Daily Diary

Doug KassDoug Kass
DATE:

Programming Note

I have a Board meeting from 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. today — outside of the office.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 11:45 AM EST

Charting the Late Morning Market

Breadth

SOURCE: Barchart

S&P500  Sectors

SOURCE: Barchart

% Gainers, Decliners

SOURCE: TheStreet Pro

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

SOURCE TheFly

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 11:26 AM EST

More Tales From Nvidia: The Shakeup Edition (Issue #277!)

Colette Kress is an odd choice by the board of Nvidia (NVDA) to become interim CEO, because she will be spending a lot of time with the attorneys, no real time to be CEO. (Read: “Who Is Colette Kress, the Interim Nvidia CEO Replacing Jensen Huang?” in the The New York Times)

She is potentially vulnerable to termination along with the others involved in both the Megaspeed-related stuff, as well as the financial/disclosure-related issues. 

She was the one communicating all the misleading stuff re-sales to Asia/China as well, and she was CFO when they changed their geographical rev recognition on this issue. I believe there are going to be so many more shoes to drop on this thing it is not even funny. 

My view is that NVDA is currently not investable. 

It may or may not be tradeable.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 10:50 AM EST

Gold Eye

Good sales on gold recently.

Looking to buy under $345

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EST

Boockvar on Nvidia, Yen, Rally Setup?

The following was written by Peter Boockvar:

Who was it that said ‘Truth is stranger than fiction’?/A few other things of note

A hugely successful company doesn’t have to stop being one just because its founder CEO is no longer there if the right people are in place and the best products that customers want are made. That said, it never really is the same. We watch from here the extent competitors take market share (AMD and Broadcom are trading up premarket) and wonder what comes of future investments and financing that Nvidia makes with so many of its partners. As of Q2 (and we’ll get updated figure next week), the company had $99 billion of equity investments in other companies which does not include all the vendor financing and lease guarantees they’ve made on the part of others.

From a contrarian standpoint, the more sour mood heading into this week was the perfect setup for a rally. Yesterday, Investors Intelligence survey said the number of Bulls fell to just 37 from 42.6 while Bears jumped to 24.1 from 18.5. Both are back to early April levels when markets at the time responded to the spike in oil prices and stock market selloff in March. The balance expecting a Correction remained the same at 38.9. Assume those figures capture sentiment as of last Friday. Today, AAII said Bulls fell by 3.3 pts to 30.8, the lowest since July and around the levels seen in March. Those Bulls went to Neutral as Bears declined too, by 4.4 pts to 41.4. The CNN Fear/Greed index is at 37 (Fear) vs 19 (Extreme Fear) one week ago.

With almost nothing else of big importance going on today and certainly difficult to compare anywhere close in relevance to what is going on with Jensen Huang, I’ll go over one earnings calls and a snippet from a release today.

From Brightview Holdings, a stock we own and one that you’ve likely never heard of. They are the largest commercial landscaping company in the country with about 75% of their business land maintenance and the balance new development and whose latter division was subject to a slowdown in residential community construction and which hit the stock by almost 14% yesterday:

“The slowdown in development was driven by three key factors. A sharpening decline in the residential construction end market, delays on several large jobs and delayed bid awards as customers navigate a volatile macro environment underpinned by higher interest rates and inflation. Since 2024, our development revenue related to residential projects has softened in line with the broader slowdown in residential construction.”

Yeti is down premarket after reporting earnings as revenues missed and mentioned this in their release, “Looking ahead, we anticipate the consumer environment will remain cautious and put pressure on demand in Q4.”

Japan said its October PPI jumped by 7.1% y/o/y, above the estimate of 6.5% and up from 6.8% in September. This is another example of a country seeing PPI running well ahead of CPI. Higher energy prices were certainly a key factor and have since pulled back this month as we know but the breadth of price increases were widespread.

As of now, the JGB market is pricing in an 82% chance of a December rate increase from the BoJ to 1.50%.

With the yen testing 160 again vs the US dollar, out comes Atsushi Mimura, the currency official at the Ministry of Finance who said “I have a strong impression that the currency moves over the past few days have been too fast. It’s too early to forget what happened this summer.” This was followed by a government spokesperson who said “I believe the yen being undervalued is a problem” and “The Ministry of Finance will continue to closely communicate with the US Treasury to maintain order in the currency markets.”

Yen

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 9:50 AM EST

Boockvar on Jobless Claims

The following is from Peter Boockvar:

Claims data

Initial jobless claims rose 9k w/o/w to 200k and that was 6k above expectations. The 4 week average though remains the same at 195k as a print of 200kk dropped out. Continuing claims remained low, falling to 1.697mm from 1.717mm.

Bottom line, notwithstanding the lift, the filing of claims remains very low and the amount still collecting benefits remains well below the 1.9mm ish seen last year.

4 week avg Initial Claims

Continuing Claims

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 9:15 AM EST

Eli Lilly Up, Nvidia Down: Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Upside

– LUNR +10% (record Q3 revenue, margin and positive free cash flow, with backlog reaching $1.9 billion)

– TTEK +10% (Q4 beat, backlog rose 13% and the FY27 outlook pointed to continued growth)

– DPU +9.4% (completed deliveries under a $4.8 million robot resale contract)

– FIGR +6.8% (Q3 earnings reaction after marketplace volume reached the high end of prior guidance)

– LLY +1.6% (China approves oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug orforglipron)

Downside

– NBIS -15% (Q3 revenue beat, but the 2026 outlook moved to the low end, the ARR target slipped to February and capex increased)

– EYE -13% (Q3 profit beat and margins expanded, but FY comparable-sales guidance was cut to 2%-3% from 3%-5%)

– CRWV -11%, IREN -7.8%, SMCI -6.9%, APLD -6.6%, DELL -6.2% (AI-infrastructure names sell off as the NVDA leadership crisis hits risk appetite; CRWV also gives back part of its post-earnings surge)

– CTVA -10% (Q3 sales fell 9% and the FY outlook was cut on weaker Brazil conditions and pricing pressure)

– NVDA -8.6% (reports the board is weighing Jensen Huang’s ouster amid widening governance and national-security scrutiny; multiple downgrades add pressure)

– AAOI -7.8%, SNDK -7.2%, AXTI -7.8%, COHR -6.1%, MU -5.3%, LITE -5.4% (AI optical, memory and component suppliers fall as the NVDA crisis ripples through the hardware chain)

– FPS -7.4% (Q1 exceeded preannounced guidance and the FY outlook was raised, but strong results were already priced as AI-power names sold off)

– MSTR -6.7%, MARA -5.9%, CLSK -5.5%, RIOT -5.3%, COIN -4.5% (crypto-linked stocks fall as Bitcoin declines and broader risk appetite weakens)

– BABA -5.0% (report says the US is preparing restrictions on Chinese AI companies remotely accessing advanced chips through overseas data centers)

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 9:02 AM EST

Economics Calendar for Today

Source: TipRanks

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 8:33 AM EST

More Interesting Than Fiction

In light of the Jensen Huang revelations yesterday I wanted to repeat a story I have written before.

As most know I was very close to Barron’s Alan Abelson.

Over the course of the last few decades Alan interviewed me over 50 times — I am not aware of anyone (and that includes a far distant second, Barton Biggs) who was interviewed in his “Up and Down Street” column as often.

One year (on Alan’s birthday) I sent him a present of several fictional books which were best sellers on The New York Times list of top books to his home in Croton-on-Hudson.

About two weeks later the books were returned to me by Alan with a note that said:

“Dougie, thanks for the birthday present but what goes on in Wall Street and in the Corporate World is far more interesting than any book of fiction.”

True story!

Position: None 

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 8:00 AM EST

More Tales From Nvidia: How Jensen Huang Does Anything Is How He Does Everything (Issue #276!)

* As I have written over the last two years, Jensen Huang was given too much control and autonomy at Nvidia (NVDA).

* In our series, “More Tales,”  we frequently questioned things like “roundtripping” (that the consensus freely accepted) and other aggressive company policy — now we know there was a reason to question Jensen Huang’s judgment on many levels (including the well-known and vast AI circular financing)

* With the benefit of hindsight (and the failure of investors to recall Jensen’s past aggressive use of accounting and his SEC violations of accounting and disclosure rules), most now recognize how Jensen Huang does anything is how Jensen Huang does everything 

* The company’s Board and investors have to now assess the most recent radius of his control of the company with regard to investments and other positions (like roundtripping) he has taken.

*  However, complicating matters is that the judgment of the Board must also be questioned if Jensen Huang’s affair was a secret that was only known to them — they are vulnerable and a wholesale change has more than a non-trivial possibility

* There are not only corporate governance issues regarding Nvidia, there are government governance problems (Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick may be shortly gone, as my Gnome has heard) 

* For reasons mentioned in this column, the Anthropic IPO might now be in jeopardy

* Written last night…. following the bouncing ball!

Written at 7 PM Wednesday

And it sounds official per the Wall Street Journal:

Nvidia Is Preparing to Oust CEO Jensen Huang

That Board is now badly exposed. The Board could slam the brakes on everything that was associated with him, including their commitment for $10 billion of Anthropic’s IPO private placement and any other “central banking”-related activities, as well as shut down every single shipment of product not going anywhere that they are not 100% certain of the bona fides.

The Board should immediately stop every single extraneous thing now except for the basics of running the business. I would start with trying to collect receivables, and there is no shortage of them!

In terms of who runs the thing, there might not be any senior executives at the company they can even turn to. It seems they all had to know about a lot of the stuff, not just Jensen Huang’s personal behavior, but all the China/Asia dealings and financial stuff touches a lot of people at the company.

I think Jensen Hunag will not be the only one to go, not even close.

One more reason they need to slam the breaks on everything, ASAP.

Written at 6:30 PM Wednesday

And there you go, as they said in Looney Tunes, “That’s All Folks!” 

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/11/technology/jensen-huang-nvidia-affair.html

As I wrote, this should not be a surprise from Jensen Huang, the boob signer. Like I said, it is a mathematical certainty, when there are two ants in the kitchen, there are more than two ants in the house. In fact, there are normally hundreds if not thousands. 

The fact that all of this is coming out at once, well it clearly all had to be known for a long time too.  Just like Megaspeed and the other stuff was there for anyone to see, and they did not have to look very hard. But everyone, including Wall Street and the Commerce Department, chose to look away. (My Gnome is hearing that Howard Lutnick (the Commerce Secretary) will be gone soon). 

There will be tons of things for the investigators and regulators to look at on top of the China/Megaspeed related stuff too — disclosure, accounting, circular financing, all of it. Maybe they will do a better job of it than the last two or three times. If all they give is a slap on the wrist, the behavior repeats, in spades. 

All the money printing from the Central Bank of Nvidia should now come to an end. We go from QE, to QT, and Q-Flee (or Flea).

Speaking of ants, back to that wildly oversubscribed ANT IPO. Joke. Lining up to buy what the insiders are selling? Who would be foaming at the mouth to do that, while at the same time piling into a structure that gives you no rights, and whose CEO, per that video I sent in two prior, is cuckoo for cocoa puffs, while the underlying fundamentals are eroding and their forward commitments are through the roof, and the central banker will now be in withdrawal mode? Don’t fight the Fed, right?

Written at 5:00 PM Wednesday

It is hard to believe Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is not toast, and in this case, he should be, in my view. Self-interested and unlikable, does not help with vote totals and perception either. Only question I have is if Treasury Secretary Bessent punches him in the face before he exits stage left:

Scoop: Bessent confronts Lutnick in Situation Room over China inaction

* I call B.S. on this story regarding the Anthropic IPO being wildly over-subscribed. But this is what they do to try and drive demand. If there is so much institutional demand, why the private placement and why the 20% allocation to retail? The road show just started too, orders really do not roll in yet and allocations do not happen yet. Not to mention, you cannot resell your allocation at a premium because nobody has an allocation yet, and you can’t just sell an allocation to someone else. The way you do sell it at a premium, in theory, is flip it out if it trades up on the offering. Further, this whole IPO is B.S. on top of B.S. This story smacks of desperation IMHO and does not pass the smell test:

Also, if I remember correctly, Nvidia under his watch has two or three prior SEC violations for accounting or disclosure issues.

And the company does not engage in circular financing transactions or make loans to its customers. Oh… wait! From Herbela Greenberg:

Nvidia – ‘He Did Not Have Sexual Relations With That Woman’

Position: None

Position: None
 

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 7:24 AM EST

My Dell Trade

Good sale of Dell (DELL) yesterday (between $361-$381):

From Diary:

Sold More Dell

I just sold some more DELL at $381.55.

Position: Long DELL (VVS)

BY Doug Kass · Nov 11, 2026, 11:53 AM EST

From Comments Section:

Brucetrader

Good Morning all. Thank you Doug, I followed you on the DELL trade and it paid for my subscription for the rest of my life. Impeccable timing entry and exit. 

Dougie Kass

Love!

Last sale is under $360 in premarket trading.

I am a buyer under $350.

Position: Long DELL (VVS)

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 6:58 AM EST

Oscillator Still Overbought

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains in overbought at 1.02% vs. 0.83%.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Nov 12, 2026, 5:45 AM EST