We’re Playing the Long Game With This Portfolio Position

We are looking through the market’s reaction today on Marvell’s (MRVL) July 2026 quarterly earnings and guidance. As we explained this morning, the massive run in the shares leading into the print raised the bar for what the market was expecting even though the company once again lifted its outlook for calendar 2027.

What was not really discussed by Marvell was its expanded relationship with Google (GOOGL) other than management indicating that will become a significant contributor in calendar 2028. Management pointed to Marvell’s upcoming October 6 Investor Day, hinting it will have much more to say then on the Google relationship.

We suspect that event will be similar to Marvell’s 2025 Custom AI Investor Event in that it will include a multi-year forecast for the company’s custom silicon business as well as its overall revenue outlook. And with Nvidia (NVDA) saying it will be capacity constrained for some time to come, that reinforces the opportunity for Marvell, as does the growing focus on total cost when it comes to AI and AI infrastructure.

While MRVL shares are moving lower Friday, it’s fair to say that we are not alone in looking through the quarterly results and guidance considering the price target increases being slapped on the shares Friday morning. Our price target coming into the earnings report was $340, and we will maintain that at least until we hear from Marvell in early October. But Oppenheimer lifted its MRVL target to $325 from $300, while Needham and Rosenblatt Securities pointed to their $300 targets Friday morning.

Between now and the October event, there is a high probability MRVL shares trade sideways, but that will be determined by comments from other companies about AI and AI infrastructure during September investor conferences. Two such high-profile events will be the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference on September 8-11 and the Citi Global Tech Conference that spans September 8-9. Also on our radar screen include quarterly results from Dell (DELL) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and monthly revenue reports from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Foxconn.

We recently added to the Portfolio’s MRVL position at $176.83 and $205.66 in the second half of July. As we noted in our Nvidia earnings note, our overall chip position across NVDA, MRVL and Broadcom (AVGO) is around 10% of the Portfolio’s assets. That is likely to limit us in putting incremental fresh capital into MRVL shares, unless there’s an extreme pullback like we saw in very late July. Other catalysts that could prompt us to add to MRVL shares would be another high-profile custom AI silicon win.

For those whose MRVL position size is below the one we have in the Portfolio, we see nice support for the shares near $221 and $211. If Friday’s pullback delivers a positive test of that $221 level, that would potentially be a nice place to add. But a better one, from a risk-to-reward profile, would be after a positive test near $211.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AVGO, GOOGL, MRVL, and NVDA.