Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 15% below its one-month average; 

– NASDAQ volume 11% below its one-month average;

– VIX index: down 5.69% to 14.41

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

As I mentioned yesterday, a golfing pal that I am very close to unexpectedly passed on Thursday.

And, astonishingly in the the last 48 hours there has been two additional and unimaginable tragedies of two young people who were part of dear friends’ families.

Of course I am speechless and full of grief. 

I will not be writing on Thursday or Friday as I will be attending some services for those who have passed away.

Fortunately on Thursday and Friday you all will be in the hands of the greatest reliever of all time.

Of course it’s not Mariano Rivera (as he has retired!) — its the estimable Sarge who will have a bunch of fast balls for all of you!!!!

Positions: None.

Wolf Street howls about the compositon of the CPI:

“CPI Dragged Down by Energy, Hotels & Motels (Shelter), Auto Insurance, and Meat (Finally)“

Positions: None.

Energy (XLE) vs Financials (XLF) ; Tech (XLK) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY) as of 2:45 p.m.:

Bond prices at the day’s lows and bond yields at the day’s highs.

Again. 

(TLT) not down on the day.

Positions: None.

After the Close Earnings Calendar for August 12, 2026 Sorted by $ Market Cap

Source: TipRanks

I have been shorting on a scale higher today:

* (SPY) $773.14

* (QQQ) $725.21

Positions: Short SPY (M), QQQ (S)

I continue to add to (PEP) ($137.02).

Positions: Long PEP (M)

Volume

– NYSE volume 10% below its one-month average; 

– NASDAQ volume 7% below its one-month average; 

– VIX index: down 2.75% to 14.86

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors ETFs

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

The following is from Peter Boockvar:

The wide reach of this buildout/Earnings of note/Some other commodities to watch

Reflecting the broad economic reach of the GenAI CapEx binge, it is trickling down in so many places. I missed this line in the NFIB Small Business Optimism index press release and h/t SE for pointing it out. They said “Capital investments have been driving economic growth, primarily AI investments in chips and structures to house them in. Although this is not primarily a small-firm activity, it looks like spillover business opportunities are reaching them.”

Speaking of AI CapEx, Coreweave is higher post earnings even though they burned $5.7b in free cash in Q2 vs $4.7b in Q1 and $2.5b in Q4 ‘25. The expected free cash loss will be another $8.8b in Q3 with an estimated trimming of that for Q4 this year to -$6.2b. I see them as nothing more than an equipment leasing company but of course seeing a lot of demand right now for what they are offering.

They said this of note:

“We continued to execute on our power strategy, reaching 1.5 gigawatts of active power, adding nearly 500 megawatts more than any quarter in our history and more than tripling y/o/y. We remain firmly on track to reach at least 8 gigawatts by 2030.” For reference Doc Brown needed 1.21 gigawatts to send the DeLorean back in time.

“The debate around future demand for AI cloud infrastructure will likely continue, but what we know with certainty is informed by our customers’ actions. Demand continues to intensify as the market broadens across sectors, geographies, workloads and generations of GPU architecture. AI is no longer confined to frontier model labs. It is becoming embedded in software, industrial systems, financial markets, enterprise workflows and national security missions.”

“Pricing and margins for our Blackwell and Vera Rubin SKUs are setting new highs, while pricing for prior generation SKUs is at or above where it was years ago. Our near term capacity remains effectively sold out. That is translating into signed commitments on increasingly favorable terms from a broadening set of customer and is positioning CoreWeave to gain market share for years to come.”

You want to see some inflation? They also said, their “operating margin improvement came before our July pricing changes, which included an approximately 25% increase across SKUs in response to the current demand environment…We are also passing through component price increases.” Of course though their lessees are immune to that right now.

By the way, after Nvidia clarified the extent of its financial exposure to the MOU announced a few days ago, its 5 yr CDS fell 4 bps to 73.4 after rising by 5.5 bps in the day before.

Shifting to the consumer and the disappointing On Holdings results that saw its stock fall by 20% yesterday because results missed expectations:

“the sell-out of some of our everyday running franchises tracked below our ambitions in a highly promotional multi-brand marketplace, particularly in the Americas.”

From Cava, jumping 12% pre-market as comps rose 9% vs the estimate of 7.5%:

That comp was “driven by 5.3% traffic” and the balance with price, up 3.7%. They are benefiting from the healthy eating of mediterranean food and the growing demand for protein.

They saw wage growth for employees up by 3%.

“Earlier last month, concerns surrounding the Cyclospora outbreak impacted same restaurant sales. Those trends moderated meaningfully, though remained flat to positive. Peformance improved sequentially each week and most recently as concerns around the broader impact of the Cyclospora outbreak has begun to ease, our same restaurant sales performance has recovered to mid-single digits.”

“Our maintained full-year outlook incorporates the impact experienced to date as well as a prudent assumption regarding the duration of any remaining pressure, along with the macroeconomic and geopolitical fluidity.”

And finally this was interesting, “As we look at the income cohorts, we take every restaurant and stratify them based on the median household income in their market. And we are again seeing that the lower income cohorts are generating the highest same restaurant sales results.”

You’ve heard me express my bullish and long stance on commodities. I wanted to pinpoint a few specifically outside of my usual gold and energy (including uranium) positions. I’ll highlight platinum (we own they physical via an ETF) with 40% exposure of its demand exposed to autos (unlike palladium where it’s as big as 80%). Hybrid vehicles right now are winning the market share war vs EVs. In case you didn’t see, Bloomberg Businessweek had an article out a few days ago titled “Hybrid cars are hot again worldwide while EV sales slow sharply.”

The average hybrid uses about 5 grams of platinum vs about 4 for an internal combustion vehicle. Why? According to my friends at Goehring & Rozencwajg, “Catalytic converters operate best at high temperatures. In a traditional ICE vehicle, the engine runs continously, allowing the converter to reach and maintain those optimal temperatures. In a hybrid, the engine cycles on and off, which causes the catalytic converter to run cooler and less efficiently. To compensate, automakers must increase the loading of platinum group metals – sometimes by as much as a full additional gram per vehicle.”

According to the World Platinum Investment Council, the demand for platinum is expected to exceed supply in 2026 for the 4th straight year.

I’m also positive and long fertilizer stocks as a play on expected higher crop prices, believing that an ag bull market is to come, following precious metals, industrial metals and energy. Said by Mosaic last week, a stock we own and a producer of phosphate and potash:

“We believe global phosphate production will fall well short of last year by up to 30 million tons. With last year’s low application rates, especially in the US, and limited fertilizer availability this year, crop yields will suffer, which could lead to food security challenges around the world in the near term. We are already seeing evidence of challenges. In Brazil, for example, despite significant acreage expansion, total crop production forecasts for the year have not kept up, suggesting significant yield impacts. Another season of under application will only exacerbate the problem.”

“Only recently have crop prices begun to acknowledge the reality of production challenges around the world. In the past month, major ag commodity prices have moved up, providing some relief from high input costs for the world’s farmers. The outlook for farm incomes is improving, which should be a catalyst for fertilizer demand.”

Positions: None.

Added to index shorts at:

* SPY (SPY) $772.91
* QQQ (QQQ) $725.23

Positions: Short SPY M QQQ S

I have covered my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) short (down another six beaners today) at $511.12 for a +$20/share gain in three trading sessions.

Positions: None.

From Neil The Real Deal:

nsethi9999

11m ago

JPM’s scenario analysis for the CPI print (quite the narrow ranges):

Core m/m >0.3% (5% chance): SPX down 1.5 to 2.5%

Core 0.25 to .3% (25% chance): SPX down 0.5 to 1.25%

Core 0.2 to 0.25% (40% chance): SPX up 0.25 to 0.75%

Core 0.15 to .2% (25% chance): SPX up 0.5 to 1%

Core <0.15% (5% chance): SPX up 1-2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/how-the-market-may-react-to-julys-cpi-report-according-to-jpmorgan.htm

The following is from Peter Boockvar:

The consumer inflation rundown

The July CPI rose .1% headline and .2% core, exactly as predicted with y/o/y gains of 3.4% and 2.5% vs 3.5% and 2.6% in the month before.

I’m a bit confused though with the energy calculation. The BLS said gasoline prices fell 2.9% m/o/m. According to AAA, gasoline rose by 6.6% in July while diesel was up by 11%. With respect to electricity prices and of course now a big focus, they were up by .1% m/o/m and 4.2% y/o/y.

Food prices were higher by .1% m/o/m and 3% y/o/y with again ‘food away from home’ seeing the bigger price gains. They rose .3% m/o/m and 3.4% y/o/y. ‘Food at home’ prices were down .1% m/o/m though up 2.7% y/o/y. The price of meats in particular finally fell m/o/m but still up 5.4% y/o/y. Egg prices on the other hand are down about 25% y/o/y.

Services inflation ex energy was up .2% m/o/m and 3% y/o/y and continues to be the main driver of inflation, still. Owners’ Equivalent Rent, the biggest component, saw prices up by .3% m/o/m and 3.2% y/o/y. Rent of Primary Residence was up .3% m/o/m too and by 2.9% y/o/y, getting close to the on the ground reality where coastal rental gains are offsetting the softness in the sunbelt.

Medical care costs rebounded by .4% m/o/m and were up by 1.7% y/o/y even as the ‘health insurance’ category is no where close to calculating the actual costs because of its methodology. The BLS said ‘health insurance’ prices fell .2% m/o/m and down by 8% y/o/y. Huh?

Airline fares continue to jump, up another 2.2% in the month alone and by 25.5% y/o/y. Offsetting this was the cost of arrival with hotel prices down 3.3% m/o/m but still up 2.8% y/o/y. The cost of fixing a vehicle continues to see inflation with prices up by .6% m/o/m and 6.6% y/o/y. Auto insurance prices continued to cool, down .3% m/o/m and by 4.5% y/o/y.

On the core goods side, prices were up by .2% m/o/m and .8% y/o/y. Used car prices were a factor, up by .4% m/o/m, though down 1.9% y/o/y. New car prices were up .1% m/o/m and by .5% y/o/y. Apparel costs were up .1% m/o/m and 3.9% y/o/y as we approach back to school. The prices of home related stuff rose .1% m/o/m and .8% y/o/y.

Thanks to ever rising memory and component costs, ‘personal computers and peripheral equipment’ saw prices jump by 3.5% in the month, and up by 3.9% y/o/y. For ‘computer software’, prices were higher by .5% m/o/m and by 21.2% y/o/y.

Bottom line, no real surprises and bond yields didn’t move much in response. Neither did inflation breakevens, which remain subdued. I’ll repeat my belief again that tomorrow’s PPI, combined with CPI, will give the more complete inflation picture because just because some inflation can’t be passed on to the consumer doesn’t mean it disappeared.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Upside

– HYLN +23.0% (Q2 revenue beat estimates while EPS was in line)

– DFTX +19.5% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; Phase 3 Voyage GAD readout is expected this week)

– CRWV +18.5% (Q2 revenue and adjusted loss beat; FY26 revenue and capex forecasts raised as backlog reached about $104B)

– VELO +16.5% (Q2 revenue rose 52% as management said the company is entering a new growth phase)

– NRGV +15.0% (Q2 revenue beat; FY26 revenue and gross-margin guidance raised)

– VLN +13.5% (Q2 revenue beat, Q3 outlook issued and FY26 guidance raised)

– TII +12.5% (Q2 top-line beat; FY26 outlook reaffirmed)

– CAVA +12.5% (Q2 revenue and EPS beat, comparable sales topped expectations and FY outlook was maintained)

– HRB +12.0% (Q4 beat, strong FY27 outlook and dividend raised 9.5%)

– WYFI +11.5% (Q2 revenue and EPS beat expectations, helped by HPC growth)

– SMWB +9.5% (Q2 beat top- and bottom-line expectations and FY26 outlook was raised)

– NBIS +9.5%, APLD +6.5%, IREN +6.0%, CORZ +6.0%, CIFR +5.0% (AI/data-center infrastructure names rise after CoreWeave’s strong results and higher capex outlook)

– LITE +8.5% (fiscal Q4 revenue and adjusted EPS beat, with Q1 FY27 outlook above expectations on AI optics demand)

– SMCI +8.5% (strong quarterly results and FY27 revenue outlook of $65B-$72B)

– NOK +7.5% (read-through from CoreWeave results and capex raise; Nokia supplies CoreWeave’s IP and optical networking backbone)

– AXTI +6.5% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; unusually large high-volume premarket move)

– COHR +6.0%, SNDK +4.0%, MRVL +3.0%, GLW +3.0% (AI hardware, optics and storage names rise in sympathy after CoreWeave, Super Micro and Lumentum results)

– GLBE +5.0% (Q2 revenue and EPS beat expectations)

– HTZ +5.0% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; high-volume continuation of the recent post-earnings short squeeze)

– SKHY +3.5% (US ADR rises alongside Korean semiconductor strength and AI-memory optimism)

– MU +2.0% (semiconductor and AI-memory stocks participate in the broader AI infrastructure rally)

Downside

– UAMY -16.5% (Q2 revenue missed and outlook was cut)

– OCTV -14.5% (Q2 revenue fell 4% YoY and GAAP results included a roughly $2.0B net loss despite an adjusted earnings beat)

– MIST -11.0% (Q2 revenue and EPS missed expectations)

– HUMA -9.5% (Q2 EPS loss was wider than expected and revenue missed estimates)

– ABSI -9.0% (Q2 revenue and EPS both missed expectations)

– BORR -9.0% (Q2 revenue and EPS missed sharply, with adjusted EBITDA falling sequentially)

– GTX -8.5% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; unusually large premarket move in a liquid mid-cap)

– ABCL -7.5% (announced a $200M share offering following the recent rally)

– NBIX -6.0% (safety concerns linked to Vykat XR resurfaced)

Positions: None.

Auctions

11:30 a.m. Treasury hosts a $72B 17-Week Bill Auction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $42B 10-Year Note Auction;

Economic Calendar

Positions: None.

Knowledge@Wharton – How Trust Shapes Retirement Security.  How Trust Shapes Retirement Security – Knowledge at Wharton

Positions: None.

Wolf Street howls about how American consumers are handling their debts.  Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Collections & Bankruptcies in Q2 2026 | Wolf Street

Positions: None.

Jim F

15h ago

Is AI FOMO dying? 

Early financing came from PE firms buying equity. With OpenA and Anthropic latest private raises at $800B and $850B respectively it’s getting harder to pitch huge upside in exchange for lack of liquidity. We know because both companies are looking to IPO. Something they wouldn’t do if they could still access private capital markets at higher valuations.

This leaves debt markets. Here I’ve been reading about frictions as well. Recent article about a coreweave project that the banks wouldn’t fund because the end tenet was OpenAi. The banks didn’t feel their revenues were sufficient to back the debt. Last week I read a Bloomburg article about debt backed by Ai infrastructure is getting more expensive. Spreads over SOFR have risen 100 bps over the last year. They even referenced a recent deal where the rate had to be increased mid deal to attract enough demand. Now you have the most concerning evidence yesterday. This dog and pony show around this $500B MOU with NVDIA and some big wall street firms. First off it’s a non-binding MOU. It’s basically Blackrock saying if NVDIA needs a sales desk to push Ai debt we are willing to participate. Ok so you’re saying as a company that makes its money selling financial products. You would be willing to sell financial products if the deal is right. Ok great, thanks. Even worse CEO’s of all these companies came on CNBC to push a narrative that compute is now a huge and important “asset class”. This feels like those making money off this buildout are having increased resistance from investors that used to say AI, sure I’m in! that’s before they even heard anything more than it’s Ai.

FOMO is great when the product is scarce. That’s not the case anymore. Now it’s hard not to be overweight Ai. SPY’s and Q’s are overweight Ai. Caterpillar is even overweight AI buildout. Doesn’t mean the ride is over but it means those that once feared under exposure are now thinking about overexposure. 

stockrenter

15h ago

Lots of good points you make , and yes Investors arent as willing to open their wallets at the rate we saw last year / earlier this year as supply has increased & there is a bit too much leverage creeping in on the entire AI sector .

Duly noted  as we go thru the maturation process of AI 

Its not as clean of a story as it used to be.

NVDA 5YearCDS jumped by almost 6bps.

phogan

14h ago

Excellent points!

Positions: None

Shorted more of the indexes:

* SPY (SPY) $771.88
* QQQ (QQQ) $711.72

Positions; Short SPY M QQQ S

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved into less overbought at 1.73% vs. 2.37%

Position; Short SPY M QQQ S