– NYSE volume 7% above its one-month average; 
– Nasdaq volume 10% above its one-month average;  
– VIX index:  down 7.81% to 16.30

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

Pull forward of orders now over?/Builder sentiment

Now we watch to see the extent to which orders were pulled forward over the past few months. Ahead of this but reflecting that some of this has already taken place, the June NY manufacturing index fell to 5.7 from 19.6. Specifically, new orders fell to 3.5 from 22.7 in May and 19.3 in April while inventories dropped to zero from 9.7 in May and 5.1 in April. Backlogs though were little changed m/o/m at 5.0.

Delivery Times gave back the May jump but remained elevated at 11.9. Prices paid stayed high but a bit less so at 61, down 1.6 pts. Prices received at 31.4 was also little changed m/o/m but 7.6 pts above its 6 month average. Employment stayed above zero at 9.6 but the workweek fell, though was above zero.

The six month business outlook at 30.1 was down 3.4 pts m/o/m and about where the half year average is. Of note, the six month expectation for price received rose 8 pts to the highest since April 2022. The six month outlook for prices paid slipped by 2.7 pts to 59.4 but that is still above its half year average. Capital spending plans dropped by 4.6 pts to 10.9, a 5 month low.

Bottom line, as stated, we now get to see how much of the recent lift in manufacturing was organic end demand and how much of it was the front loading of orders ahead of expected price increases and/or supply challenges. On the cost side, price pressures are clear on the producer side that will hopefully now get some relief but unless things go back to the cost structure of pre March, companies will still do what they can to recapture lost profit margins. That will be done either thru further productivity gains and/or cost cuts and/or less hiring and/or price increases.

NY Mfr’g

Expectations for Prices Received

The June NAHB home builder sentiment index fell to 35 from 37 and vs the estimate of no change and thus remaining well below the breakeven of 50. The Present situation fell 2 pts to 38 after rising by 3 pts last month. The Future outlook was unchanged at 45. Prospective Buyers Traffic remained depressed at 25.

The NAHB talked about what builders are doing to drive sales, “The latest HMI survey also revealed that 35% of builders cut prices in June, up from 32% in May. The average price reduction was 6% in June, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 62% in June, up slightly from 61% in May, and marking the 15th consecutive month this share has reached 60% or higher.”

They also blamed government policy that is limiting the ability to deliver supply. “Costly and inefficient regulatory policy is clearly impeding the ability of builders to increase the housing supply. According to a new NAHB study, government regulation, taxes, fees and other costs add more than 26% to the price of an average single-family home. Easing permitting bottlenecks, density limits and inefficient zoning rules would help reduce costs and support the housing growth the nation needs.”

With respect to mortgage rates, they averaged 6.54% in June vs 6.41% in May. We know all about the affordability challenges and they remain until proven otherwise.

NAHB

Prospective buyers traffic

Positions: None.

With these index shorts I am moving closer to medium-sized:

* SPY  (SPY) $753.96
* QQQ  (QQQ) $741.72

Positions: Short SPY S QQQ S 

Upside:

-TRIP +13% (sells European restaurant reservation platform TheFork to American Express for $700M cash)

-CMTL +12% (earnings; sells most of Satellite and Space Communications segment to Gilat for $157.5M)

-MU +8.1% (multiple broker price target hikes)

-NBIS +7.2% (added to NASDAQ 100 index)

-SPCX +5.9% (momentum)

-CEVA +4.2% (Needham Initiates CEVA with Buy, price target: $55)

-PAYO +3.7% (confirms to be acquired by Nuvei at $7.40/shr in cash)

-DDOG +3.5% (Truist Raised DDOG to Buy from Hold, price target: $300 from $190)

-PSKY +3.1% (DOJ approves Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros)

-PGY +2.7% (closes upsized $800M AAA-rated personal loan ABS transaction

-PAYX +2.2% (CitiGroup Raised PAYX to Buy from Neutral, price target: $140 from $99)

Downside:

-ELTX -64% (Phase 2 AMPLIFY-7P Study did not meet the pre-specified primary endpoint of disease-free survival (“DFS”) in the intent-to-treat population)

-NMRA -49% (discontinues navacaprant Phase 3 development in KOASTAL-2 and -3 after missing primary and key secondary endpoints)

-TRAW -18% (Phase 2a tivoxavir marboxil influenza challenge study deferred after MHRA review)

-FOX -12% (ROKU to be acquired by Fox Corp at $160/shr in $22B cash-stock deal)

-PTRN -8.8% (Holders file to sell 8M Class A shares)

-FISV -6.1% (names new CEO; affirms FY26 outlook)

-BAND -4.6% (files to sell $275M convertible senior notes due 2032)

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Treasury Auctions

8:00 a.m.: Fed Treasury Repo Reference Rate; 

11:00 a.m.: Treasury buyback announcement (liq sup-port); 

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts an $89 billion 3 and a $77 billion Month Bill Auction

Economic Calendar

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

Now vs Then

A big high five to all my fellow life long Knick fans and also to those more recent. It’s amazing the emotions that sports can bring.

For frame of reference I’m going to compare current prices of a variety of things to where they stood on the last trading day of February, right before the conflict began that weekend. Also note that many prices started to price in a deal beginning in early April when the White House started to signal that they wanted one. And we know the GenAI tech trade has been completely immune from the events of the Middle East.

WTI July contract

$66.18 vs $80.25 today

WTI Dec contract

$63.73 vs $74.81 today

Brent Aug contract

$70.88 vs $82.83 today

Brent Dec contract

$68.64 vs $79.95 today

DAP Nola Phosphate

$627.50 per ton vs $782.50 Friday

US Gulf Nola Urea

$470 per ton vs $386 Friday

US Natural Gas

$3.34 vs $3.04 today

TTF in Europe

$31.61 vs $44.09 today

Bloomberg Agriculture Index

54.56 vs 53.91 Friday

Aluminum

$3,140 per ton vs $3,426 Friday

Copper

$6.17 per pound vs $6.56 today

European Naphtha

$563.9 vs $706.23 Friday

Polyethylene

$6,393 per ton vs $7,853 Friday

US 10 yr Treasury Yield

3.94% vs 4.45% today

US 2 yr Treasury Yield

3.38% vs 4.04% today

US 10 yr Inflation Breakeven

2.26% vs 2.32% today

German 10 yr Bund Yield

2.64% vs 2.96% today

German 2 yr Bund Yield

2.00% vs 2.56% today

Japanese 10 yr JGB Yield

2.12% vs 2.58% today

Japanese 2 yr JGB Yield

1.23% vs 1.40% today

DXY

97.60 vs 99.55 today

NASDAQ 100

24,960 vs 30,228 indicated this morning

S&P 500

6879 vs 7520 indicated this morning

S&P 500 Equal Weight

8290 vs 8556 Friday

Euro STOXX 600

633.85 vs 637.56 today

South Korean Kospi

6244 vs 8546 today

I will also add my belief that the global trend that started last year to diversify capital and trade flows around the world and to be less dependent (though still very reliant) on the US will only continue. And certainly the work has begun to shift supply chains away from the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will only lose more leverage as the years progress from here.

* Some positive news in Virginia…

Virginia Lawmakers And Governor ‘Have A Deal’ On Bill To Legalize Marijuana Sales This Month – Marijuana Moment

Position: None

In the last four weeks CNBC has been inundated with advertisements for “hot stock ideas.”

This condition is not the sign of the start of a new bull market.  

Position: None

* While the price of oil is retreating, the stock futures’ Pavlovian reaction to the deal makes little sense to me

* I am adding to my short book based on the outsized response to a terrible (framework of a) deal…

The Iranian deal, as announced, is a tragic failure and shows how badly out-negotiated the U.S was.  

The major U.S. asset in the negotiations was the blockade yet amazingly it was the first concession the U.S. made. This destroys our negotiating position as Tehran knows that once the blockade ends and the ships routed away, it is highly unlikely that it will ever be reconstituted. In contrast, Iran can reinstate a blockade of Hormuz at any time it wishes and the issue of control and fees was not even conceded by Iran. At a time when the U.S. initially said benefits to Iran would be based on performance, the reverse has occurred. It is the U.S. which must act first. The Iranians demanded the end of the blockade before allowing free passage.

With all the focus on Iran’s nuclear program, it is totally absent in this agreement, no commitments regarding removing the enriched material, no dismantling the enriching infrastructure, no inspections—all to rediscussed later.

There is nothing regarding curtailing extensive missile production.

There are no commitments for Iran to stop supporting resistance groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Indeed, Lebanon was included in the plans for cessation of military activity which, in essence, confirms Iran’s commitment to Hezbollah. This restricts Israel’s ability to defend itself and creates enormous pressures for Netanyahu.

This agreement hands the Revolutionary Guards a great victory and cements their governance in Iran. The Iranian people, who we claimed to stand by, have been abandoned. Regime change is gone.

The 60-day negotiating period is meaningless as it can be extended and likely will be. Iran knows that President Trump’s desperate to stop the war despite his bluster and knows he will not take any military action before the midterms. Thus, the big issues, which were the basis of the original strike, will likely go unresolved for a very long time and many never be resolved as Iran loves to play the long game.

The coexistence of this terrible agreement with the spectacle of a cage fight on the White House lawn is hard to take — but the markets apparently feel different and are rejoicing.

I am fading that response by adding to my short book.

Position: None

In premarket trading I shorted INTC at $130.16.

Position: Short INTC (S)

I purchased MSFT at $382.17 on weakness Friday.

I am selling some in the premarket at $398.10 — nearly +$16/share higher.

From Friday:

Buying Back Two Stocks

I just bought back:

 * MSFT (MSFT) $382.71

Positions: Long AMZN S MSFT S

BY Doug Kass · Jun 12, 2026, 9:47 AM EDT

Position: Long MSFT (VS)

BY Doug Kass · Jun 12, 2026, 11:25 AM EDT

Position: Long AMZN (S), MSFT (S)

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is back to overbought at 1.1% vs. -0.1%

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

I moved from VS to S in index shorts overnight, coincident with the strong rally in stock futures (+96 handles S&P +655 Nasdaq :

* SPY $751.25
* QQQ $737.20

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)