Jobs Report May Impact Holiday Shopping Season: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a mixed open with the Nasdaq looking to claw back some of Thursday’s brutal selloff.

1. President Trump said after meeting with his national security advisers Thursday that he’ll soon decide whether to resume all-out war in Iran now that the midterms are over… The president, at least for now, is considering three options: launch new strikes, continue to strangle Iran’s regime economically, or cut a deal that includes significant concessions to the Iranians. (Axios)

While U.S. equity futures point to parts of the market clawing back some of Thursday’s brutal selloff, the above suggests potential weekend developments could either help the market bottom out or bring another reason for investors to stay on the sidelines.

2. US nonfarm payrolls likely picked up in October, but an anticipated slowdown in annual wage growth to below 3.0% for the first time in nearly 5-1/2 years would reinforce the view that the labor market was not a source of inflation. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2% last month, with a high probability it may have slipped to 4.1%. Historically low layoffs and a recent jump in job openings have raised the prospect of labor market tightening. (Reuters)

Per Trading Economics, the market consensus is for 65,000 non-farm jobs to have been added in October up from 29,000 in September. The jobs data contained in ISM’s October PMI data and ADP’s October Employment Change report suggest we should see a month-over-month increase in the October Employment Report, but in addition to that initial tally there are two other items to pay attention to. First, job creation revisions for August and September.

Second, as the above points out, is how year-over-year wage gains stack up against inflation data. What that shows will help refine expectations for the holiday shopping season, and with that in mind…

3. Mattel on Thursday slashed its annual sales and profit forecasts ahead of the crucial holiday season, raising the stakes for new CEO Roger Lynch as he steers the Barbie maker through tepid demand and investor pressure. Toymakers are bracing for sluggish demand during the all-important holiday sales as rising raw material costs from the Iran war lift prices while US consumers rein in discretionary spending on higher energy costs and inflation. (Reuters)

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday spending during November and December to grow 4.2% year over year compared to the 3.1% year-over-year increase recorded for November to December 2025. Yes, as we all feel when we make a purchase, price tags have moved up compared to year-ago levels and that explains some of the NRF’s forecast. However, with wage gains falling below inflation consumers our view is consumers could become even more selective in their spending, leaving some downside risk for the NRF’s forecast.

Per Visa (V), nearly four in 10 shoppers qualify as holiday value seekers who shop promotions, redeem rewards, and look to private label and other value alternatives to make gift purchases feel worth the price.

4. The politician most associated with the implosion of the artificial-intelligence trade insists she is not resolutely against data-center construction — but just not now. “I’m not ruling data centers out. It’s not that I hate data centers. We just need to stop what we are doing until we have protections for Texans,” Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa said in an interview with CNN on Thursday… Hinojosa was also asked about her plan to block the sale of 1,300 acres of public land in South Texas, including Boca Chica State Park, to Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Tapper asked about the risk that Musk could move his companies out of Texas. “Selling our beach to Elon Musk is just something that is almost unimaginable; it’s unacceptable,” she said. She added that Texas could have a strong relationship with his companies — “but on our terms.” (MarketWatch)

Democrats plan on introducing bills aimed at shielding consumers from rising electricity costs tied to data centers, requiring independent testing of advanced AI systems and clarifying when AI companies can be held liable for harm caused by their products, they said. Any legislation would face steep odds while President Donald Trump remains in the White House, as he has repeatedly dismissed calls to write mandatory rules for AI technology. (Reuters)

We read Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa’s comments as ones that recognize the benefits of data center construction as well as their role in our increasingly connected society that shapes increasingly how we live and work. Think about all the things we do with our smartphones, PCs, tablets and other connected devices. But we also see Hinojosa’s comments as calling for a re-thinking on where data centers will be located.

To us that suggests something more akin to a timing issue centered on data center locations, but also a role for government in addressing the build out of what should be viewed as critical infrastructure. And we continue to think that states and municipalities will balance the impact of data center tax receipts against losing them to others domestically and internationally.

5. Potential investors in Anthropic’s highly anticipated IPO are raising doubts about whether the artificial intelligence startup can proceed with its planned roadshow next week in time for a November listing, four people familiar with investor discussions said. Investors are pushing for a more attractive valuation to commit to the offering, with some viewing the recently discussed $1.5 trillion valuation as being at the high end of expectations… (Reuters)

Canadian artificial-intelligence company Cohere’s timeline for going public remains uncertain despite surging revenue, its chief executive said, as the startup draws fresh backing from Nvidia and the Canadian government. (WSJ)

We would not be surprised to see the valuation and timing for Anthropic’s IPO change following the development of the last few days. But as we’ve said before, the ultimate pricing of the offering will hinge on what’s discussed during Anthropic’s roadshow, whenever that might be.

6. Shares of Axon Enterprise fell as the company announced a new investment in drone maker Skydio and cut its outlook, citing three deployments worth around $130 million that are no longer on track to occur this year… Axon said the updated guidance removes three Federal Dedrone deployments that were previously on pace for 2026, totaling around $130 million in revenue. If those deployments had remained on track, the company would have raised its guidance by some 200 basis points at the midpoint, it said. One $30 million deployment was expected to take place in the third quarter, with the other two totaling $100 million previously expected in the fourth quarter. (MarketWatch)

While Axon (AXON) isn’t the first company to feel the impact of contract slippage, that timing issue still stings especially given the market mood of the last few trading sessions. Despite the subsequent Q3 2026 miss relative to expectations and reduced outlook for the current quarter, Axon’s annual recurring revenue continues to climb quarter over quarter, hitting $1.75 billion, nearly half of the roughly $3.6 billion in revenue management now sees for 2026. Yes, the timing issue challenging, but in our view the quarter over quarter step up in future contracted bookings to $15.8 billion existing September versus $15.1 billion at the end of June is far more telling about where Axon is headed. We’ll have more to say in a standalone note later on Friday morning.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Employment Report (October), Used Car Prices (October), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (November Prelim.), Consumer Credit (September).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Bloomin’s Brands (BLMN), Charter (CHTR), Fluor (FLR), Oklo (OKLO), Starwood (STWD), Under Armour (UAA), Utz Brands (UTZ).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AXON.