The Mid-Term Election Race Is Heating Up, and So Is the Advertising Spend

We’ve frequently discussed the ongoing shift to digital advertising and how that factors into our thinking on Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and increasingly Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN) and few others in the Pro Portfolio. The time-tested thinking is that advertising dollars follow the medium people are consuming — and we tend to see that in spades when we have an election year.

Well, we have what is shaping up to be record-setting mid-term election spending this year, which is expected to surpass the 2024 presidential election cycle. That’s the claim from AdImpact, which sees the 2026 election cycle reaching $11.6 billion in spending. That’s a 30% increase compared to what was spent on the mid-term elections in 2022 ($8.9 billion) and higher than the $11.2 billion spent during the 2025 presidential cycle.

This also marks the first time mid-term spending is seen eclipsing the previous presidential cycle. That should tell you something about being prepared for what may seem like an endless barrage of political ads you’ll be receiving in the coming months.

While the 2026 election cycle will be kind to broadcasters, connected television continues remains the fastest-growing media in political advertising. AdImpact now sees that medium garnering $2.7 billion from the mid-term election cycle. Digital spending across Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X has also been revised upward to $1.6 billion, a 9% increase from the original projection. That’s nearly double the boost AdImpact sees for broadcasters in its new forecast compared to its prior one.

Assuming the historical pattern holds, and there is ample reason to think it will given the timing for these elections, we should see a significant ramp in that advertising spending during Q3 2026 and the first part of Q4 2026.

Before we get too excited, when we look at the consensus revenue expectations for H2 2026 for Meta, Alphabet or others, it’s fair to say that election spending will give some extra cushion for those consensus revenue figures, but it won’t be the major driver of their advertising revenue.

The primary driver of their advertising revenue is continued share gains against legacy media. Total worldwide advertising investment crossed the $1 trillion mark in 2025, driven by an estimated 5.8% year-over-year increase. The market is on pace to grow by 5.0% globally in 2026, reaching $1.06 trillion. Part of that increase is due to the confluence of the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup, and election cycles in the U.S. and in other parts of the world.

The latest figures point to digital advertising accounting for 73%-75% of total global media spend, up from roughly 65% five years ago. Giving some additional support, market research and strategy firm Manochi finds that that the total number of people using the internet had reached 6.12 billion at the start of April 2026, resulting in a global internet penetration figure of 73.8%.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro was long AMZN, GOOGL, META, and NFLX.