Palantir and Onsemi Calm AI Concerns: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Tuesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive start for the trading day ahead.

1. An attack on a vessel near the Strait of Hormuz and a rebound in oil prices on Tuesday underscored doubts that the U.S.-Iran war was nearing a resolution, as Tehran pushed ‌back against President Donald Trump’s assertion that talks were under way. Oil prices rose nearly 3% after a steep selloff in the previous session as investors reassessed optimism over diplomacy, while a cargo vessel reported being struck by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz off Oman’s coast, according to the UKMTO maritime security agency. (Reuters)

Yesterday we cheekily commented that President Trump’s claims over a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran evoked images from the movie Groundhog Day. Tehran’s pushback adds to that view, but the question now is what comes next? If peace talks are the outcome, that would likely drive another leg lower in oil prices. If not, and a forceful military campaign ensues, oil and other petrochemical prices will rebound further.

This is not an easy place for Trump to be, especially given new poll results from Reuters/Ipsos showing Americans picked Democrats over Republicans as better stewards of the economy for the first time in nearly a decade and their approval of Trump’s performance falling to 35%. For those counting, we have just over 90 days until the U.S. midterm elections.

2. The U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar with the data, raising concerns about the military’s readiness for future conflicts. The missiles are principally the Army’s surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The U.S. has used “virtually all” of these weapons, according to two of the sources. (Reuters)

Some would say this explains the strong tone from President Trump as he looks to bring an end to the conflict. To us it’s a pain point that may need to be addressed should the war continue. Unlike oil prices that are likely to fall if and when a peaceful settlement is reached, the U.S. will still need to rebuild its military munitions.

3. Palantir Technologies Inc. shares rose in premarket trading after the company boosted full-year revenue and income forecasts and described commercial demand for its data analytics tools as “otherworldly.” Palantir now expects $4.89 billion to $4.91 billion in adjusted income from operations this year, up from $4.45 billion at the top end of the range previously… Palantir Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp said US commercial sales in the second quarter were “staggering,” rising 149% from a year earlier to $764 million, well above the average analyst estimate of $716.4 million. (Bloomberg)

We will have much more to say on Palantir’s (PLTR) impressive quarterly results and the role they play in confirming AI adoption is rising and usage expanding. If we had to highlight one metric in those results, it would be the 124% year over year and 27% quarter over quarter growth in the company’s U.S. commercial remaining deal value. If pressed for a second, it would be the record-setting $2.132 billion of U.S. commercial total contract value bookings, which rose 153% year over year.

4. Shares of chip company On Semiconductor rose Monday after it beat analysts’ expectations for both earnings and revenue in its second fiscal quarter. It also raised guidance on revenue from sales to artificial intelligence data centers, which it now says will more than double this year. (Barron’s)

While the AI and data center business at OnSemiconductor (ON) is one of the company’s smaller businesses, the ramp in that business helps connect the dots between hyperscaler spending and what we’re likely to hear from Nvidia (NVDA), Marvell (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO) and others serving the AI and data center buildout.

What was also interesting to hear from OnSemiconductor was this:

“Given the accelerated ramp in AI data center demand, we prioritized shipments to AI data center over automotive and industrial. We expect this to normalize as supply rebalances to match demand.”

The read through on that is memory isn’t the only area contending with capacity constraints that are leading to shortages in other markets as it looks to meet AI and data center demand.

5. The company is reaffirming its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030 off the 2025 midpoint of $6.30, with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. (Duke Energy)

That’s the guidance served up by Duke Energy (DUK) this morning as the electric utility reported mixed Q2 2026 results that beat on the bottom line but fell short on the top one. What the earnings press release did not touch on but was found in Duke’s Q2 2026 earnings presentation was the reiteration of its $103 billion capital plan for 2026-2030. That plan includes “upgrading existing infrastructure and building new power generation to support growth” and it’s a reminder of the aggregate electric utility spending that supports the Portfolio’s position in Eaton (ETN).

6. SpaceX reports its inaugural quarterly numbers on Tuesday evening. A lot will be said about rocketry, AI, space, and even the future of human civilization. For starters, investors can look at top and bottom line numbers… The AI business generated first-quarter 2026 revenue of $818 million and an operating loss of $2.5 billion. Capital spending in the quarter amounted to $7.7 billion. Those are the three numbers to watch. (Barron’s)

Call us a bit cynical if you will, but given the proximity of the IPO, if SpaceX (SPCX) missed top and bottom-line expectations for its inaugural quarter as a public company that would be something. However, in addition to those three figures flagged as ones to watch, following results from the hyperscalers and the market’s reception, we’d add cash flow and free cash flow comments to that short-list.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: LMI Logistics Managers Index (July), Imports/Exports (June), JOLTS Job Openings & Quits (June), Factory Orders (June).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: Open: ADM (ADM), Apollo (APO), BP (BP), Caterpillar (CAT), Cummins (CMI), Duke Energy (DUK), Ferrari (RACE), Grainger (GWW), Henry Schein (HSIC), Idexx (IDXX), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), McDonald’s (MCD), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Shopify (SHOP), Spotify (SPOT), Trex (TREX). Close: AMD (AMD), Arista Networks (ANET), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Emerson (EMR), Interparfums (IPAR), International Flavors (IFF), Jacobs Solutions (J), Lumen Technologies (LUMN), Mattel (MAT), Mosaic (MOS), Pinterest (PINS), SpaceX (SPCX), and Toast (TOST).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AVGO, ETN, MRVL, NVDA, and PLTR.