Doug KassDoug Kass– NYSE volume 14% above its one-month average;
– Nasdaq volume 1% below its one-month average;
– VIX index: up 15.99% to 19.95
SOURCE: Interactive Brokers
SOURCE: Barchart
SOURCE: TheStreet Pro
SOURCE TheFly
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 11:30 AM EDT
Housekeeping item.
Based on my continued research I have covered my very small new short in FIGS at $21.15 for a small loss.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 11:24 AM EDT
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 10:53 AM EDT
Dougie Kass
28m ago
My trading long rentals are a function of the short term oversold in individual stocks coupled with the reverswal in consumer staples from the highs of the day…
Positions: None.
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 10:49 AM EDT
The following is from Peter Boockvar
I’m going to make the case for a 3rd time this week that if tech stocks continue to falter here, the Fed will not be hiking rates in December due to the huge, as we know, reliance the US economy and US stock market has on it. Rate hike odds have slipped modestly to 74% from 84% both right before and after Fed Chair Warsh spoke on Wednesday. And if I’m right, I expect the US dollar to weaken as the whole world is long US tech stocks, the lack of another hike would give less reason to own the US dollar, and I’d think REAL interest rates would drop too and thus gold should end its corrective move here, going on since hitting its peak in January.
I’ll jump right to the earnings calls and start with those that are causing this morning selloff.
From Amazon:
AWS saw sales up 39% y/o/y, just above the estimate of up 38%. Retail online sales grew just 2%, the slowest pace since early 2023 in large part because of a shift in timing with Prime Day as it was in Q3 ‘25 and Q2 ‘26 and normalizing for this would have added an additional 400 bps of growth. Advertising sales were up just 12%, the weakest pace of growth since they started telling us about its financial details.
CapEx in the quarter was $75.9 billion and “primarily relates to AWS and AI as we invest to support strong customer demand.” Free cash flow was about minus $42 billion in the quarter.
“We still expect 2026 cash CapEx of approximately $220 billion, the majority for AWS, and expect to spend meaningfully more in 2027, with a clear line of sight to attract its financial returns…AWS is a $184 billion annualized revenue run rate business, and yet the opportunity remains extraordinary.”
From Intel:
Strength in the data center business “was partially offset by weakness in CCPG (Client computing and physical AI group) driven by industry wide impacts from higher memory prices and limited IT budgets. The industry continues to navigate one of the most significant supply shortages in history driven by the unprecedented demand for super intelligence.”
And even in their data center business, “I also want to acknowledge headwinds limiting our progress to meet this extremely high AI driven demand.”
Back to their client business, “In recent weeks, our customers began signaling a PC slowdown based on the memory prices and availability. Year-to-date system endpoint prices have increased significantly, placing additional pressure on already limited IT budgets. The pace of this PC correction has accelerated over the last two months and our OEM partners are aggressively managing inventory to match the softer sell through.”
“We expect the current environment to persist until memory availability and prices begin to normalize.”
From Caterpillar, down 9% yesterday and lower by 40% from its June peak as of this morning:
“Power generation grew 75%, driven by continued very strong demand for turbines and large reciprocating engines used in data center applications.”
“Sales to users in oil and gas increased 5% and were driven by turbines and turbine related services. Industrial sales to users were down due to softness in the EAME (Europe, Africa, Middle East) region.”
Sales into the construction end market grew by 20% and 27% to North America. “Non-residential construction investment continues to be supported by the IIJA, critical infrastructure programs, and data centers.”
From Ebay, up 2.7% yesterday:
Gross merchandise volume grew 13% with particular growth in “collectibles, Ebay Motors, fashion, and refurbished goods” And they spent more time talking about how they are really benefiting from the collectibles business which is “our largest growth contributor.”
This was interesting and its either a desire for vintage items and/or a reflection of consumers trying to save money, in their Re-commerce report out this month, it “points to a secular shift in re-commerce, as 47% of consumers surveyed now buy secondhand at least monthly, up from 35% last year, and 89% expect to spend the same or more on secondhand goods in 2027.”
“It also highlights seller economic. Roughly 85% of sellers source secondhand inventory from their own belongings, and nearly 30% say selling secondhand helps them earn extra income.”
“Younger consumers are accelerating this shift. 53% of 18 to 29 year olds expect to buy more secondhand in 2027.”
From Starbucks, little changed premarket:
Global comps were up 7.2%, “marking our 5th consecutive quarter of comp growth, and US comps were up 7.7%.”
“Our plan is working. More customers are visiting us because the Starbucks experience is better. Our coffeehouses are coffeehouses again…Strength is coming through the fundamentals.”
From Monro, the auto repair/tire change company that we own and that was down 14% yesterday:
Comps fell 1.8%, “reflecting an operating environment which continued to challenge the full service auto aftermarket. This was driven by lower store traffic, consumers that continued to defer higher ticket spending decisions and traded down to lower cost alternatives in tires.”
From Hershey, down 2% yesterday and lower for a 5th day:
“the operating environment has become more challenging as consumers manage the cumulative pressure of higher gas prices, inflation, and interest rates. As September progressed, we saw consumers become more deliberate about spending, particularly in channels most exposed to higher gas prices like convenience stores where the U.S. candy, gum, and mint category declined nearly 5% in the month. That caution persisted into October, with growth moderating across snacking segments, though our categories are holding up comparatively well.”
From Brunswick, the boat and parts maker and up 8% yesterday:
“Headwinds from geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and higher borrowing costs are weighing on consumer confidence and discretionary spending, particularly for the value consumer, but our premium and core focused portfolio continues to be resilient and perform ahead of overall year-to-date SSI (statistical surveys) data.” The upper income earner likes to buy boats.
And, “while fuel prices are elevated, they do not appear to be abating enthusiasm for boating.”
“Boating participation remains healthy, supporting demand for parts, aftermarket products and subscription boating, which together with distribution market share gains helped drive our strongest 3rd quarter engine P&A (parts & accessories) since 2020.”
From Hyatt Hotels, up 6% yesterday:
“Performance was driven by durable demand from high end travelers and continued strength across our luxury portfolio with some benefit from the FIFA World Cup in July and the timing of the Jewish holidays in September.”
“RevPAR growth in the US also exceeded our expectations, while most international markets delivered strong growth.”
“RevPAR increased across all customer segments, business, group and especially leisure travel.”
From DR Horton and whose stock rose 2.5% yesterday but after falling by 2.7% on Wednesday:
Gross margins fell 120 bps sequentially as “Market conditions became more challenging as the quarter progressed, which limited our ability to offset higher costs with pricing, resulting in 80 bps of the decline. Above normal litigation costs accounted for the remainder of the decrease.”
“We expect continued pressure on our home sales gross margin in the first quarter, reflecting a lower average sales price and higher incentive levels to remain elevated in fiscal 2027.”
“Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, we expect affordability constraints, higher mortgage rates and cautious consumer sentiment to continue to pressure new home demand.”
From Mastercard, up 4% yesterday:
“While there continues to be economic and geopolitical uncertainty, consumers continue to spend, businesses continue to invest and commerce continues to expand. The economy, our overall business and our network have a resilient backdrop.”
On the agentic situation, “Consumers are already beginning to use agents to discover and purchase products. We expect that trend to build as holiday shopping ramps up and to continue well beyond the season. It is still early days and the numbers are not yet significant in the grand scheme, but as the AI agentic assistance have emerged, agentic transactions are ramping up at impressive weekly growth rates. We’re now seeing the early stages of consumer adoption.”
Benefiting from infrastructure spend, Vulcan Materials said this with its stock rallying by 6% yesterday:
“The demand environment remains mixed across end uses with growth opportunities in some categories and challenges in others…On the public side, activity remains healthy at healthy levels. There is still a long tail from IIJA with approximately 35% of funds yet to be spent. There is a current extension of the Federal Highway Authorization Bill that maintains funding at current levels and is expected to be extened again until a bill is passed.”
“On the private side, large project opportunities continue to drive non-residential activity…We are currently shipping on a variety of solar, wind, LNG, power plant and refinery projects in addition to large scale manufacturing projects like SpaceX and Toyota in South Texas and Scout Motors in South Carolina.”
“The continued lack of housing affordability and a challening rate environment are limiting residential construction activity.”
“On a mix adjusted basis, average selling prices in the quarter improved 5% compared to the prior year with improvement widespread across geographies.”
From Blue Owl Capital:
“Portfolio health remains robust with no meaningful changes to our direct lending watchlist, portfolio growth trends, or our realized loss rate, which sits at a low 12 bps per annum for the total direct lending portfolio and at a net gain for our technology lending book.”
They remain bullish on data centers, “Unfortunately, people have somehow turned the word data center generically into a question mark, as opposed to the tremendous opportunity done right that it presents.”
The data point of note overseas was in Japan where Tokyo CPI for October rose 2.6% y/o/y, one tenth less than anticipated and vs 3% in the month before. The headline rate was higher by 2.8%, one tenth above the forecast and vs 2.7% in the month before.
As the BoJ is not raising rates likely until December, there was nothing market moving and JGB yields fell in response to the tech stock worries.
In Europe, France’s economy unexpectedly contracted by .1% y/o/y instead of rising .3% as expected. CPI in France was higher by 3.8% in October, above the estimate of 3.6% and both help to explain the anger there.
Consumer price inflation in Spain in October was higher by 4.9% y/o/y but as expected.
In Germany, their October jobs data was as expected and with an unemployment rate of 6.4%.
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 10:36 AM EDT
I have taken a trading long rental in MSFT at $522.05
Positions: Long MSFT VS
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 10:19 AM EDT
I am taking trading long rentals in several financials:
* BAC $50.19
* C $121.98
* WFC $83.58
Positions: Long BAC VS C VS WFC VS
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 10:04 AM EDT
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 10:02 AM EDT
I have taken several trading long rentals (off an oversold):
* AMZN $225.66
* META $614
* GOOGL $280.62
* BABA $98.15
Positions: Long AMZN VS META VS GOOGL VS BABA VS
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 9:46 AM EDT
* As I recall it ended much too soon…
Oh, what a night
Late December back in ’63
What a very special time for me
As I remember what a night
Oh, what a night
You know I didn’t even know her name
But I was never gonna be the same
What a lady, what a night
Oh, I got a funny feeling
When she walked in the room
And I, as I recall
It ended much too soon
Oh, what a night
Hypnotizing, mesmerizing me
She was everything I dreamed she’d be
Sweet surrender, what a night
– Frankie Valli & The Four Seasons, Oh What A Night
Well the hits keep on coming.
Amazon (AMZN) free cash flow just came in at negative $42.4 billion versus expectations of negative $7.7 billion. During the quarter they already had to issue $48 billion of debt. How much more capital will they now need to raise? Further, they spent $76 billion in capex, but now guidance for next quarter implies that number going down to $48 billion, which is a 37% sequential decline.
How is this good for suppliers? Maybe ask Intel (INTC)? Their stock price is only down 22% after hours because of their guidance as they try to keep up with ServiceNow (NOW). Remember, Amazon is one of the companies that told us they had racks of unused equipment (and chips) sitting in warehouses, and that is when things were presumably good. And there was another story that GPUs are sitting unutilized half of the time. Then of course 80% of end demand appears to be coming from VC startups that do not need to exist.
I also wonder what Intel is seeing that Microsoft (MSFT) is not seeing, or maybe Microsoft is per the aforementioned shrinking bookings and flat backlog?
When the cash does not come from the business, it comes from someplace else. Long-term debt nearly tripled in nine months, from $65.6 billion at the end of 2025 to $173.1 billion at the end of September, due to $115.1 billion of new long-term borrowing year-to-date ($48.1 billion in Q3). Cash fell from $86.8 billion to $55.8 billion. Interest expense more than tripled to $1.7 billion in Q3, from $0.5 billion a year ago. “Other long-term liabilities” nearly tripled too, to $99.9 billion from $36.0 billion. And who knows what else may be lurking off balance sheet. When is the next offering, and will it be equity or debt?
With all of this, everything missed, including Amazon Web Services by a few percent, and guidance was also light.
I go back to this issue (previously discussed in the last issue of “More Tales”) and the following chart which shows the amount of depreciation on the come for the big hyperscalers. Meta, Amazon and Google (GOOGL) are already cash flow negative. Their cash flow now tells you where earnings are headed in the future as the massive depreciation bolus makes its way into the P&L.
Per the chart, as usual the sell-side models at the individual company level are all B.S. They do not flow enough depreciation into the P&L going forward. They make up too much revenue on the come in the future. Then they assume much too high of a margin on that revenue, especially given all the capacity coming on line, that will have to be sold. It is all made-up crap. They can’t even get it right for the current quarter, you think these models are anywhere close 2-3 years out?
The whole earnings growth story that has been driving these companies, and equities overall (which is really just these companies), forget about it. With this much depreciation on the come, it is quite challenging for earnings to grow. Stagnant earnings, frankly, would be a great outcome relative to what might actually happen.
The whole AI trade is busted, but everyone is still all in (including a lot of highly levered Leotard’s and highly levered retail). The spenders will have to slow their spending. Demand is clearly slowing, and their balance sheets are broken. That is no good for the suppliers.
The spenders are screwed too, because they have all spent too much money, there is too much capacity being put in place, and it is all a big no differentiated product. Then they have scads of depreciation on the come. The spenders will not be able to cut their way out of the mess.
Then the whole circular ecosystem is entangled with itself with promises they all cannot afford to keep, nor will be possible to keep. The big winners are going to be the lawyers as this spaghetti of a circular mess is litigated to oblivion. Not even the central bank of Nvidia (NVDA) can bail this thing out, although I am sure they will try until they too end up impaling themselves. In fact, their cash flow and balance sheet is already telling a very different story than their earnings as well. I suspect the lawyers are already sending them lots of business cards based on what they see coming as Nvidia is at the center of the whole mess.
Oh, and per the prior on Bill Gurley and the Anthropic IPO, he said these things back in 2008. Boy did he have no idea how much worse it was going to get both in terms of the behavior of the venture markets and the public markets, which are both intertwined:
With the economic collapse in the fall of 2008, Gurley garnered attention when he sent a letter to his portfolio companies, advising CEOs to exercise caution in spending but to look for and take advantage of opportunities that become available during harsh economic times. In a 2015 interview Gurley said of private tech investing, “it’s my belief that Silicon Valley and the venture-backed businesses have moved into a world that is both speculative and unsustainable.” Gurley’s warnings, and posts on his personal blog, Above the Crowd, on venture capital spending, have been widely discussed in the industry.
Interesting comment from what is now a former prominent venture capitalist about the IPO process. This is what investing has become, at least for the private investors. It is a game of markups. Not so different than kiting stock back and forth.
At the end of the food chain are the bankers, who want to keep the game going. The IPO price is not a function of the value of the underlying business. It is reverse engineered to “reward” investors in the prior round who are part of the game and continual big fee payers and generators, at the expense of the public including widows and orphans. The conversations are all had along the way about what the next round can be marked up to, and at what valuation the IPO price will ultimately be at.
The bankers also have the additional incentive of trying to keep the whole circular AI game going, because all of their lines of business benefit from it. They do not want the party to end. Like Chuck Prince said at the peak of the housing bubble, when the music is playing you keep dancing. How did that end for Chuck and everyone else? At any rate, it is no coincidence that the world’s largest bank has signed up to lead the Anthropic IPO:
With regard to reverse engineering price, Anthropic’s fundamentals have obviously deteriorated, yet there has been no change in the theoretical IPO valuation. Just more obfuscation. The disappointing Q3 numbers and obvious decay in trajectory in Q3 has been left blank in the S-1.
The governance and insider unlocks are a joke (per the point about rewarding investors). They are basically telling you margins will get worse, not better, per page 134, which states “we expect our use of short-term compute to increase in the near term an in turn to compress our operating margin.” This is the exact opposite of what is meant to happen when a business scales. The whole thing is beyond the pale from my perspective.
This is the wholesale dumping of a faltering business with ridiculous governance on to the public at an unheard of valuation with ridiculous terms. Whether or not legal doublespeak and disclaimers allow for this to happen does not mean it should happen or that anyone should stand behind this and actually facilitate it happening. It frankly is gross. Here is a good summary of what is in the S-1:
“I believe that Anthropic is intentionally misleading investors at a scale unseen in the history of IPOs. Whatever excitement anyone might have about cashflows or the stretched definition of “profitability” is irrelevant, as Anthropic is, by its own admission and its unbelievable obligations, a completely different company to the one it was in the second quarter of this year.”
Here is an interesting nit that flew under the radar. On their conference call, the Microsoft CFO referred to GPUs as “short lived assets.” She said 75% of their capex is now directed to these “short lived assets.” So much for those lengthy depreciation curves. It should really be accelerated depreciation, under a much shorter timeline. The reason compute price went up over the short term is access to power, not the underlying value of the silicon or servers, which continue to depreciate apace. ~80% of demand for compute is coming from VC startups that do not need to exist. My guess is compute prices will soon head the way of token prices. At any rate, anyone lending against chips as collateral deserves to lose their money.
Speaking of Microsoft, they just turned around and announced a $25 billion debt offering, because they too need cash. This is after Meta who is selling $90 billion of equity, and SpaceX (SPCX), which just did $40 billion more of debt. I do not even understand the capital structure choices. MSFT is trading at a 30x P/E, and SpaceX lord knows what multiple. I would be selling equity hand over fist. Not sure if they prioritize their short-term stock price, or just keeping the float thin so the stock is more easily pushed around.
Google’s business is obviously under pressure. Microsoft’s business is less obviously under pressure. The revenue and EPS print was good, which is what the stock reacted to AH. But their bookings shrunk and their backlog did not grow. That is the leading indicator, and why the actual trading is quite different from the AH reaction. Frankly I am surprised the stock is not down more.
Due to the pressure on their business, both Microsoft and Google came in under their expected capex. This tells you what they now think about their forward prospects. If capex upside was good for the AI trade, Capex downside should be bad. Further, it seems things are slowing for both sides of the equation. Ergo the spenders are struggling on the revenue side, not good for them. And they are cutting on the capex side, so not good for the receivers. Ergo double whammy.
Microsoft spent $38 billion versus $46 billion estimates, and Google spent $51 billion versus $56 billion estimated. Forward commentary about capex staying intact should be largely ignored, that is just akin to not being willing to fess up that business is slowing, which it obviously seems to be doing. At any rate, Google is in the negative free cash flow bucket along with Amazon and Meta now. All the depreciation is on the come.
Cash flow tells the story now about what earnings are going to do in the future. Google is still FCF negative despite spending $5 billion less capex than was expected. FCF came in at -$9 billion versus -$3.5 billion expected. When will Google be joining the capital raising party?
Meanwhile, as everything goes down, Apple (AAPL) goes up again, to another ATH for both the stock price and P/E, while nothing good is going on there. If being viewed as NOT AI is good, then shouldn’t AI be viewed as not good? Once again the rotation game, there is no real selling yet. But it is so odd. People could go to cash, or into something not tech. But there is just the reflexive behavior out of one tech name, into another, for no real reason.
Good luck for the agents, like Muse. I continue to believe they will be cut off at the knees by nearly every business they try to involve themselves with. I also think the novelty will quickly wear off for those that downloaded Muse. I think the download rate will also slow, and it may have slowed already.
This blast email out from B of A today to their account holders:
Protecting your finances in the AI World
At Bank of America, we’re continuing to invest in innovative technologies, including AI, to make your financial life easier, more personal and more secure. As other broad-ranging tools are introduced to help manage finances, we encourage you to keep security top of mind.
Please remember that your username and password should never be shared with another person or provided to an outside service, including an AI-enabled tool or agent that offers to act on your behalf.
If you do share your credentials, keep in mind that you’re responsible for activity resulting from that access.
We’re excited about what AI used responsibly can deliver. As your financial partner, we’ll continue to bring you innovative services while helping you stay secure and protect what matters most.
Thank you for being our client.
And thank you for your attention to this matter.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 9:30 AM EDT
– REGN +6.9% (Q3 profit and revenue materially topped expectations)
– BTSG +6.4% (Q3 beat and full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance raised)
– MDLZ +6.4% (profit beat, volume-led growth and upbeat margin and 2027 commentary)
– RIVN +6.4% (Q3 beat and 2026 delivery outlook raised)
– AZN +5.9% (Q3 revenue and profit beat on strong oncology growth; FY guidance reaffirmed)
– MICC +5.4% (Q3 update showed double-digit growth at core brands and more than 30% Yasso growth)
– GILD +5.1% (Q3 beat and product-sales outlook raised on strong HIV growth)
– CL +5.0% (Q3 beat, volume and gross margin improved and FY profit guidance was raised)
– TAK +4.4% (first-half profit beat and FY outlook upgraded, primarily reflecting FX benefits)
– FDXF +3.9% (inaugural standalone results beat and adjusted margin outlook was raised)
– ICE +3.7% (extends post-earnings gains after record Q3 results and a higher recurring-revenue outlook)
– SNY +3.6% (Q3 delivered double-digit sales and profit growth and FY guidance was raised)
– GD +3.4% (Q3 beat with broad segment growth and robust bookings)
– DXCM +3.0% (Q3 beat with margin expansion and higher FY revenue and profitability guidance)
– EXC +2.5% (Q3 beat and FY guidance narrowed while long-term EPS growth was affirmed near the top of its range)
– ATEC -32% (Q3 missed as weaker biologics revenue drove cuts to the FY revenue, EBITDA and free-cash-flow outlooks)
– INTC -25% (Q4 revenue, profit and gross-margin guidance fell well short as the PC slowdown is expected to persist into 2027)
– RDDT -22% (strong headline growth was overshadowed by a 2% decline in US daily active users)
– TWLO -19% (Q3 beat and FY outlook rose, but Q4 organic growth is set to slow sharply and operating-profit guidance disappointed)
– RBLX -16% (Q4 bookings forecast calls for a 10% to 15% year-over-year decline)
– ILMN -13% (revenue missed and slowing instrument growth outweighed a guidance raise partly helped by tariff refunds)
– DELL -12%, HPQ -10%, P -7.8%, HPE -7.6% (hardware and storage names tumble as the PC warning and heavy AI spending trigger broad tech de-risking)
– SYK -10% (Q3 sales and profit missed and the FY outlook was cut amid softer hip and knee demand)
– SNDK -9.4% (strong quarter and guidance trigger a high-expectations sell-the-news reaction as consumer revenue fell sharply)
– CCJ -8.7% (Q3 results fell year over year as a longer Key Lake outage raised costs and Westinghouse equity earnings declined)
– CRDO -8.7%, ARM -9.5%, AMD -9.8%, ASX -8.7%, SMTC -9.5%, NVDA -2.7% (semiconductors fall after the weak chip outlook sparks a global technology rout)
– COHR -8.8%, BE -9.0%, NBIS -8.3%, GLW -7.1% (AI-infrastructure names unwind as negative free cash flow renews concerns over capex returns)
– NWG -8.1% (quarterly profit fell, impairment losses nearly doubled and the next buyback decision was deferred)
– WDC -8.1%, STX -7.2% (storage names fall alongside the memory selloff and broader AI-hardware de-risking)
– AMZN -7.4% (Q3 sales and profit missed, free cash flow turned deeply negative and the holiday-quarter sales outlook was cautious)
– PINS -7.3% (Q3 revenue missed guidance and the Q4 outlook implies further growth deceleration)
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 9:21 AM EDT
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 8:55 AM EDT
Source: TheStreet Pro
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 8:43 AM EDT
9:30 a.m.: Fed Bank of Richmond President Barkin (Non-Voter) appears on “The Business Briefing” on SiriusXM;
12:00 p.m.: Fed Bank of San Francisco President Daly (Non-Voter, Dove) speaks about AI and the economy at the Economic Research Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (No prepared remarks. No group media interview. Livestream at https://www.frbsf.org/news-and-media/events/2026/10/remarks-from-philip-lane-2026-economic-research-symposium/);
12:30 p.m.: Fed Bank of St. Louis President Musalem (Non-Voter) speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before a Shadow Open Market Committee meeting, Penn Club of New York, NYC (Text anticipated. Moderated Q&A follows. No media availability. In-person and audio-only virtual option)
SOURCE: TipRanks
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 8:35 AM EDT
“For the foregoing reasons, the Government respectfully requests that the Court give the GAO Report no weight…”
– DEA
This (the DEA’s brief) is very constructive for cannabis rescheduling:
Positions: none
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 8:14 AM EDT
Housekeeping item.
I have covered the balance of my Apple (AAPL) short at $343.69 (down -$5.50 on the day and almost -$9 from my short sale last evening).
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 7:07 AM EDT
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 6:55 AM EDT
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 6:40 AM EDT
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 6:30 AM EDT
Housekeeping item.
I have covered (5:30 AM) a portion of my Apple short at $345.70, moving from S to VS.
I plan to re-short on a rally.
From last night:
Dougie Kass
I added to my Apple short at $352.34 at 805 PM Thursday evening.
Position: Short AAPL (VS)
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 6:20 AM EDT
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 6:10 AM EDT
* I mean baa(d) – Baa? Baa(d)
What full lips you have
They’re sure to lure someone bad
So until you get to Grandma’s place
I think you ought to walk with me and be safe
I’m gonna’ keep my sheep suit on
Until I’m sure that you’ve been shown
That I can be trusted, walking with you alone
Awooh
Little Red Riding Hood
You sure are lookin’ good
You’re everything that a big, bad wolf could want
Awooh! I mean baa
Baa? Baa
– Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs, Little Red Riding Hood
Wolf Street howls about “tech as in drek.”
Tech Makes a Mess as Wrinkles Start to Show. Markets Are Edgy Now, Aren’t They? | Wolf Street
As noted by Wolf Street we have seen unprecedented and large percentage and dollar drops in the world’s biggest technology stocks that have highlighted the last 48 hours of trading:
* Alphabet (GOOGL)
* Amazon (AMZN)
* ServiceNow (NOW)
* Intel (INTC)
* Fortinet (FTNT)
* Reddit (RDDT)
The consensus has been unabashedly optimistic going into this week’s technology earnings releases:
1. From the head cheerleader, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, whose changing narratives have incorrectly but confidently called for an imminent and massive stock market rally:
2. “Group stink” and simplistic first-level thinking from another Halftime panelist shrouded in hubris:
To me, the most audacious part of all this is that there will be no admission of a massive investment mistake nor will there be pushback from the shows’ moderators.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 5:55 AM EDT
The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains slightly overbought at 1.47% vs. 1.84%.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 30, 2026, 5:45 AM EDT
Depreciation and amortization expenses for the five hyperscalers are set to reach $590 billion in 2029. This is likely to exceed their combined operating profits in 2026.
So many missed this and how important it is. Not @sonusvarghese
@DougKass THIRD TIME in the last WEEK that @fundstrat has changed his BOTTOM call. Was last 2 Friday's Ago. Then this week. Today its "between now and midterms" - just more of the same from Tommy Boy and @CNBC
There it is. Over 60% of the S&P 500's components are now in bear market territory, down -20% or more from their record highs. Four of the Magnificent 7 stocks are now in bear market territory, with these seven names erasing a combined -$4 trillion in market cap since their Show more
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AIR FRANCE SAYS FLIGHTS TO AND FROM RIYADH ARE SUSPENDED UNTIL DEC 12, 2026 AIR FRANCE SAYS FLIGHTS TO AND FROM DUBAI ARE SUSPENDED UNTIL NOV 7, 2026
This comment below is wrong. It will end badly because US consumption needs the SR to keep falling to maintain rapid growth, well ahead of c.0% income growth. As soon as the SR stops falling, C grows in line with Y. And if the stock maket falls and the SR rises, C is in trouble. Show more
I actually believe this data to be consistent with the broken nature of the IPO process. Instead of seeking a true market price they are trying to reward their clients w big one day pops. Those charts show retail getting taken to the cleaners.
Drawdown Josh Brown's bullish, confident and remarkably simplistic soliloquy on technology earnings and stock prices this week (below) summarizes what is so wrong with Fin TV and the business media. The investment mosaic is so much more complex than his 'glittering generalities' Show more
@TheStreetPro They Know Nothing I won’t mince words. If you all don’t now understand my constant criticism of Fin TV and their absence of analytical rigor/investment process (no modelling but alot of regurgitation while viewing the rear view mirror), lack of time stamping (and
