Signals From Our Investing Notebook
Another week has passed, and we’ve uncovered an ample number of confirming articles and other reports.
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* We’re opening our investing notebook to share some of the latest ripped-from-the-headlines signals and confirmation points for our portfolio holdings.
Aging Population
This demographic shift keeps us bullish on our positions in Elevance Health ELV and Labcorp LH.
“From now until 2050, the number of people 60 years or older will double to nearly 2.1 billion, making up 21% of the global population, according to projections from the World Health Organization.” Read more here
Artificial Intelligence, Digital Infrastructure & Connectivity
This signal explains the opportunity behind Qualcomm’s QCOM move into PCs with its Snapdragon chips.
“Manufacturers say these devices process data more swiftly than traditional PCs and can handle a greater volume of AI tasks directly on the device, including chatbots. That means they do not have to rely on cloud data centers that currently power most AI applications, including OpenAI's ChatGPT… Research firm Canalys estimates AI PC shipments will surpass 100 million in 2025, constituting 40% of all PCs shipped.” Read more here
CHIPs Act
Chip production and its reshoring are increasingly becoming an arms race for what we call the digital fabric of our connected lives. As it accelerates, we continue to see Applied Materials AMAT benefitting.
“China has set up the country’s largest-ever semiconductor investment fund to propel development of the domestic chip industry, the latest effort from Beijing to achieve self-sufficiency as the US seeks to restrict its growth. The third phase of National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund has amassed 344 billion yuan ($47.5 billion) from the central government and various state-owned banks and enterprises, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., according to Tianyancha, an online platform that aggregates official company registration information. The fund was incorporated on May 24.” Read more here
Consumer Inflation Fighters
More signs consumers are shifting their spending to non-discretionary items, which positions Costco COST and PepsiCo PEP well. The below also reinforces the addition of TreeHouse Foods THS to the Bullpen.
“In recent weeks, Target and Aldi have broadcast price cuts on thousands of items, while Walmart unveiled a new private label lineup of quality “chef-inspired food” mostly in the $5-and-under range. The shift comes as U.S. consumers have been signaling their discontent with more subdued spending — threatening retailers’ bottom lines. Read more here
“More pain could be on the way. In a recent report, analysts at S&P Global Ratings said factors including weak demand from low-income consumers is likely to hurt performance at dollar stores like Dollar General and Dollar Tree — though those remain investment-grade — at least through the remainder of the year. “This consumer is still spending, but they’re definitely being more discerning,” said Anthony Chukumba, an equity analyst at Loop Capital Markets.” Read more here
Cybersecurity
More support for why we continue to be owners of the First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF CIBR in the portfolio.
“For more than two weeks, thousands of medical personnel have turned to manual methods after a cyberattack on Ascension, one of the nation’s largest health systems with about 140 hospitals in 19 states and the District of Columbia.
The large-scale attack on May 8 was eerily reminiscent of the hack of Change Healthcare, a unit of UnitedHealth Group that manages the nation’s largest health care payment system. The assault shut down Change’s digital billing and payment routes, leaving hospitals, doctors and pharmacists without ways to communicate with health insurers for weeks. Patients were unable to fill prescriptions, and providers could not get paid for care.” Read more here
“The FBI said it has dismantled what is likely the world’s largest botnet — an army of 19 million infected computers — that was leased to hackers for cybercrimes. The botnet, which was spread across more than 190 countries, enabled financial fraud, identity theft and access to child exploitation materials around the world…” Read more here
“Over 60% of vulnerabilities discovered in network and security appliances in 2023 were exploited as zero days, according to a new Rapid7 report. This follows a broader trend of attackers being adept at exploiting vulnerabilities before a patch has been released. The researchers found that more mass compromise events arose from zero-day vulnerabilities than from n-day vulnerabilities in 2023 (53% vs 47%).” Read more here
Digital Infrastructure
These signals put a face on the ramping spending for data centers from the likes of Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta META, and others, and support the vibrant demand outlook for Nvidia NVDA and Marvell MRVL.
“Raxio Group, a data-center company backed by global investor Meridiam Infrastructure Partners SAS and US private equity firm Roha Group, is opening its first facility in Mozambique as part of its $290 million investment strategy in Africa… Tech giants such as US-based Microsoft Corp. and China’s Huawei Technologies Co. have been investing in data centers on the continent in recent years as demand for better connectivity, artificial intelligence capability and storage increases.” Read more here
“Google committed to making $2 billion in investments in Malaysia, including developing its first data center and a cloud facility. The pledge marks Google’s largest planned investment in the Southeast Asian nation…” Read more here
“Former aircraft hangers at Blackpool Airport are set to be converted into a high-performance data center campus in Blackpool, the UK. According to a report from The Business Desk, civic leaders in Blackpool are now looking for data center operators to run the project - named Silicon Sands. The first data center is set to begin construction next year on a cleared area of land. Work is also progressing to relocate and rebuild old hangers closer to the main runway.” Read more here
Energy Demand
Another reminder about the looming power crunch, and the need for utilities to ramp capacity to meet growing demands from data centers, EV charging, and other drivers.
“The White House on Wednesday plans to announce new measures to support the development of new U.S. nuclear power plants, a large potential source of carbon-free electricity the government says is needed to combat climate change. The suite of actions, which weren't previously reported, are aimed at helping the nuclear power industry combat rising security costs and competition from cheaper plants powered by natural gas, wind and solar.” Read more here
“Singapore aims to increase the amount of power it allocates for data centers by as much as 35%, according to Janil Puthucheary, senior minister of state at the Ministry of Communications and Information. The city-state will free up about 300 megawatts of capacity in the short term via resource allocation and efficiency enhancements, with possibly another 200 megawatts to come through partnerships with clean energy providers…” Read more here
EV Transition
These signals show the competitive landscape is tightening for EVs as OEMs look to bring more affordable models to market in a bid to stoke consumer adoption. Margins will be a must watch item, but in the US we still have the chicken and the egg problem with sufficient EV charging.
“Cheap electric vehicles from China are already pushing into Europe, undercutting one of the region’s biggest industries. BYD Co., which overtook Tesla Inc. late last year as the biggest global EV maker, is about to raise the stakes. The Chinese manufacturer announced plans last month to bring its Seagull hatchback to Europe next year.” Read more here
“Volkswagen is aiming for its new low-cost electric vehicles to debut in 2027. The new affordable VW EVs are expected to be priced around $21,800 (20,000 euros). Read more here
“Another low-cost electric vehicle is headed to the US. According to Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares, Jeep plans to launch a $25,000 EV in the US “very soon.” Read more here
“Starting this coming August, Silicon Valley startup Zūm will provide 74 electric buses to the Oakland school district, making it the first all-electric bus fleet serving a major US school district. These buses will also supply 2.1 gigawatt-hours of electricity to the Bay Area power grid, which is enough energy for 300 to 400 homes.” Read more here
Guilty Pleasure
An interesting inflection point considering at last count, recreational cannabis is legal in 24 states.
“For the first time on record, cannabis has outpaced alcohol as the daily drug of choice for Americans. In 2022 there were 17.7 million people who reported using cannabis either every day or nearly every day, compared with 14.7 million who reported using alcohol with the same frequency, according to a study, published on Wednesday in the journal Addiction that analyzed data from the U.S. National Survey on Drug Use and Health.” Read more here
Luxury Buying Boom
An unexpected point of support for our SPDR Gold GLD shares.
“Last year, China's demand for gold jewelry rose 10% from 2022 to 630 tons acquired, making the country the world's largest buyer of the commodity, according to the World Gold Council. China's demand for gold jewelry softened in the first quarter of this year because of the surge in gold prices but still held up well, according to the council… Chinese consumers are still expected to retain their appetite for gold.” Read more here
