From Peter Boockvar:

“I want succinct” said Kevin Warsh implicitly with easily the shortest FOMC statement I can ever remember. After saying that rates will remain unchanged today and they will maintain “ample reserves in the banking system” they went straight to the following commentary on the economy and inflation and that was it.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

The End, I’ll add.

But we still have those darn dots and only one of 18 dots (likely Michelle Bowman) expect a rate cut this year with 8 seeing no change and the balance of 9 forecasting a rate increase of either one (3 dots), two (5 dots) and three (1 dot) and that explains why the 2 yr yield jumped to 4.14% from 4.06% right before. The 10 yr yield is higher by 3 bps to 4.46% and the 30 yr yield is up just 1 bp to 4.93%. So further flattening in the yield curve.

From the current effective fed funds rate of 3.63%, the year end 2026 median dot is now 3.8% from 3.6% and comes with a notable rise in their inflation forecasts. Headline PCE they now expect to end the year at 3.6% from 2.7% at the March projection. The core rate is now forecasted to be 3.3% which compares with 2.7% previously. Little changed is their unemployment rate estimate to 4.3% from 4.4% and a tweak lower in their 2026 GDP estimate to 2.2% from 2.4%.

Kevin Warsh, here now is the mic.

Position: None

My only long buys today have been across-the-board on cannabis.

Position: Long cannabis

With S&P cash down by over -50 handles I have covered my index shorts:

* SPY $744.95

* QQQ $726.18

I plan to reshort any rally.

From earlier today:

Early Wednesday Morning Trading (4:05 AM)

I am back adding to index shorts with S&P futures +20 handles and Nasdaq futures +260 handles:

* SPY $752.33

* QQQ $736.17

Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)

BY Doug Kass · Jun 17, 2026, 5:44 AM EDT

Position: None

From the Comments Section:

Dougie Kass

On the issue of short term trading…

The other point I want to share is that our subs come in all stripes, temperments and objectives. No individual sub is alike as timeframes and risk profiles and appetites are all different.

Contributors, like myself, serve all of our subs.

To state the obvious, it is preferable to call the market right. I have not over the last three years – in which a buy and hold strategy was ideal (in hindsight) and preferable, incurring no tax liability.

That is elementary and tautological.

So being wrong I have tried (and succeeded) in taking a trading approach to engineer profits while being wrong on market direction. 

(I have taken out some of my comments that relate to blocking some subs that I have determined to be rude and that I don’t want to interface with).

We do have many subs that are buy and hold oriented- but based on my interaction, that is likely for only a portion of their portfolios. It seems they nearly all trade outside of their long term investments. 

Among the things they miss is that there are a large amount of subs who have non taxable accounts (IRA, pension plans,etc.) and there are foundations, etc. that are not directed by tax consequences. Many of us manage other people’s money. In my hedge fund, the majority of my investors are not taxable. Those subs who are critical fail to understand this. Additionally there are tax avoidance strategies that can offset short term gains.

As I stated in today’s comments (and all week), there are a number of subs who are griping and growing impatient with cannabis stocks’ underperformance. They are unwilling to hold (and accumulate) weak sectors, yet seem to have long term horizons.

So, everyone is different.

We also have a large portion of our sub base that are trading oriented.  And if we look at the proliferation of leveraged ETFs and ODTE options that have an investment timeframe of less than 24 hours – that is a large and rapidly growing population of general interest by parties in short term trading. 

Finally, as I have stated repeatedly in the past I created a Best Ideas List that has had longs (and shorts) on for many years.  I have said repeatedly that if you dont agree with my negative views onthe market it is a good menu to select longer term investments.

Position: None

From Peter Boockvar:

Pending home sales lift higher

Pending home sales in May saw an encouraging 3.8% m/o/m jump in the key spring selling season, well above the estimate of up .9% and only partly offset by a downward revision of 110 bps to April which saw a .3% rise.

The NAR said, ““A late spring buyer rush—even with mortgage rates not budging—is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers’ acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal. The inventory-constrained Northeast region, which has seen faster home price growth but slower home sales for several months, is now showing more buyer contract signings. More supply is needed to help moderate home price growth.”

With the perspective that the pace of existing home sales is still rather soft, see the chart below, it was nice to see a lift even without any help from mortgage rates. We of course now watch for sustainability in the months and quarters to come.

Pending Home Sales index

Positions: None.

– NYSE volume 23% below its one-month average;  
– Nasdaq volume 4% below its one-month average; 
– VIX index: up 1.28% to 16.62

Positions: None.

JavaJoe

7m ago

Have you basically become a day trader now? It’s an honest question. 

Dougie Kass

just now

absolutely not

 when i am wrong as rain on the market, i trade much more actively to hit the cash register – since i dont want to have much long exposure  — i typically do this with the indices… so you see all my index trades

i always trade around longs and shorts – always

you see my day/trade/transactional stuff because, well because i am transparent – holds are holds , trades you see as it is transactional

on the short side (as i have been bearish) i have held more than 15 positions for years

i would much prefer catching a primary trend (down or up) and just hold… so much easier.

Positions: None

From Peter Boockvar:

Retail sales better than expected

Core retail sales in May rose .7% m/o/m after a .5% increase in April and that was 3 tenths above the estimate. Above this line, sales for autos/parts were up by 1.2% m/o/m after dropping by .9% in the month before. They are up 1.8% y/o/y. Building material sales were flat and up by 1.8% y/o/y. As to be expected, gasoline station sales increased by 3.4% m/o/m and 25% y/o/y with price being the main reason.

Sales were up in furniture, clothing, sporting goods, online retail, general merchandise (like department stores) and in the miscellaneous category which includes dollar stores, convenience stores, pet, etc…

On the downside, sales fell for electronics after strength in the prior months and still up 5.9% y/o/y. Sales dropped by one tenth at eating/drinking establishments but after a .9% rise in April and sales here were up 2.4% y/o/y.

Bottom line, a lot coursing thru this data. We have tax refunds on one hand but we also have inflation, mostly at the gas pump on the other and a reminder too that this data is in nominal terms. Wages are still growing but now less than inflation and in part why the savings rate keeps dropping. And we wonder how much of the lift in sales was a consumer response to buy things ahead of expected price increases.

While not apples to apples, headline retail sales were up 6.9% y/o/y (after a 4.8% increase in April) vs the May CPI rise of 4.2% (vs 3.8% in April).

Treasury yields didn’t move much in response with the 2 yr at 4.06%, the 10 yr at 4.43% and the 30 yr at 4.93%.

Positions: None.

Chart from 9:52 a.m. ET.

Positions: None.

* And another positive for the overall cannabis picture…

Virginia Governor And Lawmakers Unveil Newly Negotiated Bill To Legalize Marijuana Sales That’s Expected To Pass This Month – Marijuana Moment

That the market is ignoring the mounting positives for weed has provided me with what I think is a superb opportunity to increase my cannabis exposure.

Position: Long Cannabis

From Peter Boockvar:

Meet the new boss, different than the old boss/Oil/PLAY & LZB/Overseas

I really look forward to hearing from Kevin Warsh today. I think he’s going to be a refreshing rethink to what has been a standard, mostly Keynesian approach for years to how they model the economic data (mostly focusing on the demand side), how they use monetary policy (aggressively over the past 40 years and with forward guidance as a tool) and what will become of both the balance sheet and future use of QE (bloated and too big a footprint in markets).

I think for now with respect to rates and with an effective fed funds rate currently at 3.63%, around a zero real rate and if one uses headline inflation, its below zero, Warsh & Co should just sit tight and wait to see where prices settle out at, particularly oil prices, as supply chains normalize with the Strait reopening because until then they will have incomplete information.

When thinking about oil prices from here and where they eventually stabilize at, I want to highlight again something I talked about in January that is a big picture support, I believe, for crude oil prices. And that is a plateauing of US oil production. It’s not because drillers don’t want to drill, it’s instead the reality of geology in that many of the US shale basins are now seeing a flattening to lower production rate and the rate of growth out of the Permian in particular is slowing as well.

I include two charts, one over the past year of US oil production and one stretching 15 years that reflects both the dramatic increase in production that the technological wonder of shale drilling brought and took the US to the number one in the world spot but also relative to the slowdown in production seen over the past 8 months.

US Oil Production over past year at 13.8mm barrels per day

US Oil Production over past 15 years, from about 5.5mm per day to almost 14mm

Dave & Buster’s reported Monday after the close and its stock fell 5% Monday even with lower oil prices and another 6% Tuesday in response to the earnings. They said this of note:

“We started the quarter well in February. The spring calendar shift between March and April played out largely as expected. But the macro backdrop, elevated gas prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and meaningful softness in consumer sentiment, they all were a real headwind in April.”

They ended the quarter with comps down 5.4% y/o/y. In Q2 to date, they are trending a bit better, down 4% so far.

“Consistent with what we have seen here recently, certainly that lower end consumer is where we’ve seen most of that pressure. The higher end middle consumer is consistently trading but we’re seeing more of that pressure on the low end and that’s part of really what we’ve been trying to focus on with our value offers.”

La-Z-Boy is jumping pre market as while sales were about as expected, profits were much better than estimated. In their release they said this of note:

“Written same store sales decreased 2%, a sequential improvement, as lower traffic was partially offset by higher conversion rates, average ticket, and design sales. During the quarter, same store sales trends were strongest in April with positive comps.” They referred to “an industry that remains soft” and “While we continue to have a measured view of the external environment, we expect to continue to outperform the industry.”

With the average 30 yr mortgage rate holding at 6.60%, purchase applications fell 3.4% w/o/w after rising last week by 7.3% vs the previous 3 weeks of declines. Refi’s were down by 4.5% after last week’s pop that also followed declines in the previous few weeks.

Shifting gears overseas. The Swedish Riksbank decided to not follow the ECB with a rate hike and they held their policy rate at 1.75% as expected. That said, they are leaning to a hike and said “The Executive Board assesses that it is well balanced to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% now, but the probability that the rate will be raised later this year has increased in relation to the assessment in March.” The Swedish krona is little changed in response.

Ahead of the BoE meeting tomorrow where no change with its base rate of 3.75% is expected, the UK May CPI rose 2.8% y/o/y, 2 tenths below expectations and the same pace seen in April. The ONS said lower food prices kept a lid on price gains but as energy bills reset in coming months, that will be a headline figure offset from here. The core rate was higher by 2.6% y/o/y vs 2.5% in April and one tenth below the estimate. Services inflation remains the problem, rising by 3.7% y/o/y vs 3.2% in the month before.

I think the BoE is in wait and see mode too. Gilt yields are lower by 5-6 bps in reaction to the below estimate print. The 10 yr inflation breakeven is down by 3.6 bps to 3.18%, the lowest since early March.

UK Core CPI y/o/y

Positions: None.

We remain short Spacey.

Positions: Short SPCX

I added to my Index shorts:

* SPY (SPY) $751.49
* QQQ (QQQ) $734.53

Positions: Short SPY M QQQ M

Glass House Brands announces its intention to gain a NYSE uplisting (GLASF)

Position: Long GLASF S

Upside:

-QURE +82% (FDA says 3-year Phase I/II AMT-130 data can support BLA for accelerated approval in Huntington’s disease)

-FTHM +63% (to be acquired by Bed Bath & Beyond in all-stock deal valued at about $53.38M)

-LZB +18% (earnings, guidance)

-AEHR +9.7% (receives follow-on order for FOX-XP wafer-level burn-in system)

-ASTS +5.5% (launches BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 satellites)

-GNK +5.5% (Diana Shipping raises Genco offer 10% to $27.34/share)

-INTC +3.7% (reportedly as company begins production of its most advanced chip (18A-P) it inches closer to possible Apple deal)

-AMD +3.0% (sector strength)

-FIG +2.9% (CitiGroup Initiates FIG with Buy, price target: $36)

-PGR +2.6% (reports May net premiums written)

-KMX +2.3% (earnings, color)

-SPCX +2.0% (momentum)

-ALOT n/a (Trading halted; to be acquired by Arcline for $29.00/shr cash, $272M enterprise value)

Downside:

-BBBY -9.2% (FTHM to be acquired by Bed Bath & Beyond in all-stock deal valued at about $53.38M)

-ORA -6.0% (Bernstein initiated Underperform, Price target $115)

-CME -3.9% (names Lynne Fitzpatrick as new CEO)

-DUOT -2.9% (files to sell 2M common shares and pre-funded warrants for up to 3,800,000 shares)

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Treasury Auctions:

11:30 a.m.: Treasury Hosts a $69B 17-Week Bill Auction

Economic Calendar:

Positions: None.

Favorite Long Verano Holdings: (VRNOD) (5-1 estimated reward vs. risk)

Favorite Short Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF: (GRNY) (21/2-1 estimated reward vs. risk)

Positions: Long VRNOD S; Short GRNY M

Cal Naughton, Jr.: Shake and bake!

Ricky Bobby: What does that do? Does that blow your mind? That just happened!

–  Talladega Nights: Shake and bake HD CLIP

I repurchased Amazon (AMZN) at about $236.57 late last week.

I am taking some of the long off at $246.15 in premarket trading now.

This is my fourth or fifth successful positioning in Bezos’ company in the last 12-18 months. 

The cumulative gains in trading far exceed the overall performance were I to have bought and hold over the last year.

Shake and Bake.

It rhymes.

They are both verbs...

Position: AMZN VS

Most technicians see the same things.

Few technicians think outside the box like TheStreet Pro’s Divine Ms M.

Her daily missives are invaluable to me.

Here is an important excerpt from Helene’s column this morning “People Are Worried About the Sox: The Transports Might Be The Bigger Worry“

I realize everyone is going to fuss over the SOX, as they ought to. I mean, there is a potential double top there, but I tend to do my best to keep silent when there is so much chatter, and something is so obvious. In other words, I wouldn’t be shocked if the SOX fell more or if it rallied. Just about a week ago, I said I was now neutral on Intel, and I still am. I would point out that Intel did not make a higher high on Monday. If it can’t rally from this blue line, then I’d say that 100 level is in play.

But as is typical of me, I tend to go where the masses are not chattering. And right now, that is the Transports. Oil has collapsed in the last two days, and the Transports are down both days. I think they are vulnerable.

Position: None

Buckle up:

Position: Short SPCX (VS)

* Increasingly market participants know less and less about value and more and more about price…

Half of the bullish cabal ignores valuation in the belief that S&P EPS will grow into an all-time high in the measurement of an assortment of traditional valuation metrics, which include cash flow-to-enterprise value, the price earnings/sales/book value ratios, return on equity, the Buffett Ratio (total market cap to GDP), the CAPE Ratio, etc. 

The other half just cares about price momentum.

Position: Short SPY (M)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains overbought at 1.64% vs. 1.59%.

Position: Short SPY (M) 

I am back adding to index shorts with S&P futures +20 handles and Nasdaq futures +260 handles:

* SPY $752.33

* QQQ $736.17

Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)