Trump Unveils New Tariffs: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday
Intel’s earnings, Amex reports, mortgage rate headwinds, and other headlines are moving stocks this morning.
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These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Friday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive start to the final day of trading for the week.
1. U.S. President Donald Trump promised “major military punishment” for Iran and its Houthi allies after the Yemeni fighters struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, extending the Middle East war to a second major shipping chokepoint. Fears that disruption could widen to block another sea route sent global oil prices surging in one of the steepest rises of the war. Brent crude rose more than 6%, piercing the level of $100 a barrel for the first time since May. (Reuters) Investors are now heading into a weekend that could bring further escalation in the Middle East, ahead of a stack of earnings from AI hyperscalers next week. (Bloomberg)
2. The United States on Friday imposed new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners, including the EU and China, alleging those countries failed to curb imports made by forced labor, just as a temporary 10% global tariff expired. The move is the White House’s first step in efforts to rebuild President Donald Trump’s near-global tariff wall after the U.S. Supreme Court in February struck down his “reciprocal” duties of 10% to 50% imposed last year under a national emergencies law to try to shrink the U.S. trade deficit. (Reuters)
While U.S. equity futures point to a positive start to the trading day, the risk-off mood is likely to restrain the market’s rebound. We could see traders take short-term gains off the table as the market gets ready for the weekend and what it brings when it comes to next steps between the U.S. and Iran, and retaliatory measures or negotiation signals from the EU, U.K., Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Switzerland now that the new forced-labor tariffs are in effect.
As we move through today, we’ll be keeping an eye on the technical setup for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite we discussed yesterday.
3. Intel reported its fastest revenue growth in 15 years and added $2bn to its capital spending plans on Thursday as demand for chips used in AI data centres accelerated its financial turnaround… Intel’s data centre and AI business revenue — relating to the server chips used in the infrastructure that trains and runs AI models — was up 59 per cent to $6.3bn, above the $5.6bn analysts expected, according to Visible Alpha… Intel on Thursday also upped its planned capital spending for this year from $18bn to $20bn and forecast higher spending into 2027… Intel, alongside chip designers AMD and Arm, has pointed to a greater demand for CPUs in the infrastructure needed to run AI applications through a process known as “inference”. (FT) Sales will be $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion in the third quarter, the company said Thursday. Even the low end of that range would easily clear the $15.1 billion average analyst estimate. (Bloomberg)
That 59% increase for Intel’s (INTC) data center and AI revenue, and the telegraphed increase in the current quarter, goes a long way to connecting the dots between increased capital spending levels at Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) this week with the impact on chip demand. Despite that improving tailwind, we are seeing multiple chip stocks move lower in premarket trading.
Our take on this is the market is increasingly expecting Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) to also boost their capex levels, which could weigh on stocks further in the near-term. As we move past those reports and hyperscaler capex levels are recalibrated, our thinking is that would be the time to pick up additional chip shares.
That timing would also mean we get past next week’s Fed meeting, which could deliver incrementally hawkish comments. Between now and next Wednesday, we’ll continue to follow the move in oil prices and what that could mean for July inflation data beyond what is revealed in today’s Flash July PMI from S&P Global at 9:45 AM ET.
4. American Express on Friday posted better-than-expected second-quarter profit as its mostly affluent cardholder base continued to spend in the past three months. Amex’s second-quarter net income rose to $3.11 billion from $2.88 billion a year ago. That amounted to earnings of $4.53 a share, coming in above Wall Street’s expectation of $4.40. Revenue grew 10% to $19.64 billion, slightly missing the analyst consensus view of $19.69 billion, according to FactSet. Looking ahead, Amex now expects full-year revenue growth of 10%, from the previous 9% to 10% view. The company maintained its 2026 profit guidance at $17.30 to $17.90 a share. (Barron’s)
Shares of American Express (AXP) are moving lower in premarket trading ahead of the company’s earnings conference call that begins at 8:30 AM ET. In our view that move reflects Amex maintaining its 2026 EPS guidance of $17.30-$17.90 despite the EPS beat delivered in Q2 2026, but we also know the management team at Amex skews conservative.
Adding to our view that management guidance is conservative, the number of cards in force rose to 155.1 million compared to 149.4 million in the year-ago quarter while average fee per card climbed to $131 from $117 in Q2 2025. This confirms the Platinum card refresh and similar programs for other cards are winning new members, and points to a nice step up in net card fees in H2 2026 compared to H1 2026 and H2 2025. Remember, net card fees tend to account for 70% of Amex’s pretax income. On this morning’s earnings call, we’ll want to hear more from the Amex management team about these refresh efforts and what comes next on that front.
5. Mortgage rates notched another recent high this week. It’s uphill from here as Treasury yields jump. This week, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.58%, the highest since the week of Aug. 21, 2025, and up slightly from 6.55% last week, according to data from Freddie Mac (Barron’s)
Here’s the thing, the data collection period ends Wednesday evening. That means Thursday’s jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, a barometer for mortgage rate movements, has yet to factor in. The rise in rates is likely to push potential home buyers to the sidelines and that could stoke an even greater use of incentives by homebuilders to win orders, pressuring margins further.
The rise in Treasuries could also lead to higher credit card borrowing costs and auto loans could rise. But there is the potential for a modest positive as certificates of deposit could offer higher savings rates.
6. President Donald Trump announced a non-binding pledge by U.S. power producers and data centers on Thursday to fund or build energy infrastructure that would meet massive AI-related power needs while shielding consumers from high electricity costs. (Reuters)
Given the Portfolio’s position in Eaton (ETN), we are well aware of the ballooning demand for electricity and that while the data-center buildout is a factor, it isn’t the only one. We are also seeing reports that Trump will make an announcement on American nuclear innovation today at 3:00 PM ET, and that could give us another reason to revisit an ETF, such as the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) or VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR). Following the potential rug pull for Trump’s nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, we’ll want to see the details of any Trump announcement this afternoon so as not to make a premature move.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: S&P Global Flash PMI (July), New Home Sales (June).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – American Express (AXP), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Charter Communications (CHTR), HCA (HCA), Lamb Weston (LW), NextEra Energy (NEE), Sensient (SXT), Verizon (VZ).
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN, AXP, ETN, GOOGL, META, and MSFT.
