After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 11% above its one-month average  
– NASDAQ volume 5% above its one-month average  
– VIX index: down 2.52% to 18.20

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

Earnings After the Close Tuesday

Earnings Pre-Open Wednesday

Position: None

Bloom Energy (BE) is down by another -$30 to $158 and I am bidding to cover more of my short holding.

From less than three weeks ago:

Update on a Bloom-ing Short

New short Bloom Energy (BE) at (in premarket at $265.39).

More next week.

Positions: Short BE VS

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 10:27 AM EDT

Position: Short BE (VS)

I am convicted (on a longer-term basis) in the cannabis sector.

I literally have added daily for the reasons previously mentioned.

From Randorama:

Randy

Daily Marijuana Use Now Outpaces Alcohol Drinking And Cigarette Smoking, Federal Report Shows

The 2025 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), released on Monday, shows that 21.4 million Americans over the age of 12 admit to using marijuana on a daily or almost-daily basis, which is measured as having consumed it on 20 or more days during a 30-day period.

In comparison, 17.2 million Americans said they use alcohol every day or almost every day, using the same definition.

Position: None

At 1:05 PM:

Position: None

The markets have never been so driven by machines and algos.

Today’s sharp drop was another example of the market’s lack of predictability which goes (hand in hand) with an investment landscape dominated by passive products and strategies that worhsip at the altar of price momentum.

It is why (along with other reasons) a “market structure event” seems more likely than ever. 

It is rare that I am down by -$7 immediately in a QQQ trading long rental, but that was the case this morning. It’s all about the machines front running each other and being on the same side of the investment boat — knowing little about value and everything about price.

While I ended up being profitable in the QQQ trade, the terrain is getting ever more dangerous (both on the downside AND the upside) — so one has to reduce VAR (value at risk) by operating with lower share and dollar positions.

At least that is my advice and that is my modus operandi.

Position: None  

From Peter Boockvar:

Home price growth still flat lining/Consumer confidence remains subdued

Home price increases continue to flat line, up 1.1% y/o/y in May according to the S&P Cotality national home price index. This 1% ish trend up has now been in place over the past 9 months which I think is a good thing after the huge gains seen in the prior years which certainly benefited current homeowners but priced out first time buyers and froze the pace of transactions, along with the mortgage rate lock effect, at the lowest level in 30 years. It also creates some space and time for wage growth to run faster than home price appreciation to hopefully improve affordability options for young buyers.

Regionally, Chicago was the best market with a 7% rise y/o/y followed by NY with a 4.2% increase, Cleveland up by 3%, Boston home prices higher by 2.75% and San Francisco up by 2.2%. Softer prices were seen in Las Vegas, Seattle, Denver, Tampa and Phoenix, all down between 1-2%.

Home Price Index y/o/y

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for July fell to 90.8 from 92.2 and was a bit below the forecast of 92.4. All of the decline was in the Present Situation as the Expectations component was unchanged m/o/m. One year inflation expectations dropped down to 5.5% from 5.9% and back to where it was in February, pre war.

The answers to the labor market questions were mixed. Negatively, those that say that presently jobs are Plentiful fell to the lowest level since February 2021. Jobs Hard to Get fell a touch but off the highest level since February 2021. There are hopes though for improvement as 6 month expectations for ‘more jobs’ rose 1.1 pts m/o/m to 16.7, matching the most since December, but as seen below, still bouncing along the bottom. Income expectations slipped .4 pts but after rising by 1.5 pts last month.

Spending intentions on the big ticket items for vehicles and homes declined with vehicles at a 6 month low. Plans to buy a major appliance rose in most categories.

The Conference Board said this on intentions to spend on services, of course less sensitive to the cost of financing and experiential stuff remains a priority, “Consumers planned to spend more on services over the next six months. Among all service categories, restaurants/bars/take-out, streaming/internet/mobile services, and beauty and personal care remained among the top three spending targets. Beyond the top three, consumers anticipated spending more on many activities in the next six months, such as movies, hotels for personal travel, airfare, and amusement parks, and museums and historical sites. Accordingly, overall travel intentions within six months perked up in July after easing for most of the year. Domestic travel plans recovered while foreign travel plans softened a bit.”

Notably from the Conference Board, “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be mostly pessimistic in July. References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Comments about food and grocery prices increased. Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased during the sample period. However, as the fighting has reaccelerated quite recently there could be an increase in these mentions in the revised data for July. Notably, references to jobs and unemployment picked up slightly.”

Bottom line, consumer confidence remains very subdued and so much having to do with inflation and the ever rising cost of living.

Consumer Confidence

One yr Inflation Expectations

Jobs Plentiful

Jobs Hard to Get

Expecting ‘More Jobs’

Position: None

I added to MSOS, TRLV, GTBIF and VRNO this morning.

Position: Long MSOS (VVL), TRLV (S), GTBIF (S), VRNO (S)

 – NYSE volume15% above its one-month average; 

– Nasdaq volume 20% above its one-month average; 

– VIX index: down 0.96% to 18.49

Positions: None.

I have sold out my QQQ trading long rental (up nine dollars from the day’s lows) for a profit at $676.36.

I plan to add back in weakness.

Position: None 

I have covered the balance of my SpaceX (SPCX) short at $111.80.

SpaceX is trading under $112, down from my short at $213 and its high of $225.

I value SPCX at about $70-$80/share (as I noted at the time of the IPO).

My view is that the Musk/Tesla/SpaceX cult (as they did with Tesla) will maintain a premium to my fair market value for some time to come.

That premium is now about 50%, which is much less than the premium Tesla has maintained over time.

Positions: None.

I am bidding slightly under the market to cover more SpaceX (SPCX) (trading under $110).

Position: Short SPCX VS

My cost basis on my (SNDK) trading long rental is $1,169 (well below last sale!).

Positions: Long SNDK S 

Added to MSOS (MSOS) at $4.20.

Position: Long MSOS VVL

I have added to QQQ (QQQ) at $669.41.

Position: Long QQQ S

From Peter Boockvar:

If you won’t let me buy your stuff, I’m going to build it myself

If you won’t let me buy your stuff, I’m going to build it myself. That continues to be the mantra of the Chinese, which began in 2018-2020 and was reflected again over the past month with their fast advancing AI models and yesterday with the CXMT IPO and the news that Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group is going to start mass producing deep ultraviolet lithography machines (DUV) and if perfected, will need less from supplier ASML. The challenge for the non-Chinese tech industry, particularly in the US, is that China is climbing quickly up the tech expertise ladder. As I’ve said a few times over the past month talking about CXMT, and over the past year, ignore the competition of China tech at your equity peril.

The South Korean Kospi by the way closed down 11% overnight with Samsung down 13.4% and SK Hynix lower by 14.7%. The TAIEX fell by around 4% with Taiwan Semi lower by 3%. Memory producer Kioxia in Japan was hit by 18% and Tokyo Electron by about 11%.

This is all one big global trade.

Finally here, this is a chart as of yesterday’s close of Nvidia’s credit default swaps as they take on ever larger obligations and tie their mast even closer to OpenAI. It now costs $77,590 to insure against $10mm of loan exposure to Nvidia vs about $40,000 just two months ago.

Getting right to some earnings calls.

From LVMH, down about 2% in France this morning:

“Revenue momentum accelerated sequentially in our three largest divisions; fashion and leather goods, selective distribution, with watch and jewelry at double digit growth in Q2. Our key geographies posted sequential acceleration.”

“US, Japan, and Asia, all posted mid single digit growth for the first half…Europe declined modestly 1%, penalized by lackluster touristic demand.”

Even their wines and spirits business saw 5% organic growth “predominantly driven by volume growth, reflecting improving demand for our products.”

Perfumes & Cosmetics was a softer spot with flat growth on an organic basis and “looking at key markets, while travel retail remained a headwind, Asia and Japan enjoyed good momentum.”

I went back to last week’s call from Comcast to hear what they had to say on their parks business. From them:

“The operating environment has softened more than we anticipated. Unpacking this by geography, in Orlando, Epic Universe continues to perform well and is delivering the strong guest response we expected. At the same time, attendance across the broader Orlando market began to soften in June, and that trend has continued into the third quarter. We believe there are some temporary factors at work, including higher fuel prices and weaker consumer sentiment, but we are watching these trends closely.”

“Internationally, Osaka continues to be affected by China related travel restrictions, while Beijing is operating against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.”

From Royal Caribbean that just reported and whose stock is down pre-market but business seems good:

“The overall demand environment remains strong, supported by consumers’ continued preference for the company’s differentiated experiences. Since the last earnings call, the company has experienced a modest, near term impact on bookings for select itineraries, primarily due to prolonged geopolitical activity. The company remains booked at record prices, booking volumes are above last year’s levels, and load factors remain robust across its vacation portfolio. The company continues to benefit from strong guest engagement and demand for onboard and destination experiences, supported by ongoing enhancements to its product offerings and more targeted pre-cruise engagement.”

“While still very early, booking trends for 2027 are encouraging and pacing ahead of historical levels, including itineraries where demand was impacted by geopolitical developments this year.”

I’ll end with some of the comments from the Dallas manufacturing index for July seen yesterday which came in at +1.3 vs zero in June. They reflect still a very much mixed and uneven part of the economy if you’re not selling into the data center buildout.

This was the dourest and saddest one from a company in the Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturingspace:

“We will close our 1951-2026 business due to lack of demand.”

Also in that space from others:

“Lower demand is projected in the second half, but still strong.”

“Geopolitical and national political uncertainty, combined with inflation, undermines consumer and business confidence. People and businesses are sitting on the sidelines.”

In the Beverage & Tobacco Product Manufacturing sector:

“Increased gasoline prices create a burden on the consumer that we think can have a negative impact on spending on craft beer. We thought fuel prices were on the way down but now they are back up. This creates a certain amount of uncertainty going forward.”

From some in the Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing industry:

“Our projected production increases, employee headcount and business improvements are based on a verbal commitment that we will soon receive a large, new contract from a German customer.”

“June was a very high month for us, but July is more normal. The war in Iran is impacting us in unexpected ways. Printed circuit board (PCB) pricing is unstable now because Iran attacked a facility in Saudi Arabia that produces a large amount of the global supply of a material used in the manufacturing process. We expected higher fuel costs to filter through but did not anticipate PCBs to be impacted in this way.”

“We are in a holding pattern but we continue to service existing customers.”

In Machinery Manufacturing:

“We’re still getting steady orders while having to increase prices due to raw material cost escalation. Maybe someday everything will settle down and be more predictable.”

“We see a very strong oil-based economy that will be with us for many years. We are losing competitors. Therefore, we are able to raise our prices but not increase our product costs. We’re investing in new machines that will increase our production but overall reduce our cost of manufacturing. However, we will not reduce our labor force, but productivity will increase substantially. We’ve been falling behind in maintaining our levels of finished products, but these new investments will solve those problems over the next six months.”

“This is our third straight month of sales below average.”

“The backlog is continuing to grow, and business is good in every respect for our operation.”

“Customer concentration in the oil and gas industry is increasing buying power and forcing more competitive pricing and faster delivery.”

In Textile Product Mills:

“We’ve seen an uptick in activity, orders and production. We also formalized and implemented our first price increase in 5 years to counter the rising product, wage and business costs. There was no pushback or negative feedback from customers—this was something they’ve experienced with other companies and understood.”

In Transportation Equipment Manufacturing:

“Too much noise in the economy and high interest rates make planning or taking risks difficult.”

Upside:

-IQV +11% (earnings, guidance)

-ALT +10% (reports Phase 2 pemvidutide data in alcohol use disorder with primary endpoint met)

-BZFD +8.9% (Board approves 35% workforce reduction)

-ITRI +7.9% (earnings, guidance)

-SHW +6.9% (earnings, guidance)

-CORZ +5.9% (earnings; partners with AMD for up to 2.5 GW of US AI data center capacity)

-OPK +5.7% (earnings, guidance)

-KO +4.0% (earnings, guidance)

-OSK +4.0% (earnings, guidance)

-ABG +3.9% (earnings, color)

-DINO +3.3% (earnings; raises dividend)

-V +2.4% (said to cut 2,600 jobs, about 7% of workforce)

-ITW +2.2% (earnings, guidance)

-JNJ +2.1% (announces a proposed resolution of ovarian Talc litigation committing $5.5B)

Downside:

-INVZ -32% (prices 66.7M ordinary shares for $30M at $0.45/shr)

-SPWR -23% (prelim earnings, guidance)

-GLW -17% (earnings, guidance)

-REPL -15% (FDA posts briefing documents ahead of Adcom meeting for vusolimogene oderparepvec on Thursday)

-TE -11% (guidance)

-NVTS -8.6% (earnings, guidance)

-SNDK -8.0% (memory space weakness)

-WDC -7.7% (memory space weakness)

-STX -7.1% (memory space weakness)

-MU -6.8% (memory space weakness)

-TXT -6.4% (earnings, guidance)

-CVLT -6.2% (earnings, guidance)

-NE -5.2% (earnings, guidance)

-LNTH -3.9% (reportedly Curium close to acquisition deal for ~$7B)

-UHS -3.3% (earnings, guidance)

-RCL -2.5% (earnings, guidance)

-SPGI -2.5% (earnings, guidance)

-CARR -2.0% (earnings, guidance)

Coca-Cola (KO) beat earnings per share expectations by $0.04, beat revenue expectations and raised its fiscal 2026 organic revenue growth and comparable EPS growth guidance.

Not surprisingly, I expect a positive market response to the release, which should have a collaterol benefit to PepsiCo (PEP).

Here is the complete release.  Coca-Cola Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year Guidance :: The Coca-Cola Company (KO)

Positions: KO VS PEP S

Positions: None.

Treasury Actions

11:00 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4, 8 and 17 Week Bill Auction; 
11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $95B 6-Week Bill Auction; 

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $44B 7-Year Note Auction; 

2:00 p.m.: Treasury Buyback (liq support)

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Added to SanDisk (SNDK) at $1,175 and QQQ (QQQ) at $675.61.

I am now 10% net long (I was 10% net short four weeks ago), which is the highest net long position in months.

Positions: Long SNDK S QQQ S

Yesterday was an extreme example of divergence within the market and in the tech space.

Memory and chips were an unmitigated disaster as the hyperscalers (e.g. MSFT, GOOGL) flourished.

Meanwhile, the consumer staples (defensive) ripped higher in a sea of market red.

I see Monday’s action as another example of potential market structure risks in which, in a market where so many worship at the altar of price, they all want to get in (and out!) at the same time.

Look out below?  

Position: Long PEP (VS), KMB (VS), PG (VS), MSFT (VS), GOOGL (VS)

I have taken a trading long rental in the Nasdaq (6:30 AM):

* QQQ $676.74

Position: Long QQQ (S)

From Charlie!

The Week in Charts (7/27/26)

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved back toward neutral at -0.33% vs. -1.27%;

Position: None