After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 1% above its one-month average  

– NASDAQ volume flat to its one-month average 

– VIX index: down 11.97% to 19.56

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

I have to leave early for a medical issue for a member of my family. 

Back in the morning.

Position: None  

Back short GRNY at $26.83 and JOET at $44.62.

Position: Short GRNY (VS), JOET (VS)

I just sold out my TLT at $85.87 for a quick profit.

From earlier in the day:

TLT Buy

I purchased TLT (TLT) at $85.18 in the belief that we have seen a short term peak in interest rates.

Positions: TLT M

BY Doug Kass · Jun 11, 2026, 9:12 AM EDT

Position: None 

The cost basis of my last index shorts (done with S&P cash +105 handles):

* SPY $736.04

* QQQ $711.09

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

I added to index shorts with S&P cash +105 handles.

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS).

Dougie Kass

The purchase of a large position in Microsoft by Ackman and others was an absolute disaster unless you don’t care about short term performance and lean back on and rationalize “forever” holdings (for which one can never be criticized, definitionally). 

Position: Long MSFT (S)

I am back shorting the indices with cash +84 handles:

* SPY $734.07
* QQQ  $709,23

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS) 

I sold MSFT and AMZN on the Iran news for a profit.

Position: None

Break in!

Trump cancels strikes in Iran.

Position: None

Earnings calendar after hours Thursday, June 11, 2026:

Position: None

I have two research calls at 12:45 and 1:30 today.

Radio silence.

Position: None 

I am back to market neutral.

Position: None  

I sold my SPY for a quick profit at $729.81.

From earlier:

SPY Buy

Buying SPY (SPY) at $725.45 on the Pentagon news.

Positions: Long SPY S

BY Doug Kass · Jun 11, 2026, 11:11 AM EDT

Position: None 

I added to AMZN at $236.74 and MSFT at $386.78

Position: Long AMZN (S), MSFT (S)

I have re-established longs in two tech stocks:

* AMZN  $236.90

* MSFT $388.39

Position: Long AMZN (S) MSFT (S)

Here is the CNN report:

Multiple Pentagon floors locked down, evacuated due to ‘hazardous materials incident’

Position: None

– NYSE volume 16% below its one-month average;  
– Nasdaq volume 8% below its one-month average;  
– VIX index: down 0.59% to 22.09

Positions: None.

With today’s SPY purchase I have moved from a net short position to a small net long position — for the first time in months. 

Position: Long SPY (S)

Buying SPY (SPY) at $725.45 on the Pentagon news.

Positions: Long SPY S

Market falling based on CNN report that the Pentagon has been locked down based on “air quality conditions.”

Positions: None 

My growing and largest cannabis holding, Verano (VRNO) Prepares for U.S. Stock Exchange Listing

Verano Completes 1-for-5 Reverse Stock Split, Advancing the

Position: Long VRNO m

From Peter Boockvar:

Stiff wholesale cost pressures/Claims lift/Rate tweak for now from ECB

When we include the downward revision in April for the heady PPI read, the May headline figure was as expected but showing a 2nd straight month of 1.1% wholesale price increases after a .7% gain in March and .6% gains in each of January and February. The y/o/y headline gain was 6.5%, up from 5.7% in April. The core rate was higher by .4% m/o/m after a .7% increase in the month before and which followed an .8% gain in January, .4% rise in February and .2% increase in March. Core wholesale prices are up by 4.9% for a 2nd month y/o/y. Energy prices as expected were higher by 10.7% m/o/m and 37% y/o/y. Food prices gained another .6% m/o/m and 2.6% y/o/y.

Core goods prices were up .8% m/o/m and by 5.1% y/o/y with plastic resins and industrial chemicals leading this ex food and energy category.

On the services side, prices were up .3% m/o/m and by 4.9% y/o/y and higher asset prices were a factor. The BLS said “Over 40% of the May advance in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 4.8% rise in prices for portfolio management.” That follows a 2.3% drop in April. Of course though, there are other things like higher prices for truck transportation of freight (up 3.4% m/o/m and 17.3% y/o/y), air transportation of freight (up .5% m/o/m and 5.7% y/o/y) chemicals and allied products wholesaling (up 6% m/o/m and 16.4% y/o/y), food wholesaling and airline passenger services. Prices fell for machinery/equipment wholesaling and real estate loans.

Bottom line, strength in goods prices ex food and energy, drove the higher core rate while the obvious sharply lifted the headline. Those rising transportation costs also flows through to every business that has to stock stuff on the shelves, both goods producers and service providers and whether at the intermediate stage of the supply chain or final stage. We now have a more complete picture of the US inflation situation with the main question right now being who will have to absorb the widespread cost pressures. Stretching out the US Treasury market reaction from 8:29am est yesterday, 2s, 10s and 30s are about unchanged but with the 2 yr holding above 4.10%, the 10 yr above 4.50% and the 30 yr yield more than 5%. Inflation breakevens are little changed too with most of the recent rise in interest rates being more on the REAL side.

Headline PPI y/o/y

Core PPI y/o/y

Initial jobless claims rose 4k w/o/w to 229k and that was 9k more than anticipated. This brings up the 4 week average to 219k from 215k and while still low, is the most since February. Continuing claims rose by 24k to 1.795mm which is a 7 week high but still below the 1.9mm ish that we saw last year.

While an uptick was seen in claims relative to expectations for the 2nd week, overall the data, as measured here (not including those that take gig jobs when they get laid off and/or those that receive severance), reflects a modest pace of firing’s. With continuing claims, the drop off from the highs is likely a mix of people finding new jobs and for some, claims that are expiring as there has been a rise in the time it’s taking in finding a job as seen with last week’s payroll report.

4 week avg Initial Claims

Continuing Claims

As fully expected, the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% from 2.00%. While they have chosen to not look past the higher oil price shock, they also previously took its rate down to zero on a REAL basis which was already quite aggressive.

In their statement they said “The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.” Stating the obvious right now.

What they do next we await to see if Lagarde hints at it but for now I view this hike more of a tweak rather than beginning of a fresh rate hiking cycle until we see how things further play out from here. The euro is little changed as no surprises yet and European yields remain lower on the day.

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

A price war coming?/Oracle’s spend, Casey’s customer and more/Shipping costs/BoC

A highly capital heavy business with little pricing power typically creates a lower margin business and likely subject to commoditization. The biggest beneficiary is usually the customer. That is what I thought when I read this article today in the WSJ titled “OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic…The company might lower prices for tokens, the central unit for gauging AI costs, though the discussions are still in flux…The move would be in anticipation of similar cuts the company expects at Anthropic, the people said.”

https://www.wsj.com/tech

We know the CapEx costs are astonishing and they keep getting ever more so. Oracle, who just finished its FY ‘26 ended up spending $55.66 on CapEx (net cash outlay of $48 billion and $8 billion of customer prepayments), a whopping 83% of FY ‘26 revenue. In FY ‘22, before all this spending started, it was 10%. For FY ‘27, they expect to spend $90 billion which is 100% of expected revenue but they say they’ll cover $70 billion of that and $20 billion will come from customer prepayments. That’s up from the prior estimate of $67.6 billion.

On their huge $638 billion of remaining performance obligations, “we expect 12% to be recognized in the next 12 months and another 34% between 13 and 36 months. And these percentages are both expected to accelerate over the coming quarters based on our current long-term outlook.”

And this is the crux and reasoning for the massive bet the company is making, “We’re on the front end of one of the most interesting times in the technology business. Our customers are now focused on how to leverage AI to interrupt businesses. They want AI to increase productivity, enhance customer service, and create real competitive advantages. So they want to do it quickly and within their existing budget envelope. Oracle’s unique advantage is that we deliver the applications, the data, the infrastructure, the AI tooling, and the industry expertise together. That combination invariably puts us at the center of customer conversations, whether they’re existing Oracle customers or not. And our customers have moved past the experiment stage with AI. They are ready to implement enterprise grade complete agentic solutions to help run their businesses.”

And to help close their cash flow and large funding gaps, “we expect to raise around $40 billion in debt and equity in our fiscal year ‘27, and that includes our already announced $20 billion at the market equity issuance. We don’t anticipate raising additional debt funding in calendar year 2026.” Their long term debt two years ago was $82.5 billion including lease liabilities and with the quarter just ended that figure is now $149 billion.

Selling pizza, gasoline and beef jerky, among many other things, is not quite the excitement of producing cloud infrastructure or high bandwidth memory semiconductors but Casey’s General Store does it really well and its stock jumped 20% yesterday after earnings. They said this of note:

“Whole pizzas and non-alcoholic beverages helped drive the strong results during the year.” They had a big quarter selling Monster energy drinks with a red, white and blue Razz flavor to celebrate America’s 250. They are also doing big business selling nicotine alternatives to cigarettes and I’m sure a lot of Zyn pouches. We are long Philip Morris International.

And high level, “So with respect to the consumer, I would say overall, I think consumers are hanging in there. They’re probably being a little more discerning about where they shop and how they spend their money. But we’re seeing growth across all of the income cohorts. And the way we look at that is below $50,000 a year in income is a low income, $50,000 to $100,000 a year is mid and above $100,000 is higher income. And I’d say that all three, we’re seeing growth, a little bit less so in the lower income. The other two cohorts, which is three quarters of our guest base, are spending comparably to what they’ve been spending on.”

“In terms of specific behaviors, we’re not seeing a lot of change on the inside of the store. We are seeing some change in fuel, but it’s very minor. And it’s all the things that we always talk about. If fuel prices get high, we start to see premium sales dip a little bit. We see sales of ethanol blended fuel go up because it’s a little cheaper. We see gallons per transaction drop a little bit. We see fuel transactions themselves go up because people are coming more frequently. So all of those dynamics are happening right now, but in low single digit percentages. So this is kind of very nuanced behaviors.”

Remember that in the quarter before, right after the war started and the average gallon of gasoline was still in the 3s, Casey’s thought $5 per gallon is where you would see demand destruction.

From Chewy and whose stock fell 2% yesterday:

They mentioned that the consumer environment “weakened in the latter parts of the quarter” but still grew sales 7.7% y/o/y.

“Pet remains a resilient category driven by recurring non-discretionary needs and strong emotional attachment. At the same time, consumers are growing more discerning, driven in part by elevated fuel prices and broader macroeconomic pressures.”

“we are seeing a modest level of incremental pressure on premiumization and product attach rates amongst our current customer base…We no longer believe it is prudent to embed a meaningful acceleration in consumer spending into our outlook, given the current operating environment.”

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store has been trying to recover from its rebranding fiasco last year and its stock popped 23% yesterday. From them:

Customers are coming back and “our Google Start rating increased 4%, reaching its highest quarterly score since 2018, while our food taste and service scores rose 5% and food temperature scores increased 7%.”

They are also benefiting from having a lower average check size relative to the industry. “In Q3, our average check was $15.85 compared to over $27 in casual dining and over $19 in family dining, underscoring our lower prices versus competitors. In fact, guests can order add-ons with us and their check will still be lower than an entree at many of our peers.”

Business still fell in the quarter, with comps down 2.6%, “which included a traffic decline of 6.7%. Although traffic remained negative, we are encouraged by the gradual improvement in the underlying traffic trend. The restaurant average check increased 4.3%, including pricing of 4.4%.”

We’ve heard in many of the global manufacturing PMI’s and from some companies that a factor in the improvement in manufacturing has been the pull forward of ordering ahead of expected price increases and/or possible supply issues. MMM spoke at a conference yesterday and talked about this in response to a question with respect to their pick up order rates:

“So, basically, yes. So, what happened is we typically go out with price increases on April 1. And what was happening in the Middle East we saw oil prices coming up. So, we went out with additional price increases on top of what was April 1. And we said, based on our performance, the innovation, on-time delivery, our responsiveness into the channel, we believe our ability to drive price is a lot better. And so we’re going to hold a line on that.”

And the response, “So, naturally we thought we would see some acceleration of orders. It was probably some of that. But, given the momentum we saw in April, in May, and now into June on orders, there might have been some pre-buy. But, predominantly, it is innovation driven, commercial excellence driven, and probably less so on the pre-buy.”

They are certainly seeing business strength that is macro driven, “like semis are good. Our data center business has been pretty good. Aerospace and defense has been pretty good. Commercial branding in Q1 was pretty good.”

Where there is some pressure, “around consumer electronics, auto, a little less so on the US consumer.”

Shifting to some general macro.

Container shipping rates continue to rise and we’re seeing a general increase in freight transportation as I’ve also highlighted, particularly with trucking. The Shanghai to NY average 40 foot container price jumped by another 6.6% to $5,870, the highest in a year. Shanghai to LA saw its price up by 2.6% w/o/w to $4,683 after spiking by 31% last week. The Shanghai to Rotterdam route rose to the most expensive since January 2025.

Shanghai to NY

Speaking yesterday, the Bank of Canada Governor in his presser distilled the box central bankers are in quite succinctly. Tiff Macklem said “Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for monetary policy. Raising rates to dampen inflation could further slow the economy. Easing rates to support growth increases the risk that higher inflation becomes persistent. For now, holding the policy rate unchanged balances those risks.”

The end result yesterday with the market response was no change in FX and yields but today yields are down with the European and US slight drop in yields and the Canadian dollar is down slightly on the week.

Positions: None.

Upside:

-VRA +30% (earnings, guidance)

-NAVN +19% (earnings, guidance)

-ELVN +12% (presents positive updated Phase 1 ENABLE data for ELVN-001 in previously treated CML)

-TROX +9.0% (hearing Truist Raised TROX to Hold from Sell, price target: $7)

-CPNG +6.9% (South Korea announces fine for data breach)

-DRVN +6.8% (earnings, guidance)

-VOYG +5.7% (BTIG Initiates VOYG with Buy, price target: $55)

-DXC +4.8% (announces multi-year global partnership with Anthropic)

-VSAT +4.6% (awarded US Space Force Swarm 1 Delivery Order under PTS-G program)

-MRVL +4.5% (semi sector strength)

-INTC +4.2% (Tier1 firm Raised INTC to Buy from Underperform, price target: $135 from $96)

-OKLO +2.9% (receives DOE approval of PDSA for Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory)

-ETN +2.8% (separates Mobility Group and combines it with Dana in Reverse Morris Trust)

-ASML +2.7% (semi sector strength)

-HSIC +2.3% (BTIG Raised HSIC to Buy from Neutral, price target: $100)

Downside:

-PPBT -21% (presents preclinical IM1240 data at EACR 2026)

-PCT -17% (prices $250M 4.75% convertible senior notes due 2032)

-ORCL -11% (earnings, guidance)

-DAN -7.0% (ETN separates Mobility Group and combines it with Dana in Reverse Morris Trust)

-MH -7.0% (earnings, guidance)

Positions: None.

I purchased TLT (TLT) at $85.18 in the belief that we have seen a short term peak in interest rates.

Positions: TLT M

Positions: None.

This Truth Social Post caused the small sell off from the morning’s highs:

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Treasury Auctions

11:00 a.m.: Treasury announces a 3 and 6 month and a 13-Week bill auction;

11:00 a.m.: TIPS and bond announcement; 

11:30 a.m.; Treasury hosts a $70B 4 and a $75B 8 Week Bill Auction; 

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $22B 30-Year Bond Auction; 

2:00 p.m.: Treasury buyback (cash mgmt)

Economic Calendar

Positions: none.

douglas cassel

Appeals to authority have limitation, but Terry Tao is arguably one of the smartest people on earth. He is a bit more sanguine about AI than many here.  I would also suggest that computer intelligence is fundamentally different than other technological advances. The possibility of a virtuous feedback loop, where intelligent systems improve themselves, might mean advances far faster than prior epochs. 

How Terry Tao Became an Evangelist for AI in Math

Dougie Kass

I view my role as to offer up potential conflicts and headwinds in AI and its adoption – as 98% of Wall Street and nearly all “talking heads”/investors deliver an upbeat narrative witih few detours.

I basically see numerous possible adoption, implementation, content and profitability outcomes – some of them adverse (that are being given very little weight by the investment community).

From there, I believe subscribers can better consider and evaluate the merits of the companies involved in AI.

This is why I have written 200 “More Tales From Nvidia” – which seems to be lost by some who are hostile to my series and comment in this section, ironically not with their own research but by quoting ChatGPT, Grok or other AI modes/sources.

Position: None

* A core point of mine and a foundational part of bear case for equities…

phogan

When looking at areas like the semis and other parabolic stocks with presumably bright growth prospects, I always think of the following:  “In the case of Microsoft in 1999, it mostly delivered on its promise of success, compiling an impressive record of nearly 15% annualized earnings growth over the next 16 years. However, investors buying its shares in 1999 would have spent the entire 16 years nursing an ugly and altogether frustrating loss.”  MSFT was just under 30x sales in 1999 and grew EPS almost 15% for 16 years yet all you did was break even.  At some point, the weighing machine matters.  I applaud those who hit it big with these, but its the going forward that would scare the crap out of me.

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved back into oversold territory at -0.61 % vs. 0.24%.

Position: None