The major domestic equity indices closed flat to slightly lower on Thursday after having tested much lower levels earlier. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed very close to flat on the day. It appears that Washington and Tehran are exploring what would be a phased arrangement that would restore the ability of commercial traffic to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

Four of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed higher, with Communication Services (XLC) atop the performance tables. The Materials (XLB) were the big losers. Everpure (P) was the top-performing stock in the S&P 500, while Gen Digital (GEN) was the worst.   

Though stocks rallied well off of their lows, crude oil did not rally and Treasury debt securities sold off yet again. The U.S. 10-year Note paid 5.19% by day’s end, up 8 basis points. 

The big news of the day for single stocks was probably made by Oracle (ORCL). The stock fell 3.5% after Bloomberg News reported that the company was citing force majeure in order to protect itself from a data center project being built in New Mexico if it is delayed.

Have a good night gang. Dougie, I believe, will be out again tomorrow, but someone else is destined to be here with you as I cannot work through the close tomorrow.

Get some rest, gang and God bless. Zero dark-thirty comes early.  

Position: None

Position: None

Question:

Pete Rose is Major League Baseball’s post-integration (since 1947) leader in plate appearances. Rose stepped up to the plate 15,890 times between 1963 and 1986 for the Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies and Montreal Expos. Only four other hitters have stepped to plate 13,000 times or more since 1947. Who are they? 

Answers:

1) Pete Rose (CIN, PHA, MTL) 1963-1986 15,890 PA.

2) Carl Yastrzemski (BOS) 1961-1983  13,992 PA.

3) Henry Aaron (Braves, MIL) 13,941 PA

4) Rickey Henderson (OAK, NYY, LAA, BOS, LAD, NYM, SDP, SEA, TOR) 13,346 PA.

5) Albert Pujols (STL, LAA, LAD) 13,041 PA

Pete Rose is Major League Baseball’s post-integration (since 1947) leader in plate appearances. Rose stepped up to the plate 15,890 times between 1963 and 1986 for the Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies and Montreal Expos.

Only four other hitters have stepped to plate 13,000 times or more since 1947. Who are they? 

I have a 2 p.m. ET appointment for some physical therapy for a degenerative problem that I have in my lower back. I will be away from the Diary for a little over an hour from that time.

No reason for radio silence. You have each other and on top of that, I have left you a baseball trivia question.

Position: None 

Check this out.

Most readers probably already know that I have been very positive on both Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC). AMD literally for years and INTC for this year at least. Most readers likely also know that I remain long Nvidia (NVDA), but don’t write on it very often. Looking at The Sarge-folio, AMD is a top-five name in terms of weighting, INTC is a top-10 name and NVDA is a top-15 name. That’s the way that I have had them weighted for some time now. 

Nvidia

NVDA continues to trade within my Pitchfork model. This morning, the stock found support at its 21-day EMA as, I think, swing traders came to the rescue. Still, this is a dangerous spot as swing trades are notoriously fickle and if that line fails, how far away can a test of the 50-day SMA be? I still have a $290 target on NVDA, but I am starting to lose confidence in this one. 

AMD

It looks to me like AMD may be starting to consolidate, which is healthy. The recent move was nearly parabolic in nature and needs to be digested. I am very comfortable with my current $790 price target. 

Intel

INTC also seems to be setting up for some consolidation, which would be welcome. Here, too, the chart is very positive. My $178 target may be a little aggressive, but this stock still may be underrated. Lip-Bu-Tan is the best CEO this company has had in many, many years. 

Position: Long AMD, INTC and NVDA equity. 

Darden Restaurants Defends One of the Worst Balance Sheets I’ve Ever Seen

Position: None

A couple of weeks ago, I showed readers this daily chart of CrowdStrike (CRWD). We discussed the possibility that the stock could break out of this Rising Wedge to the upside. Rising Wedges, for the uninitiated, are patterns of bearish reversal.

For a little background, CRWD is the fourth heaviest weighted position in the Sarge-folio and when stocks break out of a technical setup in the “wrong” direction, the move can be quite explosive. Obviously, I was excited about this one. I increased my price target to $295 that day. 

Looking at our indicators, Relative Strength is close to reaching into a technically overbought state, but is not quite there yet. Below the chart, the daily MACD is set up about as bullish as it can be.

The 12-day EMA is running well above the 26-day EMA with both still rising. In addition, the histogram of the 9-day EMA is well into positive territory.

Position: Long CRWD equity 

Ondas Makes Three Key Acquisitions. Now I’m Planning to Buy More

Positions: Long ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PTON, RKLB, SOFI, SWBI, VELO equity. Short SOFI calls.

From TipRanks..

SpaceX Stock Plunges 4% Before Major Starship Flight as President Files to Sell $52M in Shares – TipRanks.com

Positions: None

Cintas (CTAS) price target raised to $222 from $214 at Baird

Okta (OKTA) price target raised to $215 from $180 at BarclaysPaychex price target lowered to $113 from $118 at BMO CapitalMcDonald’s price target lowered to $310 from $335 at BMO CapitalNebius upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas

Okta price target raised to $220 from $200 at BofA

McDonald’s (MCD) price target lowered to $295 from $350 at BTIGWorthington price target raised to $75 from $67 at CanaccordMeta Platforms price target raised to $885 from $770 at Citizens

Okta price target raised to $235 from $190 at DA DavidsonOkta price target raised to $240 from $185 at Evercore ISIMcDonald’s price target lowered to $300 from $320 at Evercore ISILowe’s downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gordon HaskettOkta price target raised to $227 from $188 at GuggenheimDollar General upgraded to Buy at HSBC on recovery progressOkta price target raised to $240 from $200 at Jefferies

Meta Platforms (META) price target raised to $920 from $820 at JPMorgan

Carnival (CCL) price target lowered to $39 from $43 at JPMorganMcDonald’s price target lowered to $260 from $280 at JPMorganTanger downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan

CoreWeave (CRWV) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorganOkta price target raised to $227 from $190 at Oppenheimer

Meta Platforms price target raised to $860 from $650 at Raymond James

Positions: None

S&P Futures: -33 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: -261 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 5.118%

US Two-Year Note: 4.868%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 4.133%

WTI Crude: $93.70

Gold: -0.35%

Silver: -1.4%

Bitcoin: -1.01%

US Dollar Index: +0.15%

Positions: Long physical gold & silver

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Anatomy of a Bond Market Selloff

Positions: Long LMT, SNDK equity.

S&P Futures: -40 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: -280 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 5.13%

US Two-Year Note: 4.881%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 4.133%

WTI Crude: $93.08

Gold: -0.53%

Silver: -1.12%

Bitcoin: -1.16%

US Dollar Index: +0.15%

Positions: Long physical gold & silver

Breaking…

10-year Treasury yield continues to rise from 19-year high

Position: None

Our dear friend, Dougie will be off today and tomorrow. In his stead, I, Sarge, will be your backup quarterback today. I will hopefully remind you more of Earl Morrall or Jeff Rutledge than Jameis Winston. In reality, I actually do think that Winston will prove himself up to the task at hand, but Monday night was rough. 

OK, you and I must contend with an ugly selloff across the bond market that is impacting stocks as oil prices have started moving higher again. I covered all of that in this morning’s Market Recon column, which you’ll have shortly. More importantly, as Presidents Trump and Xi prepare to meet in DC, Iran does not appear to be any more compliant than the last time we checked in. Let us proceed.

Let’s do something physical to get the blood moving. If you’re up to push-ups and crunches, by all means, have at it. For the rest of you, walking the dog might be a lot. You do you. Then, we’ll meet back here with that second or third cup of coffee and we’ll get after it. This money isn’t going to make itself.

Positions: None