Taiwan Semi Ups Spending Plans: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Thursday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Thursday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a mixed market open. With the June Retail Sales report out at 8:30 AM ET, we’ll want to revisit those equity futures once the market has had some time to digest those findings.

1. Iran said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz was an inviolable “red line”, warning that if U.S. President Donald Trump carried out his threat to attack Iran’s infrastructure, it would strike all infrastructure across the Gulf region… The latest escalation and Iran’s threats to shut off more regional energy exports and possibly strike regional infrastructure raise the spectre of a return to full-scale ⁠war in the region. Analysts say Iran has signalled it may use its Houthi allies in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting a second of the world’s most vital energy arteries at risk. (Reuters) President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations in Iran after days of briefings from top aides, U.S. officials said. Options include stepping up airstrikes, sending ground forces to seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz and bombing a fortified site that could be used for covert nuclear work. (WSJ)

It sounds to us like further escalation is ahead, and potentially greater uncertainty about the duration of the conflict and the economic disruption it is likely to bring.

2. Oil traders have warned the latest flare-up of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz threatens a fresh crude supply crunch without the stockpiles that helped avert a wider economic crisis earlier in the US-Iran war… traders said that if the renewed closure of the strait lasts for months, with some suspecting Iran wants to keep the pressure on Trump ahead of the November midterm elections, it is not clear this time where the oil to make up the shortfall would come from. (FT)

Cue the word “duration” as well as word from United Airlines (UAL) that it expects nearly $6 billion in additional fuel expense this year compared with what it estimated at the start of 2026. The airline said the increase in fuel prices since the beginning of July alone had added $575 million to its expected third-quarter costs, equivalent to $1.12 per share in adjusted earnings. Strong demand for air travel and fare hikes, however, led United to lift the low-end of its 2026 EPS guidance range.

Yesterday we discussed how gas prices are already back on the rise, and this morning trader chatter suggests we could see oil prices back between $90-$95 depending on the duration of the conflict and its disruption. If so, that would erase a good chunk of the month-over-month drop registered in the June CPI and PPI reports.

3. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. raised its spending and revenue projections for the year, reflecting its confidence that torrid growth in demand for chips and data centers will extend into 2027 and beyond. The main chipmaker for Nvidia Corp. now expects capital expenditure of $60 billion to $64 billion in 2026, at least $4 billion higher than previously forecast. It’s projecting revenue growth of slightly above 40%, significantly higher than the 30%-plus it had predicted… “The capex in the next three years will be even more, significantly higher than in the past three years.” (Bloomberg)

We’ll get more color on Taiwan Semi’s (TSM) quarter and guidance once we’ve reviewed the Q2 2026 earnings call. Scanning the company’s press release and earnings call we find the growth rate for its HPC segment, which houses AI and data center, accelerated to 47% year over year in Q2 2026, up from 45% and 30% in the prior two quarters. The smartphone segment slumped just over 5% compared to Q1 2026 but still delivered positive growth on a year-over-year basis. When we review the earnings call, our focus will be on end-market comments for the coming quarters and what that means for our chip holdings in the Portfolio.

We suspected TSM would lift its 2026 capital spending budget, but the remark about capital spending for the next three years underscores the spending comments we’ve heard from Micron (MU), Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (SKHY), and others. That keeps us bullish on the Portfolio’s position in Applied Materials (AMAT), and that has us closely tracking the shares with an eye to add more at the right price.

4. Japan is planning to buy 27,500 next-generation Rubin chips from Nvidia Corp. to build a homegrown foundational AI model for robots. Newly established Noetra Corp., which has been allocated ¥387.3 billion ($2.4 billion) from government coffers through March of next year, said it will oversee the endeavor, with plans to build an estimated 140-megawatt data center. (Bloomberg)

While we wait for word on when China will greenlight imports of Nvidia’s (NVDA) H200 chips, the above is a reminder that AI and data center demand is more than just what we hear about here in the U.S. from the big hyperscalers. Coming into this year, McKinsey found that sovereign AI could represent a market of $600 billion by 2030, a sizable chunk of the $1.3 trillion-$1.5 trillion in global AI spending it expected by 2030.

5. Uber launched a takeover bid for Delivery Hero on Thursday, giving the German firm a $14.8 billion equity value in a move that would create the largest food-delivery group outside China as competition with U.S. and European rivals ‌heats up. The acquisition advances the U.S. ride-hailing firm’s efforts to build a global food-delivery business as it faces intensifying competition from Just Eat, owned by Dutch group Prosus, and U.S. rival DoorDash… (Reuters)

During Goldman Sach’s (GS) earnings call, management noted that its investment banking “backlog increased to its highest level in 5 years and its second highest level on record, underpinned by a record advisory backlog.” Morgan Stanley said, “Large corporates are executing on their strategic objectives and the need for solutions and capital continues to grow and sponsor monetization is selectively gaining momentum.”

Companies, like Uber (UBER), looking to fill strategic, geographic, or technology gaps, points to a continuation of robust M&A activity. That keeps us bullish on the Portfolio’s bank positions as does the prospect for continued market volatility and the tailwind for their trading operations.

6. Anthropic PBC is seeking to meet with investors ahead of its potential mega-IPO, according to people familiar with the matter, as the company prepares to join the rush of artificial intelligence-driven stock market debuts. Banks leading the offering are scheduling meetings between investors and the Claude chatbot maker in the coming weeks… (Reuters)

This firms up the thinking that Anthropic is poised to IPO later this year, and reading between the lines it’s likely to be a September or later event. Anthropic submitted a confidential draft Form S-1 with the SEC on June 1, marking the first official step toward a its IPO. With Cerebras (CBRS) and now SpaceX (SPCX) falling below their IPO pricing levels, we suspect the company and the bankers will look for a steadying in the IPO market before bringing the shares to market. Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and JPMorgan (JPM) are reportedly leading the transaction, which bodes well for their investment banking fees in H2 2026.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (Weekly), Retail Sales (June), NY Fed Services Activity Index (July), Philly Fed Index (July), Business Inventories (May), NAHB Housing Market index (July), Pending Home Sales (June), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (Weekly).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Abbott Labs (ABT), GE Aerospace (GE), Manpower (MAN), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH). PM – Alcoa (AA), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Netflix (NFLX).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro was long AMAT, MS, MU, and NVDA.