Position: None

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

Wolf Street howls about the repo market. 

Biggest Borrowers & Lenders in the $13.5-Trillion Repo Market: How the Hedge Fund “Basis Trade” & Money Market Funds Fit In | Wolf Street

This is a very good read.

Position: None

I am covering some more RILY, DNUT and WGO.

Position: Short RILY (VS), WGO (VS), DNUT (VS)

Here are today’s things:

* I covered most of my Index shorts:

SPY $766.95

QQQ 736.75

* I covered my relatively large GRNY short at $28.02 and eliminated a small JOET short at $45.14 .

* With CVNA down by -$5 I sold my CVNA puts. I remain short common.

* I added to long in MSOS at $5.09 (common) and bought a crapload of calls for October and November. Added to GTBIF at $7.70.

* I added back to GLD at $380.30 today — replacing what I sold on Friday (when I substantially reduced my GLD on a rally at $394.94). I got very lucky for the second time on the precious metal, remember I sold my prior position of this trading sardine at over $400 about a week ago.

* I paid $26.01 for more WRTH long.

Position: Long MSOS common (VL) and calls (M), GLD (L); Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS), CVNA (VS)

Run don’t walk to watch Carter and Guy at 11 AM.

Again what you get with Dan and Guy are smart market observations, actionable ideas (Carter has an ETF WRTH, which discusses a lot of creative pairs trades, hedges and more aggressive trades). Seabreeze Partners, my hedge fund has taken a long position in WRTH as I believe it will outperform in a down market ).

Unlike many in the business media, MRKT Call’s playas take ownership of their ideas — so you also get some humble pie (i.e., honesty and transparency).

Let’s go to the tape! Carter Worth: Go Long MSFT & PLTR, Time To Sell Gold – YouTube

Guy gave me a nice shout out at the 13-minute market (related to my NVDA comments in my Diary).   

Position: None

One of my core investment shorts, Carvana (CVNA), continues to struggle today (-$5).

I have sold my puts but I am keeping my common short.

Position: Short CVNA (S)

– NYSE volume 3% below its one-month average; 

– Nasdaq volume 19% below its one-month average; 

– VIX index: up 10.69% to 16.46

Breadth

SOURCE: Barchart

S&P500 Indices

SOURCE: Barchart

% GAINERS, DECLINERS

SOURCE:TheStreet Pro

Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 Heat Maps

SOURCE TheFly

I covered the balance of the GRNY short at $27.88.

I’m also out of JOET.

Position: None

The following is from Peter Boockvar:

A few important things of note

To those who keep telling me that interest rates are just back to the long term normal, I agree but as it comes after 15 years of abnormal, therein lies the problem for those whose debt is coming due this year and next that was priced prior to 2022. The refi options are where the rate shock is. Just imagine the real estate operator who priced a 3% loan five years ago and is repricing at 8% this year, an ongoing adjustment seen over the past few years for those whose debt came due. We’ve of course seen the damage done to household mobility as many stick to their 3-4% mortgage rate and choose not to move. Or that SPAC and/or LBO in 2021 whose time has come to refi. Also, it is the rate of change and trajectory of the rate move that is the focus right now too, not the absolute level.

I guess not surprisingly at this point, still no progress on a deal with Iran. All ideas welcome on getting one. The move higher in oil prices has sent global bond yields up again. We remain bullish and long energy stocks, in E&P/refining, pipelines, drilling and services.

To the question on when the rise in rates and energy prices will matter for stocks, as seen again with the deteriorating market breadth, it’s already begun to have an impact. The only stick save at this point has been the AI trade.

Here’s an update on breadth, looking at both the cumulative advance/decline line and the % of NYSE stocks trading above its 200 day moving average (lowest since June 2025).

Cumulative A/D Line in white, SPX in orange

% of Stocks above its 200 day MA

A portion of the credit markets care now too, to highlight again the CCC high yield category that is now trading more than 1000 bps above Treasuries for the first time in 3 years with a yield to worst now at 15.1%.

CCC Spread

Resorting back to verbal FX intervention, Atsushi Mimura, Vice Minister for International Affairs in Japan is saying that with regards to the desire and recent actions to stem the decline in the yen, “Japan’s prime minister, finance minister and the US have sent a very clear message. Markets should take the message at face value.” This follows a phone call on Friday between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama both agreeing that the yen is undervalued relative to the US dollar. After Friday’s 1% decline, the yen is up .2% today.

Yen

Positions: None.

With private equity stocks getting smashed this morning, I am covering more of my private equity shorts.

Positions: Short BX VS KKR VS APOL VS

All morning the business media is making a lot about the $150 billion share buyback by Nvidia (NVDA).

There is less than meets the eye as NVDA’s market cap totals $5 trillion.

When Apple (AAPL) announced their $100 million share buyback, Apple’s market cap was under $1 trillion.

Positions: Short AAPL VS

Charts from 9:33 a.m. ET.

With the recent drop in MSOS from $5.42 to $5.10 I am starting to aggressively purchase and bid for October and November $5 calls.

Positions: MSOS common VL calls M 

Adding to MSOS $5.10 and GTBIF $7.70 now.

Positions Long MSOS common VL calls S GTBIF S

I have covered much of my GRNY at $28.03.

I plan to reshort on strength.

Positions: Short GRNY VS

Upside

– KOD +60% (pivotal Phase 3 DAYBREAK wet-AMD trial met its primary noninferiority endpoints, with most patients reaching a 24-week dosing interval)

– ARAY +39% (agrees to explore integrating Samsung NeuroLogica volumetric imaging technology with the CyberKnife platform)

– MEDS +28% (launches a GLP-1 care app offering telehealth consultations and access to branded medications)

– WBUY +27% (first-half revenue nearly doubled, gross profit rose 132% and the net loss narrowed)

– MTEK +21% (receives a record $10 million order for advanced video systems on next-generation airborne defense platforms)

– AMPX +12% (wins a Defense Department grant of up to $75 million for domestic high-energy-density battery production, with about $22 million obligated initially)

– SRFM +7.1% (selected as a participating airspace user in the FAA SMART program)

– NTES +4.6% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; unusually large, liquid premarket move)

– SM +2.6%, FRO +2.9%, APA +2.5%, OXY +1.7%, XOM +1.5%, CVX +1.5% (energy names rise as crude advances after the US rejected Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz)

– CF +2.4% (Rothschild Redburn upgrades to Neutral from Sell, citing a tighter nitrogen-market outlook)

Downside

– GFI -13% (confirms a rejected A$27-per-share cash-and-stock proposal for Northern Star that would leave target holders owning about 33% of the combined company)

– MNOV -12% (Phase 2 trial failed to show a statistically significant triglyceride benefit versus placebo at Week 24)

– AU -5.6%, AG -4.5%, CDE -5.1%, HL -4.9%, EGO -4.6%, NEM -4.0% (precious-metals miners fall as gold and silver tumble on a stronger dollar, rising yields and increased Fed rate-hike expectations)

– FCX -3.3%, SCCO -3.4%, HBM -3.8% (base-metal miners fall as the stronger dollar and rising yields pressure commodity prices)

– META -2.7% (pulls back after last week’s sharp AI-led rally as rising Treasury yields pressure megacap growth stocks)

– BE -2.6%, GLW -2.0%, MOD -3.0% (data-center infrastructure names retreat in the higher-yield risk-off tape)

– CRCL -2.0% (crypto-linked shares weaken as Bitcoin falls about 2%)

– TTMI -1.8%, CRDO -2.5%, SKHY -3.3%, INTC -2.4%, ARM -2.1%, SNDK -2.7% (high-beta chip and memory names retreat as oil-driven inflation fears lift Treasury yields and pressure the Nasdaq tape)

We have been ahead of this, as I have for a month or so expected disappointing results and guidance for PEP.

I have recently begun to buy back the shares….

PepsiCo price target lowered to $133 from $145 at TD Cowen: TD Cowen lowered the firm’s price target on PepsiCo to $133 from $145 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm is citing a Bloomberg article quoting a management spokesperson which indicates that the company will raise prices on chips, soda, and dips in 2027 to offset cost inflation, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The management’s shifting narrative on affordability and continued market share losses in the U.S. increases the risk profile for Pepsi in 2027, TD Cowen added.

PepsiCo downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank: Deutsche Bank downgraded PepsiCo to Hold from Buy with a price target of $138, down from $155. The firm cites less certainty in PepsiCo’s strategic direction in North America for the downgrade. Deutsche has less conviction in the company’s ability to deliver a “durable recovery” in PepsiCo Foods North America. Many of PepsiCo’s initiatives “have produced mixed or fleeting benefits,” with PFNA still struggling to generate sustained improvement in consumption, organic growth, share, or operating leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Deutsche cut its estimates for PepsiCo to reflect “lackluster” North American consumption and escalating cost pressures.

Long: PEP  S

Fed Speakers: 

8:15 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (Voter) participates virtually in “Recent Developments in Bank Supervision and Regulation” discussion before the Military Banking Summit (No text. Q&A from moderator. Livestream available); 

1:25 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Cook (Voter) speaks on “AI and Emerging Tech” before the Oakland Tech Week 2026, Oakland, CA (Text available. No Q&A); 

1:30 p.m.: Fed Bank of Richmond President Barkin (Non-Voter) participates in fireside chat before the Working-Class Insights Forum, Middleburg, VA (NOTE: Barkin’s session is the only portion of the program that is open to media coverage)

Economic Calendar:

SOURCE: TipRanks

Source: TheStreet Pro

Pennsylvania Can Legalize Marijuana Next Year If Democrats Flip Three Legislative Seats, House Speaker Says – Marijuana Moment

Position: None 

* This sort of relatively frenetic trading is not for everyone, but it’s for me … for now and until a more serious drop occurs

With S&P futures -45 handles and Nasdaq futures -330 handles I am taking in most of my index shorts for a quick, overnight profit:

* SPY $766.95

* QQQ $736.75

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains oversold at -4.55% vs. -4.39% 

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

From last night:

Dougie Kass

8PM Sunday Night

Back shorting the Indices:

•  SPY $769.83
• QQQ $744.46

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)