New Aspen Aerogel Price Target After Markets Enter Meltdown Mode
The small-cap firm posted a beat and has found some support.
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As financial markets went into meltdown mode, the portfolio, which as readers know has not done well at all, went into action.
I sent out a second alert for the day out of necessity, though that’s something I really cannot do. As readers know, I am bound by a number of specific self-created rules that are meant to keep followers out of deep trouble if they are following along and to make sure that they don’t do anything I shouldn’t myself.
One of those rules is the “one-note-per-morning” thing. Another is the decision to not use of margin to create or increase long positions. While we do use margin to take on short positions or to write options trades, we try to keep those options trades simple. We don’t use margin on the long side out of respect to new traders or those without large portfolios as they might be using cash accounts to trade.
I also, when stating intentions, have to wait for the article to be published and become public information. This often leads to significantly different prices than the ones I dreamed up when writing the piece, sometimes several hours before I can act. By that same token, if the Sarge-folio has what is usually a much larger position in the same stock as the $10K Portfolio, my real book has to take a back seat to tis portfolio.
The one rule that I made for this book that I am doubting the wisdom of is my long-standing 8% rule. I have often stated that I refuse to take a loss of 8% on any position unless it happens overnight while I am sleeping. I suspended that rule for this portfolio for low-priced stocks as it does not take much for these names to move 10%, 20% or more. Suspending that rule is hurting this portfolio’s performance as we have suffered a few real doozies.
Back to the Book
On Thursday, the portfolio exited Planet Labs (PL) at a catastrophic loss in order to raise cash. That’s an example right there. Remember when we tried to get out of PL with a $20 handle? By the time this column was published that day, PL was trading around $17, so I tried to trade around it. On Thursday, we puked that position with an $11 handle. Should not have played games with that one.
Moving on, we added to Ondas Inc (ONDS), which is one where the 8% rule would have helped. We closed the (OCUL) covered call at close to maximum profitability. We also added to SoFi (SOFI) down 7.7% and Rocket Lab (RKLB) down 12.2%.
Yes…
I did say that I would cover Aspen Aerogel (ASPN) earnings on Friday. Long story short, ASPN beat on both the top and bottom lines as sales grew 16.7% year over year. Guidance for the current quarter was mixed. Sales growth is expected to pop, but profitability will remain elusive. Cash flows remain mildly negative, but the balance sheet is still golden.
Readers will see that ASPN has just come out of a bearish pennant formation but has caught some support at its 200-day SMA. The bulls need that spot to hold as that implies that professionals could be add on dips around here. The upside pivot remans the 50-day SMA. RSI is improving. The daily MACD is bearish in nature but looks to have possibly made a bullish turn in response to these earnings. The portfolio is reducing its target price from $10 to $8.
Upcoming Portfolio Earnings
Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL), Monday, November 9
Consensus: adjusted EPS of -$0.35 on revenue of $14.3 million
Rocket Lab (RKLB), Monday, November 9
Consensus: adjusted EPS of -$0.02 on revenue of $257.2 million
Evolv Technologies (EVLV), Tuesday, November 10
Consensus: adjusted EPS of -$0.02 on revenue of $45.6 million
Ondas Inc (ONDS), Friday, November 13
Consensus: adjusted EPS of -$0.09 on revenue of $148.1 million
Thursday’s Intentions vs Actual Trades
Intention: Purchase one OCUL $9 December 18 call at $0.20 or better. Limited (closed the options position).
Actual trade: Bought one OCUL $9 December 18 call at $0.15
Intention: Purchase 10 shares of ONDS at or close to the last sale of $5.05
Actual trade: Bought 10 shares of ONDS at $4.43
Intention: Sell (write) one (covered) PL December 18 $15 call at $0.80 or better. Limited.
Actual trade: Cancelled
Intention: Sell 110 shares of PL at or close to the last sale of $11.30 (we needed the cash)
Actual trade: Sold 110 shares of PL at $11.24
Intention: Purchase 25 shares of SOFI at or close to the last sale of $15.80
Actual trade: Bought 25 shares of SOFI at $15.86
Intention: Purchase 6 shares of RKLB at or close to the last sale of $46.10
Actual trade: Bought 6 shares of RKLB at $45.70
Friday’s Intentions
Purchase 30 shares of (PTON) at or close to the last sale of $5.67
Purchase 20 shares of ASPN at or close to the last sale of $5.14
Current Positions
Long 60 shares of (ASPN) at $5.1083. Target price: $8. Last sale: $5.14.
Long 50 shares of (EVLV) at $5.33.92. Target price: $7.50. Last sale: $4.45.
Long 170 shares of (OCUL) at $7.9692. Target price: $12. Last sale: $6.50.
Long 330 shares of (ONDS) at $7.5402. Target price: $12. Last sale: $4.77.
Long 70 shares of (PTON) at $5.0654. Target price: $9. Last close: $5.67.
Long 20 shares of (RKLB) at $50.942. Target price: $84. Last close: $48.86.
Long 150 shares of (SOFI) at $15.947. Target price: $24. Last close: $16.18.
Cash: $923.91.
Portfolio value: $7,926.80, -20.7% from inception on March 24.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PTON, RKLB and SOFI.
