What a day! What a rally. Could have been a heck of a lot worse.

Markets opened on weakness Thursday, after a bloody day for stocks on Wednesday. Oil sold off, which was nice. That left some room for equities to rally ahead of Friday’s BLS labor market survey results for the month of May.

Thursday morning was defined by a sharp rotation out of tech. The Nasdaq Composite opened sharply lower before closing just below the unchanged mark. The S&P 500 added 0.4% for the day.

Health Care led the markets for the day, as providers and pharmaceuticals led health care. Humana (HUM) and UnitedHealth (UNH) gained 6.8% and 5.5% respectively. On the flipside, the semiconductors took a pounding as Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron (MU) surrendered 12.5% and 7.2% in that order. Nine of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed the regular session in the green.

Quantum computing firm Quantinuum (QNT) finally opened trading at $68 per share on the Nasdaq after its initial public offering. The company raised $1.68 billion after pricing the shares at $60 a piece.

The BLS is set to release its Jobs numbers for May tomorrow at 08:30. Consensus view is for growth of 105K non-farm positions. These results are expected to impact the outcome of the June FOMC meeting.

Have a good night, gang. It’s always a pleasure to pitch in relief of the ace of our staff, Dougie Kass. May you have a pleasant evening, and may God hold and protect those you love.

Sarge

Position: Long MU equity

Question:

In 1982, Rickey Henderson of the Oakland Athletics stole 130 bases. He was also caught stealing 42 times. Both are MLB records. In fact, no one else has ever been caught more than 33 times.

Only four other players (one time each) have been caught stealing 30 or more times in a single season. All of those seasons occurred between 1965 and 1983.

Name the four other “would-be” base-stealers….

Answer:

1) In 1965, Maury Wills of the LA Dodgers stole 94 bases and was caught 31 times.
2) In 1974, Lou Brock of the St. Louis Cardinals stole 118 bases and was caught 33 times.
3) In 1980, Omar Moreno of the Pit Pirates stole 96 bases and was caught 33 times.
4) In 1983, Steve Sax of the LA Dodgers stole 56 bases and was caught 30 times.

In 1982, Rickey Henderson of the Oakland Athletics stole 130 bases. He was also caught stealing 42 times. Both are MLB records. In fact, no one else has ever been caught more than 33 times.

Only four other players (one time each) have been caught stealing 30 or more times in a single season. All of those seasons occurred between 1965 and 1983.

Name the four other “would-be” base-stealers…. 

Yes, I’ve added to IBM (IBM) on today’s weakness.

Readers will see that after falling out of bed late this past winter, the shares of IBM had developed a rectangle pattern with a $258 pivot over the following three-month period. The stock broke out of that pattern in response to the above news flow. In doing so, IBM took back its 21-day EMA, 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. 

Relative Strength is still quite robust but has now come off of a technically overbought level. Below the chart, the MACD now has a lot of bullish momentum, and is still postured in that way. Within that indicator, the histogram of the 9-day EMA is now well into bullish territory while the 12-day EMA is holding its ground above the 26-day EMA.

What if we strip away the rectangle? Take a look:

It’s a little lopsided, but IBM has developed a “cup with handle” pattern bearing a $331 pivot. This, in my opinion, refreshes the bullish setup for this stock. 

International Business Machines (IBM)

Price Target: $397 (up from $337)

Pivot: $331

Add: Down to 200-day SMA (Currently $272)

Panic: Loss of that 200-day line. 

Position: Long IBM equity

Buying CrowdStrike as Strong Quarter Indicates Acceleration

Position: Long CRWD equity

Hmmm…​

If that’s a Double Top on the right, then Nvidia (NVDA) tested the downside pivot this morning and passed that trial.

I will add just a smidge here…

Position: Long NVDA equity.

I wrote a piece on one of my favorite holdings, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) here at TheStreet Pro earlier this week. I still believe what I wrote. My target price is still $588. I have been looking at the chart, though and think perhaps a bit of warning (not a call to panic) may be in order. This is the chart that I gave you… 

I wrote the following: “Readers will see that AMD broke out sharply in April from the basing pattern (rectangle) of consolidation that ran from late October into late April. The shares obliterated my temporary target price of $456 as May wore on. We sold a small amount. What now? The shares look to have created a Rising Wedge pattern of bearish reversal as Relative Strength had reached technically overbought levels. The daily MACD is also ripe for some bloodletting.”     

I then added, “How severe will it be? I’ll tell you what I’m doing. I am likely to add should the stock approach the mid-May high of $470, but not before.” So, I’ve had a clue that a sell-off could be coming. Now, we’ll erase the Rising Wedge pattern, which can be bearish to begin with, and see what we can see…       

Looks a lot like a head & shoulders pattern of bearish reversal, doesn’t it. Should that pattern come to fruition, it should be noted that H&S patterns, in my non-scientific opinion, are more reliable than Rising Wedges that in theory can go on almost forever. Just some brain food for the crew here at the Diary. 


Positions: Long AMD equity.

Rocket Lab Sees Insider Selling, But My Plan Is to Buy | TheStreet Pro


Positions: Long ALTO. AMZN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PLTR, RKLB, SIDU, SNAP, SOFI, VELO equity. Short OCUL, SNAP, SOFI calls.

Quantum computing stocks sold off hard on Wednesday ahead of the Quantinuum IPO at the Nasdaq Market Site on Thursday. Quantinuum, which is majority owned by Honeywell (HON), will officially begin trading later today under the ticker symbol “QNT.”

On Wednesday, Infleqtion (INFQ) gave up 12.4%, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) gave back 10.4%, and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) surrendered 7.9%. Even the mighty IBM (IBM) lost 7.2%.

Last night, Quantinuum announced that it has raised $1.68 billion in its initial public offering after pricing 28 million shares at $60 apiece.

I will be adding to my long position in IBM (still up 31.6%) at some point this morning.

Positions: Long IBM equity.

Wall St. Takes Hit on Iran Fire, SpaceX Takes Off, Middle-Class ‘Struggle’

Iran ceasefire looks near collapse; SpaceX valuation at $1.75 trillion; Beige Book sees some in middle-income bracket ‘struggling more.’

S&P Futures: -32 vs FV. 

Nasdaq Futures: -430 vs FV. 

10-Year Note: 4.46%.

2-Year Note: 4.05%.

3-Month T-Bill: 3.71%.

US Dollar Index: -0.33%

WTI Crude: $93.53. 

Gold: +1.17%

Silver: +0.74%.

Bitcoin: -4.54%. 

Position: Long physical gold & silver

Another redemption wave is spooking the $2 trillion private-credit market – MarketWatch 

Position: None

Since 2001, day traders in the U.S. have been required to maintain a balance of $25K in their accounts. If these traders failed to do that, they would only be permitted to execute three day trades over a five-day period. Making a fourth trade in five days would flag them as pattern day traders and they would then be locked out of their accounts. The pattern day trading rule was adopted by FINRA in 2001 in response to the collapse of the dot-com bubble. These requirements were implemented in order to cut excessive risk-taking and reduce speculative activity.

Under a new system, effective today, the $25K minimum balance has gone the way of the blacksmith. So has the rule that counts trades and so has the “Pattern Day Trader” moniker. Instead, broker-dealers will utilize new tools to assess the actual risk of any one trader’s activity.

By the way, existing margin requirements aren’t going anywhere. I, for one, am in favor of this development, as at times, I have had one smaller account or another become more active. The system did not adjust for traders with several accounts that might hold a larger balance in aggregate who needed to be active for a short time in a smaller account. 

Position: None

S&P Futures: -33 vs FV. 

Nasdaq Futures: -395 vs FV. 

10-Year Note: 4.48%.

2-Year Note: 4.06%.

3-Month T-Bill: 3.71%.

US Dollar Index: -0.21%

WTI Crude: $95.27. 

Gold: +0.67%

Silver: -0.15%.

Bitcoin: -4.61%. 

Position: Long physical gold & silver 

Rise and shine, cupcake. It’s Thursday morning and the pitchforks are out. Time to get after it. ]No, Wednesday wasn’t just a bad dream. Nasdaq futures are trading “ugly” this morning while S&P futures are simply trading “in the red.”

Dougie is off today. It is I, Sarge. I will be your tour guide for the day, so let’s crank it up. Coffee, push-ups (or some personally appropriate activity), repeat. 

I, I’m invincible
I’m indestructible
It’s my destiny

I’m invincible
I’m unshakable
Through the truth in my soul

– John Cooper (Skillet), 2000

Rock on, my brothers and sisters. Helmets, flak jackets, gas masks and three sources of water. I want everyone out on the parade field with their gear in fifteen minutes.

Now, move…  

Position: None