Treasury Actions

11:00 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4, 8 and 17 Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $95B 6-Week Bill Auction; 

4:00 p.m.: Total Net TIC Flows; Net Long-Term TIC Flows (May)

Fed Speakers

10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee hearing, “The Federal Reserve’ Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report,” Washington, DC; 

12:40 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Barr (Voter) speaks on artificial intelligence before the Federal Reserve Board Annu al Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, DC (Text available. No Q&A) Livestream at www.federalreserve.gov and www.youtube.com/federalreserve;

12:55 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Barr (Voter) participates in fireside chat on “Artificial Intelligence and Financial Inclusion” before the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, DC (No text. Q&A from moderator and audience) Livestream at www.federalreserve.gov and www.youtube.com/federalreserve;

1:00 p.m.: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) participates in moderated question-and-answer session before hybrid Kenosha Area Business Alliance Business Lunch event, Kenosha, WI (Livestream available. Embargoed text TBD); 

1:30 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Cook (Voter) moderates “Consumers, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Inclusion: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges” discussion before the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, DC (No text); 

2:55 p.m.: (VIA PRE-RECORDED VIDEO) Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman (Voter) speaks on “Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion” before the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, DC (Text available. No Q&A);

Positions: None.

I just took more than a ten dollar gain on my JPMorgan (JPM) short.

Covered first tranche at $337.46 and the balance at $335.95.

Position: None

The superficial instant “analysis” of JPMorgan’s (JPM) EPS report resulted in a +$5 gap higher in the share price.

I aggressively shorted JPMorgan in the premarket (after the EPS beat, more on the ratonale shortly!) at $338.50.

Position: Short JPM (S)

Bank earnings will be out today.

In all likelihood, there will be no discussion of a $316 billion hole (in unrealized portfolio losses) in the banking industry’s securities investment accounts:

In our investment world dominated by gamblers and a herd of perma bulls, this sort of issue is “non recurring” —  a “one off” if you will — and doesn’t merit discussion even though it is a hole in balance sheets.

Position: None

* B.S.(ing) In the Comments Section…

I certainly have no concession on the truth — as I write, I am often wrong and always in doubt.

But I (and Sarge) can spot the B.S. miles away and we welcome the opportunity to call it out:

Sarge

Everyone with an IQ above 85 knows that Lee is just a salesman and that Siegel is half of a goofball. Oops, did I say that? 

Dougie Kass

You did sarge and i agree

It’s not that i am a perma bear – i am perma anti bs.

As you are.

Siegel: perma bull, develops narratives that fit his bullish forecasts – non dynamic and, surprisingly, for a wharton professor, not rigorous in analysis.

Lee: how moderators don’t push back from his $14 billion loss in ethereum at bmnr is beyond me…

But then again, Cathie Wood lost $15 billion (the largest loss in etf history) and she is constantly on cnbc. 

Position: None

Doomberg on Bloom Energy (BE) (a short)…”Artificial Bloom.”

Artificial Bloom

Position: Short BE (S)

All last week the perma-bull cabal (including head cheerleader Fundstrat’s Tom Lee (every day) and Wharton’s (where I received my MBA) Dr. Jeremy Siegel on Friday — both of whom called for an imminent rise in equity prices) remarked that the pleasant decline in energy prices would serve to 1. reduce inflationary pressures and 2. be a salutary factor contributing to the next run in the S&P index over the next few weeks.

Naturally Fin TV moderators had no pushback — didn’t even discuss the failure to end the Iran War (to date) or the improvisational foreign policy that seemingly would not bring a resolution and peace.  Nor was the steady rise in global rates even brought up. 

Well, as night follows day the price of energy products have reversed dramatically in the last 48 hours and equities folded like a cheap suit.

The price of crude oil rose by nearly 10% yesterday as the war escalated and is up by another +$3.45/barrel (+4%) this morning.

Listen to the same bullish crowd respond to this and develop a rationale and another reason for continued stock market strength in the next few days.

Again, I call B.S. as inflation, interest rates and crude oil prices — as a base case — will likely be higher for longer.

The narrative from the bulls will change but the facts don’t seem to interfere in their upbeat views.

And, oh, Apple’s (AAPL) shares (last week’s fave because of price momentum) were downgraded by a brokerage (we shorted late last week).

Position: Short AAPL

The S&P Short Range Oscillator dropped back towards neutral at 1.44% vs. 2.56%.

Position: None