We’re Adding to This Position and Upgrading Our Rating
Truck orders continue to surge, pointing to big-time operating leverage at the company.
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| Symbol | Transaction Type | # Shares Traded | Recent Price $ | Shares Owned After Trade | % Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR | Buy | 255 | 123.32 | 1,335 | 2.6 |
After you receive this alert, the Pro Portfolio will buy 255 Paccar (PCAR) shares at or near $123.50. Following the trade, we will own 1,335 PCAR shares, accounting for roughly 2.65% of the Pro Portfolio’s assets.
One of the leading industry indicators we track for our position in heavy and medium-duty truck company Paccar is monthly heavy truck orders. We now have preliminary order figures from two sources, FTR and ACT Research, and while there is some variance in their findings, both point to another month of substantial year-over-year heavy truck orders growth.
ACT Research, which is the one more closely tracked by Wall Street, found that, on a preliminary basis, August heavy truck orders climbed 31% year over year to 16,800 units.
FTR’s findings put that preliminary August figure at 18,200 units, up 42% year over year.
Final numbers will be published in the coming weeks, but we can surmise a few things in the meantime. Typically, annual order books close in August, with orders in September and ensuing months filling slots for the coming year of production. That tends to result in some seasonal weakness in August at least until the order books re-open in September for the following year.
The thing is, industry orders were almost 70% higher on a year over year basis in Q2 2026 and for the current quarter to date that figure was just shy of 50%. That tells us production levels are not only going to be strong in the back half of 2026, but mixed with the EPA emission mandate, we should see that order strength reaccelerate in the next few months.
It’s that pull forward in demand and the goosing it should give operating leverage inside of Paccar that we aim to capture by owning the shares. We’ll reiterate that, based on what we know today, the odds of us owning PCAR shares in the Pro Portfolio in early 2027 are iffy, but we’ll reserve that judgment until we get closer to the EPA mandate.
We may get some questions about concerns over higher interest rates, but remember the incremental cost of meeting pending EPA mandates and accelerated depreciation under the One Big Beautiful Bill that includes heavy trucks are strong offsets.
As we make this move with PCAR, we will reiterate our $155 price target, and given the recent pullback in the shares and the upside to our target, lift our rating to One from Two. We will also reset our checkpoint to $110 from $115.
On the heels of the August industry order figures, we are seeing other PCAR price targets move up this morning, with BofA going to $150 from $131.50 and JPMorgan to $164 from $155.
(Please note that we are looking to execute these trades at or near the share price mentioned above. Once the trade is completed, subscribers can see the trade’s executed price here. Be sure to toggle the chart to sort by Purchase Date.)
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long PCAR shares.
