After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 8% below its one-month average 

– NASDAQ volume 28% below its one-month average 

– VIX index: down 5.03% to15.67

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

I am leaving early to meet some friends and watch the World Cup.

Thanks for reading my Diary today.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

Position: None 

Wolf Street howls about PPI (ex-energy).

Position: None

* This sort of sector and sub-sector movement rarely ends well…

The violence of the market’s rotation is not a good thing.

It is only a matter of time before we see a (leveraged) hedge fund blow up. 

I believe it might be presaging a market structure “event” — such as a flash crash (at some point).

Position: None

I am reinitiating a short in the Russell index:

* IWM $296.08

Non-broadening philosophy.

Position: Short IWM (S)

I am covering some of my high-beta/high-tech positions in my short basket now:

* CRWV $74.91 (-$5)

* AMD $512.45 (-36) 

* MU $879.74 (-$104)

* INTC $99.53 (-$8)

* SNDK $1,498 (-$259)

* AMAT $559.96 (-$36)

* CAT $892.69  (-$41)

Position: Short CRWV (VS), AMD (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), SNDK (VS), AMAT (VS), CAT (VS)

SpaceX (SPCX) breaks its IPO price ($135).

We are maintaining our short (in at $213).

Position: Short SPCX (VS)

Interesting options trading comments:

Frdgrouper

Under the FWIW heading. I know some of you are option traders, so I’m going to suggest you become familiar with rule 390. I was aware of the rule previously only because a friend was wired to the CBOE. I trade on TOS and in May and June traded quite a few options. 390 is as it sounds. If you average more than 390 contracts a day for a month you will be labled a professional “W” for three months. This puts you in the penalty box because price improvement, openning participation etc. are a thing of the past. It is very difficult to trade unless you hit a bid or take an offer under this scenario. There is no warning to this penalty. In fact you really don’t even know you are being punished except that your trades aren’t getting executed. It is up to you to make this discovery. There is a new rule pending where a one month penalty may be applied. I have applied for this but so far no answer. i doubt Charles Schwab will rule for me as opposed to the liquidity providers that pay CS for each order. You would think that 390 is a giant number but the rule counts any cancels or cancel replaced orders as well. There is no running total available so you must keep track on your own. I find it offensive that first time abusers are held to the same standards as serial abusers. Rant over.

Position: None

With this intraday drop I am covering my Index shorts for a quick profit:

* SPY (SPY) $753.73

* QQQ (QQQ) $716.97

From earlier:

Sizing Up to … Small on Index Shorts

I have moved from very small to small-sized short the indexes:

* SPY  (SPY) $755.12

* QQQ (QQQ) $723.12

I plan to scale on any more strength.

Positions: Short SPY S QQQ S

BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 9:47 AM EDT

Positions: None.

The imbalance and spastic relationship between memory/semis (weak) vis-à-vis hyperscalers (strong) continue today.

Like a baby splashing in a bathtub, the situation is changing daily.

Tough to evaluate and trade on an intraday basis.

I am long (AMZN), (GOOGL) and (MSFT) and I am short a basket of semis and memory stocks (e.g (MU) (SNDK) (INTC) (AMD) (AMAT).

Positions: Long AMZN VS GOOGL VS MSFT VS; short MU VS SNDK VS INTC VS AMD VS AMAT VS 

I have moved from very small to small-sized short the indexes:

* SPY  (SPY) $755.12

* QQQ (QQQ) $723.12

I plan to scale on any more strength.

Positions: Short SPY S QQQ S

I just covered this morning’s MS (MS) short for a quick +$7 gain (at $224.69).

From earlier this morning:

Second-Level Shorting

I have added to my Morgan Stanley (MS) short (at $231.37) after the “better than expected” earnings per share release.

Here is the complete release:  2Q26 MS Earnings Release

I am employing second level thinking. Howard Marks: The Importance of Second-Level Thinking • Novel Investor

Positions: Short MS S 

BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 8:20 AM EDT

Short MS VS

Bond prices (and yields) are entering the “danger zone.”

TLT (TLT), another low.

As I noted earlier, the equity risk discount is growing ever wider.

Position: None.

I have added to my Morgan Stanley (MS) short (at $231.37) after the “better than expected” earnings per share release.

Here is the complete release:  2Q26 MS Earnings Release

I am employing second level thinking. Howard Marks: The Importance of Second-Level Thinking • Novel Investor

Positions: Short MS S 

billmc

37m ago

Cramer advised not bring overly concerned regarding current forward market PE vs in 1999 on his intro last night. My thought was that market concentration risk is the issue, not relative PEs.

1ReplyShare

Dougie Kass

35m ago

market structure (disproportionate role of passive strategies and products) when combined with the gamification of the markets (ODTE, levered ETFs etc) are the risks I see. 

ReplyShare

Asaxelrod

2m ago

Cramer also berated the ETFs yesterday morning for causing dislocation across some tech based on IBM’s pre-announcement, the guy only pumps momentum and likes the ETFs when they are simply reinforcing that momentumReplyShare

Dougie Kass

just now

axe  as i have commented he doesnt complain when momentum based investors (ETFs and others) bid up stock prices…

Positions: None.

Wolf Street howls about foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries.

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains modestly overbought at 1.53% vs. 1.44%. 

Position: None

I am back shorting the indices:

* SPY $753.78
* QQQ $723.52

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)