After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 1% below its one-month average  
– NASDAQ volume 8% below its one-month average  
– VIX index: up 0.65% to 18.70

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

From “Meet” Bret Jensen: 

Bret Jensen

The devil is in the details dept.

LL‑2026‑03………….The reason the trouble condo market with a 14-year high inventory levels is going to get worse.  This new lender rule takes effect in a week for mortgages via Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (most of the mortgage market).  Prior to new rules taking effect, if you put 20% down, the lender would review you for a mortgage.  Now they will do the review on the mortgage applicant, and for any condo building with 10 units or more, will also review the health of the complex itself.  This means looking at the reserves, insurance coverage, any litigation against the HOA, etc…  Based on my experience in Florida, that means a lot of condos are not going to get a great light for a conventional mortgage.  They will have to pay 1% to 2% higher mortgage rates outside this previously easier financing avenue.  I wonder how many condo owners, let alone many real estate agents, know of these changes yet.

Position: None

Earnings After the Close Monday July 27, 2026:

Position: None

Circular financing ain’t what it used to be

Position: Short SPCX (VS) 

President Trump: There is a chance we could make a deal with Iran; Iran wants to meet and we’re meeting; We’re having good talks and there’s a good chance that something will happen through our negotiations 

– Haven’t spoken with Saudi Arabia about joining the Abraham Accords

– We’ve got several types of ammunition, but would like to have more

– We’re building a lot of patriot missiles 

– Will ask Russian President Putin about speculation that Russia is aiding Iran; Reiterates that he doesn’t believe they’re aiding Iran by sending satellite images

– Money from Venezuela can go to the U.S. military 

– Referencing the money made in Venezuela: It’ll happen with Iran too and will be used for pay for damages

– Fed Chair Warsh is great, but he has to deal with his board; Reiterates that rates should be lower; Reiterates U.S. should have the world’s lowest interest rates

– Israel would not survive without us 

Position: None

Wolf Street howls about the AI data centers build. 

Position: None

This is a research day for me, with five separate calls.

Very little trading besides what I have reported in the indices.

Position: None

– NYSE volume 3% below its one-month average; 

– Nasdaq volume 4% below its one-month average; Advancers lead decliners by 1.9:1 

– VIX index: up 1.94% to 18.94

Positions: None.

I am taking a small profit in my trading long rentals:

* SPY (SPY) $739.15

* QQQ (QQQ) $681.15

Positions: None

 

Added to index trading long rentals: SPY (SPY) $737.11 and QQQ (QQQ) longs $676.73. 

Positions: Long SPY S QQQ S.

I have taken a long trading rental in the indexes (on the oversold):
* SPY (SPY) $737.80

* QQQ (QQQ) $678.04

At the time of publication, Kass was long SPY VS QQQ VS

From Peter Boockvar:

One more thing, CXMT

I’ve been talking about CXMT for the past month as a heads up to those trading the DRAM stocks and Yangtze Memory for those in NAND (will likely go public before year end), the two leading Chinese makers of these semiconductors. I’ll argue again, they want more market share in the coming years and are coming for the margins of Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Western Digital, Sandisk, etc… While CXMT is behind in high bandwidth memory technology relative to its peers technologically speaking, they will catch up in the coming years and in DRAM, they are highly competitive in this commodity like space.

CXMT started trading today and the stock went skyward.

Positions: None.

Chart from at 9:36 a.m. ET

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

This is why they will do nothing/Important to watch/Other stuff

What we’re seeing with this drop in oil prices in response to the pause in kinetic actions, for now, is exactly why the Fed will do nothing this week and will be on hold, I believe, until this is over. How can one properly calibrate monetary policy when geopolitics are driving such a key economic input, that being the cost of energy? Imagine if oil was $100 on Wednesday, the Fed hikes rates and then on Thursday we got a deal and oil drops back down to $80 or less? What was the point of hiking? With oil prices, at least for now, it’s clear that we’re carving out a wide trading range of about $70-$100.

Also, if the purpose of a few of the task forces was to refine as best as possible the economic data accumulation to make it as precise as possible for the very difficult job of picking interest rates, doesn’t the FOMC need to see the results before making a fully educated decision on rates? I think so.

Also, Treasury Secretary Bessent has been front loading Treasury issuance on the short end of the yield curve which then of course makes US interest expense highly sensitive to changes in the overnight rate. Hikes from here certainly benefit interest income for holders of Treasuries but gets really costly for the federal government. My friend Adam Josephson showed this chart on Friday to highlight:

Bottom line, while the bond market is pricing in a 32% chance of a hike Wednesday and a 100% of one hike and 68% chance of a 2nd by year end, in my guesses, I’m just sticking to the upcoming meeting because so much can change every six weeks and the crystal ball, always cloudy, is now ever more so. Also, the Fed can do nothing and it’s become clear that the longer end of the yield curve will still go its own way, and that’s been higher in yields as seen.

When I included the chart Friday that reflected not just the on balance sheet debt levels of the five big hyperscalers but also its growing lease obligations, I forgot to include the 5 yr CDS of each. Here it is as of Friday’s close and by the way, the Nvidia deal with Open AI continues with the massive vendor financing that is now endemic throughout the data center buildout, as we know and that continues on.

I want to point out the spread widening that is taking place in the CCC category of high yield. Friday’s close of 876 bps is the highest since April 2025. Something to take note of.

This was from the American Express call and whose stock fell 4.3% Friday because of higher marketing costs and is down 6 days in a row:

“We can either drop the overperformance to the bottom line and buy back more shares, or we can invest to grow the business further through the wide range of attractive growth opportunities we have across our business, both in the US and international. We’ve chosen the latter because, in the long run, it is the one that creates the most value for our shareholders, as demonstrated by our high ROE.”

“our focus on premium products continues to drive improvements in credit performance…As a result of that strategy, both delinquency and write-off rates remain below 2019 levels, and delinquency rates have been between 1.2% and 1.3% for over three years.”

With respect to spend, “Growth was broad based across categories, with goods and services spending up 9% and T&E up 10%. Retail spending continued to be very strong, up 13% FX adjusted in the quarter. Restaurant spending, our largest T&E category, was up 10%. Airline spending picked up further from the strong growth we saw in Q1, also up 10% y/o/y.”

“Commercial spending picked up to 5%, with both US SME (small, medium sized enterprises) and large and global customers growing at the same pace.”

This was from Lamb Weston Friday, the maker of french fries:

“Looking at the underlying market drivers for this quarter, as reported by Circana CREST, US restaurant traffic was flat, QSR traffic was also flat, led by 3% growth in QSR chicken, largely offset by a 4% decline in QSR burger traffic.”

“For the company, inflation in the quarter was up more than we had expected. All inputs other than raw potato prices were up, with a substantial increase in edible oils and transportation costs. Demand for biodiesel has driven up the cost of most edible oils, and while we are hedged against oil, we are seeing spot price inflation.”

One thing to note overseas with the economic data, the July German IFO business confidence index rose a touch to 86.6 from 85.7 with all of the gain in the Expectations component as the Current Assessment slipped by a .5 pt m/o/m. IFO said simply, “Despite the uncertain situation in the Persian Gulf, companies are less pessimistic.” On manufacturing they said, “Demand picked up, and material shortages eased.” On the service sector, “Sentiment among tour operators has picked up.”

Nothing market moving but bund yields are dropping as they are around the world with the drop in oil prices.

Positions: None.

Upside:

-ENTX +66% (prices $275M private placement of 135M shares and pre-funded warrants at $2.04/shr for osteoporosis program)

-FBRX +40% (to be acquired by Argenx at $77/shr for $2.2B to add FB102 for vitiligo and celiac disease)

-TRAX +34% (higher in sympathy with FBRX)

-AGPU +17% (awarded 5-yr, >$1.5B US AI infrastructure contract for >9,200 NVIDIA Blackwell B300 GPUs)

-FRNM +7.7% (receives FDA premarket approval for SimpleScreen CRC test)

-SRPT +7.1% (appoints Michael Severino CEO)

-QBTS +7.0% (hearing Benchmark Company Resumed QBTS with Buy, price target: $30; expands AT&T quantum computing use)

-BE +4.6% (strength ahead of quarterly earnings report)

-RKLB +4.1% (awarded $266M multi-launch contract by U.S. Space Force)

-AAL +4.0% (airline rally with crude prices lower following President Trump delaying Iran operation)

-LUV +3.6% (airline rally with crude prices lower following President Trump delaying Iran operation)

-INSG +3.5% (Inseego Subscribe achieves CMMC Level 2 certification)

-BKR +3.2% (earnings, guidance)

-RIVN +3.2% (Piper/Sandler Raised RIVN to Overweight from Neutral, price target: $20)

-DAL +2.9% (airline rally with crude prices lower following President Trump delaying Iran operation)

-CVU +2.8% (awarded $13.6M L3Harris contract for NGJ-LB pod structures)

-CDRE +2.7% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Initiates CDRE with Overweight, price target: $40)

-SNDK +2.7% (momentum)

-CRCL +2.4% (acquires IBM blockchain patent portfolio)

Downside:

-CAPR -61% (FDA staff review says data for CAPR’s Duchenne cell therapy doesn’t provide substantial evidence of effectiveness)

-MPLT -58% (reports Phase 2 ZEPHYR data for ML-007C-MA in acute exacerbation of schizophrenia)

-PFSA -18% (to merge with health diagnostics firm)

-MUR -8.1% (energy stock weakness)

-TURB -6.8% (earnings, color)

-LEGN -4.2% (appoints Alan Bash as Interim CEO)

-XOM -2.9% (oil prices lower following President Trump delaying Iran operation)

-CVX -2.8% (oil prices lower following President Trump delaying Iran operation)

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Treasury Auctions

11 a.m.: Treasury Buyback Announcement (liq support); 

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $92B 3 and $79B 6-Month Bill Auction; 

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $69B 2-Year Note Auction; 

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $70B 5-Year Note Auction

Economic Calendar

Also today:  

10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (July); 

Positions: None.

In Issue #222 I asked: 

“Am I the only one that finds it ironic that Anthropic and OpenAI are whining about the Chinese stealing their IP and then massively undercutting them on price, when they themselves have stolen everything to train their models?”

More irony, this is how they steal books, legally! Book slicing, and the first sale doctrine. Funniest part, they use a mechanical slicer, and probably manual labor to do it (cut and then feed into the scanning machine). They need the humans, an elegant pair of scissors, and a scanner.  And they have the nerve to complain about the Chinese stealing IP:

https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-companies-destroying-rare-books 

Position: None

Medical Marijuana Has ‘Made A Difference’ For Pete Buttigieg’s Family And For Veterans He Served With In The Military, He Says – Marijuana Moment

Position: None

In light of the developed oversold (in the S&P Short Range Oscillator) I have had no index shorts (I actually took a trading long rental on Friday and sold for a small profit) since Thursday.

However, I expect to reestablish index shorts on any further strength.

See my comments about the pause in the Iranian conflict…

Position: None

A pause in the Iran conflict has resulted in a dramatic decline in the price of oil (after three weeks of an upturn).

In turn, stock futures are spiritedly higher (S&P futures +75 handles and Nasdaq futures +465 handles).

My intention is not to be political in quoting from an acquaintance who is relatively close to the situation (and has been a supporter of President Trump):

It is impossible to determine what Trump is really intending. Now he suspends attacks and says they are talking but he already had called the Iranians scum, liars, etc. and everyone knows even if they signed a deal they will break it in days, so why is he talking to them. He looks ridiculous and is just angering his base. Everyone but Trump seems to know talking is just an Iranian strategy. Meantime the supposed supreme leader today called for Jihad exactly like in 632 and the wiping out of Israel and the infidels-us- and he wants a nuke weapon. There is nothing to talk about now. They are the exact same people as they were 1400 years ago, determined to wipe out the Christians and Jews. Jihad is the overriding tenet of Islam and has never changed and the IRGC is devoted to carry it out. We will see what happens by Thursday, but if Trump still is talking about doing a deal then he is a hopeless fool driven by his ego thinking he can force them to do a real deal. The military is now ready to go and until we and Israel go all in we are wasting time, looking weak and stupid and just encouraging the Iranians to hold out more…

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains oversold at -1.27% vs. -1.33%.

Position: None