“Just one last thing.”

– Lt. Columbo

I am taking in my early 345AM Index shorts – sticking with the rest.

Cover prices:   SPY  $772.57 and QQQ $729.54

These short term gains, add up…

From earlier in the day:

Checking In on the Oscillator and Premarket Trading

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has shifted to a greater overbought, at 3.23% vs 2.73%.

Into the overbought I expanded my short index book (at 3:45 AM):

* SPY  $777.57

* QQQ $735.09

Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (S)

BY Doug Kass · Aug 17, 2026, 8:32 AM EDT

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 5% below its one-month average
– NASDAQ volume 11% below its one-month average
– VIX index: up 6.53% to 15.18

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

I have moved to large GRNY short.

Position: Short GRNY (L)

Another low in bond prices and high in bond yields for the day.

Ignore this at your own peril.

An updated market outlook is on tap for tomorrow.

Position: None

I have added to my GRNY at $28.09 and JOET at $47.43 shorts.

I have been adding daily to these ETFs.

Position: Short GRNY (M), JOET (S)

“Those people can be so touchy… “

 – Seinfeld, The Anti Dentite  The Best of Kramer – The Anti Dentite – YouTube

I am back shorting the Russell Index (IWM) at $304.13.

Yada Yada Yada.

Position: Short IWM (S)

– NYSE volume 15% below its one-month average;  
– Nasdaq volume 19% below its one-month average;  
– VIX index: up 5.05% to 14.97

Positions: None.

 Adding to PEP (PEP) at $138.03.

Positions: Long PEP M

Jeez Louise …  now Alphabet (GOOGL) needs to sell debt in Australia to fund the AI spend?

This could imply that Alphabet is worried the U.S. debt markets inability to supply what they need at the price they want. 

It is all so odd. On top of the fact that Alphabet and the rest of the hyperscalers need so much money to fund the capital spending frenzy we have this:

With financing needs increasing, technology companies are going further afield to access funds. Alphabet has mandated investment banks to work on an Australian dollar bond issue. It is considering 3,5, 10, and 20 year bonds although the size has not yet been announced. Alphabet raised USD25bn in dollar bonds earlier in August following an almost USD85bn equity capital raising in June. “Kangaroo” bond sales from foreign issuers in Australian dollars are already at a record high of about AUD60bn so far this year, up roughly 40% from 2025 levels.

 Positions: None.

The health issues (family/friends) kept on coming – with another situation coming up. 

Without getting into details I will be posting less frequently today and my columns will be shorter than normal.

Positions: None

Upside

CRGO +17.5% (Q2 revenue beat expectations and loss narrowed; on track toward breakeven)

OABI +17.5% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; notable premarket move on solid volume)

TRU +17.0% (major premarket gain after fresh positive investor catalyst; among the strongest liquid movers before the open)

OCUL +13.0% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; notable premarket move)

HIVE +12.5% (Q1 revenue jumped ~74% with contracted GPU cloud ARR reaching approximately $110M)

ARGX +11.5% (Phase 3 ALKIVIA met primary endpoint with clinically meaningful TIS improvement in autoimmune myositis)

ALAB +5.5%, AMD +2.5%, MRVL +3.0% (AI-semiconductor names rise as investors extend optimism around AI infrastructure demand)

SNDK +4.5%, MU +3.0%, WDC +3.5%, STX +2.5% (memory/storage names rise on AI demand and tight supply dynamics)

BABA +2.5% (rises after strategic portfolio shift and AI-focused repositioning)

Downside

EYPT –65.0% (Phase 3 LUGANO primary endpoint missed, confounded by asymmetric cohort with vision loss unrelated to wet AMD)

APUS –27.0% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; large premarket move)

FUFU –18.0% (Q2 results disappointed)

BRFH –15.5% (Q2 results and FY guidance cut as production inefficiencies weighed more than expected)

SNAP –10.0% (legal pressure after 9th Circuit denial of Section 230 immunity in social-media addiction cases)

ALH –7.5% (sharp premarket decline among notable early losers)

LHX –5.0% (CEO and chairman departure following conduct-related issues)

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

A senior Iranian official in Iran has stated that there has been a shift in policy from defensive to “fully offensive.”

As a result, all Iranian entities will be prepared to escalate tensions in Hormuz Strait and the region if diplomacy fails. 

Positions: None. 

Bond prices are already making a multi-month low (and bond yields are making a multi-month high).

I just don’t think equities can be indifferent to fixed income – and I am raising my net short exposure to the highest level in well over a year. 

Positions: Short SPY M QQQ S

TREASURY ACTIONS:

11:00 AM: Treasury buyback announcement (liq support)

11:30 AM: Treasury hosts a $92B 3 and $79B 6-Month Bill Auction

 4:00PM: Total NetTIC Flows; Net Long-Term TIC Flows (June)

FED EVENTS: 

11:00AM: FOMC Closed Board Meeting: Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to becharged by the Federal Reserve Banks

ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK:

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has shifted to a greater overbought, at 3.23% vs 2.73%.

Into the overbought I expanded my short index book (at 3:45 AM):

* SPY  $777.57

* QQQ $735.09

Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (S)