Stock Market Today: November 11, 2026

Nov 11, 9:26 AM ESTBy Neil Sethi

Goldman Now Calls for Two More Hikes, Pushes First Cut to December 2027

After Tuesday’s hot October CPI report, Goldman Sachs US Economics Team (Mericle) has dropped its call that December would be the Fed’s last rate hike, adding another quarter-point hike in March 2027 and pushing its first rate cut back a quarter to December 2027. That would take the Fed funds rate to a peak of 4.25% to 4.5%, from 3.75% to 4% today. Goldman is far from alone in the call, but it’s widely followed, so I thought it worth a quick post.

What Changed

Goldman still expects a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s December 8–9 meeting. Goldman left its estimate of where rates settle once cuts begin unchanged at 3.25% to 3.5%, but it now sees the path down starting later, with cuts in December 2027 and then March, June and September 2028.

The trigger was a third straight month of hotter-than-expected inflation. Core CPI rose 0.30% in October, and Goldman said the upside came from several categories, not just higher oil prices passing through (more on the report here). It estimates leftover seasonal distortions from last year’s government shutdown added about 0.05 percentage point, and that the data point to a 0.35% rise in October core PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed targets.

Why March, Not January

Goldman said the hike could come as early as January, since the Fed doesn’t have to stick to hiking every other meeting. But it expects softer November and December readings, with core PCE rising a bit less than 0.2% a month, before what it calls the “January effect”: companies raising prices at the start of the year while their costs are still elevated. A firm January report, out before the March meeting, would make the hike “the path of least resistance,” even if the energy shock looks over by then.

Goldman also expects most Fed officials to pencil in a third hike in December’s dot plot. That would require only two more officials raising their forecasts, so the December dots are the first test of the call.

A Quarter Point, Not a Half

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech Tuesday morning that if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher, a half-point hike should be considered in December, and that hiking only a quarter point “would put our credibility at risk” (more here). Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also backed at least two more quarter-point hikes, possibly at a quicker pace than the Fed has moved this fall. Goldman still sees a quarter point, betting most voters would hesitate to jump to 50. After the CPI report, futures put about a 14% chance on a half-point move.

As I mentioned, Goldman is far from alone. Deutsche Bank already expects hikes in December, January and March, and Bank of America is looking for December and March. Citi for now just sees one more quarter point in December but says the risk of another or a half-point increase has risen, per Reuters.

Notably, though, even with the extra hike, Goldman is less hawkish than the market. After Tuesday’s report, futures priced about 63 basis points of hikes through December 2027, about two and a half. Goldman’s baseline has two more hikes and then a cut that December.

The Other Side

Goldman also notes oil futures have fallen sharply since last week’s elections and thinks most of the energy shock’s pass-through to consumer prices is already behind us. It remains confident inflation will be meaningfully lower by the end of 2027 as the effects of tariffs, energy and AI-related price pressures fade.

Goldman puts 50% odds on its baseline, 35% on four hikes and a higher end point, and 15% on a recession.

What to Watch

The December 8–9 meeting will be key. Assuming a 25-basis-point hike, the dot plot will show where the Fed’s collective head is at as to the expected path next year. November CPI comes out December 10, the day after the decision (although the Fed will likely have the result). After that, the January inflation data, out in February, are what Goldman is counting on to deliver the March hike. For investors, the takeaway is that the first rate cut keeps getting pushed out, the same repricing behind Tuesday’s jump in the two-year Treasury yield.

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Nov 11, 7:15 AM ESTBy Neil Sethi

Stocks and the VIX Fell Together Tuesday. Here’s What Usually Comes Next.

The S&P 500 fell 0.38% Tuesday as a hot CPI report and two hawkish Fed officials sent Treasury yields sharply higher (The Equity Bounce Runs Into a Hawkish Fed). But the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.4% to 19.45, extending Monday’s 22% drop (An Unprecedented Whipsaw in Investor ‘Fear’). VVIX, which tracks expected swings in the VIX itself, fell 1.8% to 96.63.

A “spot down, vol down” day isn’t unusual by itself. The VIX has fallen on about 23% of S&P 500 down days since 1990. At Tuesday’s size, though, it’s rare: the S&P 500 down at least 0.38% and the VIX down at least 2.4% has happened on just 100 of 2,514 comparable down days, or 4%. There were none in the past year, and Tuesday’s was the first since March 11, 2025.

It tends to show up when volatility is already high and starting to ease. Sixty-nine of those 100 days came with the VIX already at 19 or higher, and 11 came in the 2022 bear market alone.

Seven came within three sessions of a 30%-plus VIX jump, as Tuesday’s did after Thursday’s 70% spike:

June 25, 1990.
Sept. 18, 2001, the second session after markets reopened following 9/11.
Jan. 27, 2014, during an emerging-market selloff.
Aug. 25, 2015, after China’s devaluation.
June 27, 2016, after the Brexit vote.
Feb. 7, 2018, after “Volmageddon.”
Feb. 26, 2021, during a Treasury selloff.

The S&P 500 was higher a month later all seven times, by 4.2% on average, versus 0.8% for all days since 1990. Three months later it was up six of seven times, by 4.4% on average versus 2.4%. The exception was 1990, when Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August sent stocks sharply lower. The first week was more mixed, with gains in five of seven, and the VIX was lower a month later in six of seven.

What about VVIX? Its data only go back to 2007. On its own, a VVIX drop on an S&P 500 down day that size (102 cases) came before roughly normal returns. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% a month later on average and 2.4% three months later, versus 0.8% and 2.5% for all days since 2007, and it rose less often than usual.