Initial Jobless Claims’ Streak Hits First Since 1969
An average of initial claims fell to its lowest since September 2022 and one for continuing claims fell to its lowest since April 2023.
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- Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3rd: 197,000 (estimate 200,000; previous 197,000; revised previous 199,000)
- Continuing claims for the week ending September 26th: 1,716,000 (estimate 1,700,000; previous 1,701,000; revised previous 1,699,000).
After bottoming at 189,000 in mid-July — the lowest reading since 1969 — initial jobless claims have barely budged, this week easing 2,000 to 197,000 in the week through October 3rd (from a revised 199,000 the prior week). That keeps them below 200,000 for a fourth straight week for the first time since 1969, only the tenth week below 200,000 since then (all post-pandemic), leaving claims near cycle lows at the bottom of the relatively narrow range that has held since November 2021.
The four-week average fell 2,500 to 198,000 (roughly 29,500 lower year-over-year), the lowest since September 2022.
Continuing claims (seasonally adjusted) in the week through September 26th (one week lagged) rose 17,000 to 1,716,000 (after a 2,000 downward revision to the prior week), but only after hitting the least since March 2023 in the prior week and remaining at the bottom of the roughly 1.70 million to 2.0 million range that has held since mid-2023 — historically low, though not quite as low as initial claims.
The four-week average of continuing claims though fell 12,250 to 1,711,000, the lowest since April 2023, and remains lower year-over-year for a 35th straight week (down 211,750) — the largest such gap since December 2022 (second chart).
The 20-year pre-pandemic average for initial claims is 345,000 and continuing claims roughly 2.9 million.
