Unemployment Claims Pinned Near Historic Lows

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19th: 197,000 (estimate 200,000; previous 196,000; revised previous 198,000)
• Continuing claims for the week ending September 12th: 1,719,000 (estimate 1,740,000; previous 1,730,000; revised previous 1,717,000).

After bottoming at 189,000 nine weeks ago — the lowest reading since 1969 — initial jobless claims have not moved much, in the week through September 19th edging down 1,000 to 197,000 (from a revised 198,000 the prior week). It marks only the eighth time claims have come in below 200,000 since 1969 (all post-pandemic), leaving them near cycle lows and well within the relatively narrow range that has held since November 2021.

The four-week average fell 1,750 to 202,250 (roughly 34,500 lower year-over-year), a six-week low.

Continuing claims (seasonally adjusted) in the week through September 12th (one week lagged) edged up 2,000 to 1,719,000, though that followed a sizable 13,000 downward revision to the prior week which took it to 1,717,000 — the lowest since May 2023. It remains at the very bottom of the roughly 1.72 million to 2.0 million range that has held since mid-2023 — historically low, though not quite as low as initial claims.

The four-week average of continuing claims fell 13,000 to 1,744,000, the lowest since June 3, 2023, and remains lower year-over-year for a 33rd straight week (down 182,250) — the largest such gap since December 2022 — further evidencing that layoffs have ground to a halt.

The 20-year pre-pandemic average for initial claims is 345,000 and continuing claims roughly 2.9 million.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor