Thanks to everyone for reading my Diary today.

Have a wonderful July 4th weekend with your families.

Be safe.

Position: None

Maxxing Out

Position: Long AMZN (VS), MSFT (VS), GOOGL (VS); Short CRWV (VS)

I covered the balance of my SPY short at $740.35 for a sizeable gain.

Position: None

From Randorama:

Randy

PepsiCo’s(PEP) efforts to reinvigorate top line growth in North America showed some initial signs of progress, but trends came under pressure for most of May and into early June, UBS Securities said in a note Wednesday.

It is unlikely that PepsiCo Foods North America could return to historical growth rates, the brokerage said. While the negative investor sentiment is not surprising, UBS said the argument that PepsiCo(PEP) should trade closer to other packaged food peers is overblown, as the company still has a credible path to delivering organic revenue and earnings growth.

The brokerage lowered its Q2 and 2026 earnings per growth forecasts to $2.18 and $8.56 respectively, from $2.21 and $8.60, to reflect weaker performance in PFNA, as well as shifts in commodities and currency.

Despite weaker consumption, analysts said the base case expectation is for PepsiCo(PEP) to maintain its 2026 guidance when it reports its Q2 results on July 9.

UBS Securities lowered its price target on the stock to $172 from $186, while keeping a buy rating.

Position: Long PEP (S)

With the whoosh lower in speculative tech, I am covering more of my high-beta, high-tech short basket. I am now down to tag ends:

* AMD $514.27 (-$27)

* MU $973.71 (-$59)

* INTC $120.05 (-$7)

* SNDK $1766 (-$267)

* AMAT $591.21 (-$60)

* CAT $963.52 (-$28)

* CRWV $81.20 (-$4.50) 

Position: Short all of the above (VS)

PEP, PG and KMB are getting jiggy.

Position: Long PEP (S), PG (S), KMB (VS)

I’m moving back from medium-sized to small-sized short SPY:

* Covered at $744.21

From earlier today:

SPY Short, a Size Up

I have moved to medium-sized short (SPY) at $751.01

Positions: Short SPY M

BY Doug Kass · Jul 2, 2026, 10:05 AM EDT

Position: Short SPY (S)

I covered some more of my high-beta, high-tech short basket:

* SNDK $1795  (-$236)

* AMD $517.13 (-$23)

* AMAT $600.25 (-$51)

* MU $997.19 (-$35)

* INTC  $122.90  (-$4)

Position: Short SNDK (VS), AMD (VS), AMAT (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS)

Given my rising confidence level, I stepped up and added to MSOS just now at $4.86.

Position: Long MSOS (S)

JSR1111

15m ago

I’ve seen a lot of comments on the weak breadth of the market in recent months.  Does the recent rally in RSP and other broader incdices get anyone less bearish?  And while rates are at the mid-to-higher end of the recent range, I get the same sense that bears notice rates rising but not when they stabilize/ebb.ReplyShare

Dougie Kass

just now

good question

to me its more of a momentum trade now, than a statement trade (suggesting a further broadening)

it could be short lived

Positions: None 

I am now short C (C) and JPM (JPM) against my private equity longs (BX), (KKR) and (APOL)

Positions: Long BX S KKR S APOL S; Short C S JPM S.

 I have taken in some of my SNDK and MU shorts:

* SNDK (SNDK) $1889 (-$141)

* MU (MU) $1008.50 (-$24)

Positions: Short SNDK VS MU VS

I added to my GRNY (GRNY) short at $27.88.

Positions: Short GRNY M

Ed Ziron, whom I often quote, is on CNBC now.

Positions: None.

Added to private equity longs – all of them are a couple off the intraday highs:

* BX (BX) $121.64

*KKR (KKR) $94.26

*APO (APO) $118.95

Positions: Long BX S KKR S APO S

I have moved to medium-sized short (SPY) at $751.01

Positions: Short SPY M

With S&P cash +43 handles I am adding back to what I covered much lower last night – and moving from very small sized to small sized:

*SPY (SPY) $749.82

Positions: Short SPY S 

This question was regarding my private equity buys on Friday:

tomjrosen
49m ago

Hi Doug,

Thanks for all the useful information and education day in and day out. I would love to know based on your recent investment starter in private credit, what do you think about the growing number of redemption requests/denials that have been going on in the sector-is it not a reason to be concerned about for the quarters to come? Thanks🙏

ReplyShare

Dougie Kass
31m ago

the redemptions reflect sentiment/emotion more than portfolio deterioration

those redemptions have brought down the stocks to reasonable entry points

i am taking a starter position then i will monitor their portfolios’s progress

ReplyShare

Positions: Long APO, BX, KKR

Jaw4860
17m ago

Maxim #1 Why don’t you like annual targets ?RE : yesterday post .

ReplyShare

D

Dougie Kass
1m ago

the end of year is a made up point of time

to guess on price on a date in an increasingly volatile backdrop and setting of rapid rotations is a fool’s errand that implies a sense of precision impossible to achieve

it is a question, not surprisingly,  asked on fin tv in which a complicated mosaic is reduced to a overly simplistic condition.- to appeal to viewers.

price targets should be in ranges and presented based on pessimistic, base case and optimistic assumptions – and to then attach probabilities associated to each scenario

I watched no fewer than 10 confident money managers herald the future of regional bank stocks on CNBC yesterday.

Here is an alternative view:

Extend And Pretend Eventually Comes To An End

Position: None 

There were two important observations regarding sector movements on Wednesday, including the obviously large-sized drop in memory and chip stocks (We are short many of these in our High-Beta Tech Short Basket).

But less obvious (apologies to The Princess Bride’s Vizzini) was the drop in Walmart’s (WMT) share price:

Walmart Inc. (WMT)

108.82-4.44 (-3.92%)

At close: July 1 at 4:00:01 PM EDT

109.52+0.70(+0.64%)

The consumer is spent up, not pent up.

Position: Short High-Beta Tech Basket

From Charlie!

The Week in Charts (7/1/26) – Charlie Bilello’s Blog

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains slightly overbought at 1.58% vs. 1.34%.  

It’s been range bound for weeks around this level.

I covered some of my SPY on futures weakness (-22 handles) last night.  

Moved from medium sized to very small sized.

Position: Short SPY (VS)