Daily Diary

Stephen GuilfoyleStephen Guilfoyle
DATE:

That’s a Wrap

Another day, another record? Sort of.

The S&P 500 managed to set a new all-time intraday record high as well as an all-time record closing high. Why? Inflation, or the lack thereof.

For the month of July, headline PPI printed at +0.0% month over month versus the +0.2% consensus and at +4.7% year over year versus expectations for a +4.9% print. At the core (ex. food and energy), PPI hit the tape at +0.2% month over month versus +0.3% consensus and at +4.2% year over year, even with consensus about down from +4.7% in June.

As it now becomes all but impossible for the Fed to raise short-term rates any time soon, at least not backed by logic, the yield paid by the U.S. two-year Treasury note contracted by 5 BPS to 4.15%, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year note dropped 4 BPS to 4.65%. This pushed equities higher.

The benchmark S&P 500 closed +0.6%, as the Nasdaq Composite gained +0.8%. Eight of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed in the green, led by Communication Services (XLC). Materials (XLB) led the losers.

Workday (WDAY) led the S&P 500 higher on takeover rumors. It was the memory trade that ruled the day, though, as SanDisk (SNDK), Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WDC) all had nice days. Cisco Systems (CSCO) took a beating after posting disappointing guidance along with what looked, otherwise, to be a pretty decent earnings report. 

Have a great evening, gang. Dougie will be out again tomorrow and, God willing, I will be back to work through the day with you all. Now, go get some grub and maybe work out a little. Sarge out. 

Positions: Long SNDK, MU equity.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 4:30 PM EDT

Baseball Trivia Answer

Question…

Only four times in post-integration (1947) MLB history has a ballplayer hit 35 or more home runs, while finishing the season with an OPS of less than .725. Hint: one batter did it twice. Name them.

Answer… 

1) In 1982, Dave Kingman of the New York Mets hit 37 HR, while batting just .204 and posting an OPS of .717. 

2) In 1983, Tony Armas of the Boston Red Sox hit 36 HR, while batting just .218 and posting an OPS of .707. 

3) In 1986, Dave Kingman of the Oakland Athletics hit 35 HR, while batting just .210 and posting an OPS of .686. 

4) In 2021, Kyle Seager of the Seattle Mariners hit 35 HR, while batting just .212 and posting an OPS of .723. 

Positions: None.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 3:14 PM EDT

Palantir on a Tear

Palantir (PLTR) is now up 22% since we gave readers a pre-earnings bullish setup.

The stock is also up 50% since its late July low. Readers will now see that the stock is consolidating while building a sideways to slightly higher trajectory after its post-earnings run. The stock has left its 200-day SMA in the dust, forcing professional managers to increase exposure. In addition, relative strength is quite robust but not severely overbought technically. On top of that, the daily MACD is set up about as bullishly as it could be with all three components singing the same song. My $205 target price stands for now. 

Positions: Long PLTR equity. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 2:12 PM EDT

Baseball Trivia!

Only four times in post-integration (1947) MLB history has a ballplayer hit 35 or more home runs, while finishing the season with an OPS of less than .725.

Hint: One batter did it twice. Name them.

Positions: None.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 1:34 PM EDT

On That Note…

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than 2.5% on the debt issuance news. Readers will see that AMD hit resistance through June and July at close to the same level. The shares also found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March into July rally. This has created what we call a basing period of consolidation or “flat base.” The stock can break in either direction out of these patterns, but in my experience, they have tended to be patterns of continuance. In this case, that would be bullish.

The upside pivot remains the 50-day SMA. Relative strength is still non-committal, but the daily MACD is starting to look a lot closer to a more bullish posture across all three components. I am reiterating my $700 target price here. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 11:45 AM EDT

On Twitter Now…

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 11:31 AM EDT

Tweet of the Morning…

Sarge says: Uh…. She knows that core CPI is already down to 2.5% and that restricting demand through interest rate hikes does nothing to solve a supply shock, right? Right???

Positions: none

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 9:57 AM EDT

July PPI

Headline: +0.0% m/m, below expectations for +0.2%. +4.7% y/y, below expectations for +4.9% 4.9%.
Core: +0.2% m/m, flat from June, below expectations for +0.3%. +4.2% y/y, in-line with expectations.

Positions: none

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 8:50 AM EDT

60 Minutes to Go…

S&P futures: +8 vs FV

Nasdaq Futures: +9 vs FV

US Ten-Year Note: 4.676%

US Two-Year Note: 4.193%

US 3-Month T-Bill: 3.797%

WTI Crude: -2.33%

US Dollar Index: -2.22%

Gold: -0.48%

Silver: -0.75%

Bitcoin: +0.23%

Positions: Long physical gold & silver

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 8:29 AM EDT

Mourner’s Kaddish (perhaps more fitting)

Translated from Hebrew to English

Exalted and hallowed be His great Name.

“Amen.”

Throughout the world which He has created according to His Will. May He establish His kingship, bring forth His redemption and hasten the coming of His Moshiach.

“Amen.”

In your lifetime and in your days and in the lifetime of the entire House of Israel, speedily and soon, and say, Amen.

“Amen. May His great Name be blessed forever and to all eternity, blessed.”

May His great Name be blessed forever and to all eternity. Blessed and praised, glorified, exalted and extolled, honored, adored and lauded be the Name of the Holy One, blessed be He.

“Amen.”

Beyond all the blessings, hymns, praises and consolations that are uttered in the world; and say, Amen.

“Amen.”

May there be abundant peace from heaven, and a good life for us and for all Israel; and say, Amen.

“Amen.”

He Who makes peace in His heavens, may He make peace for us and for all Israel; and say, Amen.

“Amen.”

Positions: none

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 7:58 AM EDT

Two Hours To Go…

S&P futures: +9 vs FV

Nasdaq Futures: +40 vs FV

US Ten-Year Note: 4.675%

US Two-Year Note: 4.186%

US 3-Month T-Bill: 3.797%

WTI Crude: -2.33%

US Dollar Index: -0.12%

Gold: -0.41%

Silver: -0.88%

Bitcoin: +0.33%

Positions: Long physical gold & silver

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 7:27 AM EDT

Good Morning!

It’s Thursday, gang. It is I, Sarge. I will be working in relief of Doug for the balance of the week as he tends to friends and family in the wake of what reads as tragic circumstances. So, you are welcome to go through the motions and down some coffee, while popping out a few sets of push-ups or whatever exercise you can do.

That said, as Doug attends services for his golfing pal and two young family friends, all who passed suddenly, let’s take some time to pray for, or of you are not religious in any way, meditate on sending strength and support out to Doug and the families involved as they go through the unthinkable.

As many of you probably know, I am Irish Catholic and I practice my Christian faith as best I can, so my prayers may reflect that, but I will try to keep it as non-denominational as possible. For those who do not know how to pray or don’t know of any prayers that one can say for those who have passed, try this…

“Eternal rest grant unto them, O Lord,
and let perpetual light shine upon them.
May the souls of all the faithful departed,
through the mercy of God, rest in peace.
Amen”

Don’t forget to pray for the families as well.

Positions: none

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2026, 6:38 AM EDT