to not only tariffs, but also high energy prices and the short supply of key items like steel and electronics.”

4. Anthropic PBC is seeking to go public as soon as the middle of November, according to people familiar with the matter, after the artificial intelligence model maker pushed back plans to list. The firm behind Claude could start formal marketing for its IPO as soon as the week of Nov. 9, putting it in line to begin trading before Thanksgiving, the people said. Dealmaking typically grinds to a halt in the days around the holiday, which is on Nov. 26. (Bloomberg)

Anthropic PBC is set to meet prospective investors on Oct. 14 in preparation for its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter, advancing its plan for a potential blockbuster listing even amid scrutiny over AI safety. (Bloomberg)

Market conditions have led several expected IPO offerings to be pulled, and that means the one from Anthropic is now going to be the focal point for IPO market activity. With the company expected to raise around $100 billion, the fees collected by the lead investment banks could tally several hundred million dollars. The actual size of those fees will depend upon how much the Anthropic offering winds up raising, and we’ll have more to say on that once we read the upcoming S-1 filing and collect comments from upcoming investor meetings.

For the IPO market, the pricing and post IPO trading activity for Anthropic shares will influence IPO activity as we finish out 2026 and begin 2027.

5. Mattel stock rose slightly in premarket trading Friday after jumping more than 25% late Thursday on a report that Authentic Brands was interested in a possible takeover of the toy maker. (Barron’s)

While the focus has been on the stalled IPO market, the above as well as the multisite of mid-sized strategic deals in September remind us that M&A activity continues to hum. That along with other advisory work, trading volumes and equity inflows have us stalking the shares of Portfolio holdings Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC). U.S.-listed ETFs took in roughly $520 billion in Q3 2026. That was down about 10% from roughly $580 billion in Q2, but up about two-thirds from Q3 2025.

The next known catalyst for the financials will be quarterly results from Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JPMorgan (JPM) reporting Q3 2026 results on October 13. Morgan Stanley reports its quarterly results a day later.

6. Boeing’s white-collar workers approved the company’s latest contract offer, pulling the aerospace giant away from a potential strike that could have interrupted its fragile recovery… The company’s now-recovering jet output is crucial to returning the commercial business to the black. (WSJ)

The U.S. Air Force has ordered four more MH-139A Grey Wolf helicopters, the first under full-rate production, Boeing said Thursday, just weeks after the service declared the aircraft ready for its nuclear missile security mission. The announcement comes during a busy week for Boeing. On Tuesday, the U.S. Navy selected the company to build its F/A-XX sixth-generation carrier-based fighter under a development contract worth more than $20 billion. The same day, the Air Force signed a $2.38 billion order for 22 more F-15EX Eagle II fighters. (Air Force Times)

The positive outcome of the above union vote removes the lingering concern of a potential strike that would have hobbled Boeing’s (BA) efforts to ramp up commercial aircraft delivery in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the back-to-back wins for its Defense, Space & Security (BDS) division add to the company’s multi-year backlog and the stable underlying business that it brings. Earlier this week, the Portfolio picked up additional BA shares at $187.78 and we have some room remaining to round out that position size.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Employment Report (September), Factory Orders (August).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – There are no market-moving corporate earnings reports expected on Friday.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long BA, BAC and MS.