Bonds Finally Receive Some Attention
Bonds may have found a bid, but stocks haven’t, with new lows jumping on the NYSE and Nasdaq.
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The Market
There were a lot of complaints that, for a down day, the market was very slow. Let me report right now that the NYSE saw its highest volume since last Thursday, as did Nasdaq. And the QQQs? The highest volume in weeks.
The new lows increased again with the NYSE chiming in at 175. Nasdaq is now creeping up in new lows, too, with 188. But the NYSE (where so many of the ‘others’ reside) now has the most stocks making new lows since the S&P was back at 6300. If you are bullish, you want to see that contract.
The McClellan Summation Index (shown below) never really participated in the upside—despite the hootin’ and hollerin’ about broadening out—and now needs a net differential of +1200 advancers minus decliners on the NYSE to halt the decline.
I suppose the good news is that today was the third straight red day for the S&P, so we could/ought to see a rally attempt on Wednesday.
But the real story remains the bonds. You might have noticed they rallied today. But it did not stop interest rates from being the talk of the town. Thanks to a reader, we now know that PBS led off their evening news with interest rates last night. The Wall Street Journal featured interest rates –with a chart—on the front page this morning.
And late this afternoon, the New York Times put a story—with a chart—above the fold on the front page.
Was today the low in TLT/bonds? I don’t know. I would love bonds to come down one more time so that we can get the DSI under 15. I would love to see bonds come down one more time so that folks who just yesterday (and many today) said interest rates don’t matter start to say ‘have you seen interest rates? They matter!’
I still think interest rates will mostly stay in a range, sometimes exiting the range for short periods of time. But I also like it when there is hysteria. It feels like we are building toward it. And while the Utes managed to stay green today, I still want to see a W pattern there, so they, too, could use another pullback.
New Ideas
I would love to see Alphabet (GOOGL) tag that 330 area. The stock has seen no selling (no buying either!) in the last week, so it feels as if one more whack and we could get it oversold enough to bounce.
Nucor (NUE) is starting to look vulnerable to me. It barely made a higher high on good news and is now threatening to at the very least tag that uptrend line.
Today’s Indicator
The McClellan Summation Index is discussed in full above.
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
Truist Financial (TFC) hasn’t done anything wrong, but if the banks are so great, why hasn’t it made a higher high yet? I will call it a hold until/unless it breaks that uptrend line. Notice it hasn’t even been able to get up and over that mid-July high. That is bothersome to me.
I was asked about Marriott (MAR), and as I wrote about two weeks ago, after it swooned, I expected it would retest that low and then rally. My initial target is that gap fill around 370. If I am wrong and it cannot fill that gap and turns south in a hurry, then I’d get very cautious if it breaks 340.
Marvel (MRVL) is not a great chart, but I’ve got my eye on that gap around 195 as a point where the stock ought to bounce. If I am wrong and it comes all the way down to retest the late July low then I’d have to re-assess the chart.
