Oil Up Again Ahead of Flash October Inflation Data: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a weak start to the final trading day of the week.

1. Iran’s message is stark: If the U.S. and Israel restart their air campaign, Tehran will respond with strikes not only on American bases and warships but on airports, pipelines and other civilian targets in the neighboring countries of the Persian Gulf. The warnings, issued publicly and in private diplomatic communications, are clearly aimed at deterring any attack with tough talk. But they also signal a real threat. Iran retains significant missile and drone stocks and the ability to use them. (WSJ)

Brent oil was trading at the highest level since May as attacks on Saudi Arabia intensified and the war with Iran remained unresolved. The global benchmark traded around $114 a barrel on Friday, up almost 4% this week, while West Texas Intermediate was above $100. Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed recent attacks on the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu, as well as deadly strikes on an oil field and airport in the kingdom. (Bloomberg)

Another leg up in oil prices on Friday morning is weighing on U.S. equity futures, but it’s the comment from President Trump’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, on the day that caught our attention. In the Financial Times, Waltz shared “the U.S. could still be mired in a stalemate with the Islamic republic a year from now.”

Since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, “duration” and what that means for inflation pressures has been a focal point for us at the Portfolio. Should we see a re-escalation following the U.S. midterm elections, the risk as Waltz points out above is higher energy prices for longer and what that means for consumers, company margins, and 2027 EPS expectations for individual companies and the S&P 500. We will continue to track potential developments and adjust the Pro Portfolio’s positioning as required.

2. Manufacturers reported a sharp and accelerated increase in input prices in October, often linked by respondents to higher costs for energy, fuel and transportation. The latest rise was the steepest since May and above the average for the year-to-date. (S&P Global)

Input cost inflation accelerated to its sharpest since June. Stronger inflationary pressures were mostly driven by a rapid rise in input prices across the manufacturing sector, which survey respondents attributed to higher energy, raw material and transportation costs. (S&P Global)

The first is from Friday morning’s Flash October PMI report for the eurozone and the second for the analogous report for the U.K. We’d argue the revelations on input pricing should not be much of a surprise if at all given what we’ve seen in energy and other commodity prices, and the growing number of management comments about input prices.

S&P Global (SPGI) will publish its Flash October PMI report for the U.S. at 9:45 a.m. ET, and we would be stunned if that report showed something different on input prices. The degree to which output prices tick up will point either to incremental consumer inflation pressure or point to headwinds for company margins and potential downside guidance for the current quarter. While the Flash report doesn’t carry as much weight as ISM’s Monthly PMI findings, as we review those learnings from S&P’s initial take on October, we’ll look to gauge the market’s reaction and potential implications for monetary policy via 10-year treasury yields and the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed officials are in their quiet period ahead of next week’s policy meeting.

Beyond inflation pressures, what S&P’s Flash findings say about the tone of the manufacturing economy is something we’ll be watching as it relates to this Portfolio holding.

3. American Express raised its profit forecast for 2026 on Friday after reporting strong third-quarter results as its affluent customers swiped their cards to pay for ‌travel, dining out and shopping. By targeting consumers with high credit scores and more disposable income, the credit card giant has built a moat around its business to keep broader economic slowdowns and uncertainty at bay. Billed business, a measure of total spending on all AmEx-issued cards, rose 8% in the third quarter ⁠to $454 billion. Revenue climbed 9% to $20.1 billion. Its shares were last up 0.8% in premarket trading after the company forecast an annual profit in the range $18.30 to $18.60 per share, compared with its prior expectation of between $17.30 and $17.90. (Reuters)

Once again, reports focus on the volume of spending on the cards issued by American Express (AXP), not the real driver of its profits and earnings — net card fees. For Q3 2026, net card fees climbed 16% year over year as the number of cards in force rose 2.8% but the average feed per card climbed more than 14%. This points to Amex’s continued success with its Platinum Card refresh and similar efforts with other cards. We’ll have more to say once we’ve digested Amex’s earnings call that begins before the market open.

4. SpaceX aims to secure a minimum of 80,000 cell sites across the US, and it’s in talks with at least one major cellular infrastructure company to reach that goal, according to people familiar with the matter. The agreements would solidify the rocket and satellite giant’s path toward building a fourth nationwide wireless carrier… (Bloomberg)

The pieces are coming together for SpaceX (SPCX) to eventually challenge AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) as well as others like Comcast (CMCSA) that offer not only wireless service but also broadband data. Our thinking is this will accelerate the competitive dynamics in that sector, most likely leading to aggressive pricing and multi-year contracts to lock in customers with stiff penalties if they cancel. As it relates to SpaceX, it will give us another valuation vector for the Starlink business, but we’ll need assess the impact of capacity in place, incremental capacity needed and what that means for margins should the effort be successful. In Q3 2026, SpaceX’s Connectivity segment, which houses Starlink, was responsible for 85% of reported income from operations.

5. OpenAI has cut its valuation target for its latest funding round after facing resistance on a $1.4tn price tag from some investors, as it pushes to raise $30bn before going public next year. The ChatGPT maker is in the final stages of a deal which is expected to value the company at $1.25tn, according to people with knowledge of the matter. That would be a jump of almost 50 per cent from its current $852bn valuation but is lower than the price pitched to investors earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter. (FT)

The lower valuation for OpenAI’s latest funding round, one that could be a final topping off before its eventual IPO, follows chatter for Anthropic’s IPO valuation between $1.5 trillion and $1.7 trillion versus the $2 trillion figure floated several months ago. While the Portfolio’s shed its position in Neostellar Capital (NSLR) shares over a month ago, the step up in OpenAI’s valuation would lead to Neostellar marking up its OpenAI position when it reports its Q4 2026 results.

We are also seeing reports that OpenAI will be “urgently advised” to move forward with its IPO following Anthropic’s offering that is expected to begin its roadshow around November 9 and price the transaction before the Thanksgiving holiday. The first part of that process would be for OpenAI to publicly file its S-1 with the SEC, a move that Anthropic could make as early as Friday.

But those two companies may not be the only two looking tap the equity markets…

6. Meta Platforms’ widely anticipated equity capital raise could come as early as the next few weeks as it seeks to get ahead of other tech companies that plan to sell stock… A Meta equity deal could total $40 billion or more as the company seeks to fund its AI buildout and reduce its reliance on debt financing… In its earnings release on Wednesday, Meta said it would create a new class of nonvoting shares so it could issue equity without diluting the holding of founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who has 60% voting control through nontraded super voting shares. His economic stake is about 14%. (Barron’s)

While Meta (META) shied away from discussing its 2027 capex plans, on the earnings call Mark Zuckerberg shared plans to build capacity to serve more than 1 billion Muse users over the next several years. In its 10-Q filing with the SEC on Thursday, Meta shared it had:

$454.52 billion of non-cancelable contractual commitments, comprising both short-term and long-term arrangements. These commitments mostly relate to third-party cloud capacity arrangements and investments in servers and network infrastructure, energy service agreements for data centers, and consumer hardware products in Reality Labs, with approximately $45.85 billion and $121.41 billion due in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

In addition, as of September 30, 2026, we have contingent obligations to purchase up to $14.72 billion of cloud capacity over a five-year period, which may be reduced if the cloud service provider is able to sell such capacity to other customers.

An equity deal of that magnitude mentioned above by Meta is another reason for the Portfolio to stay on the sidelines with META shares near-term even after their fall on Thursday.

The combination of two to three massive equity offerings between Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta in the coming months, should that come to pass, odds are it would be a drain on other securities and foster an even greater amount of tax loss selling. While that would weigh on already beaten down stocks, it also means there will be at least a few quality companies trading at extremely depressed stock prices.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: S&P Global Flash PMI (October), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (October).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – American Express (AXP), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Rogers Communications (RCI).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AXP and META.