After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 8% below its one-month average 

– NASDAQ volume 15% below its one-month average 

– VIX index: up 3.19% to 14.89

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

The last three weeks have been filled with far too much trauma and too many deaths.

Unfortunately, I just returned from the vet and this will be the last day of life for my beloved 17-year-old doxie, Ollie.

I have to go back to the vet shortly and put my precious boy down.

I won’t be returning to the office for the balance of the day.

See you all bright and early tomorrow morning.

Position: None  

Still higher bond yields (and lower bond prices) coupled with another rise in the price of crude oil (+$2.30) may suggest that a vigorous end-of-the-day (and month) rally might be challenged.

Position: None 

Source: ZeroHedge

Volume

– NYSE volume 12% below its one-month average 

– NASDAQ volume 16% below its one-month average 

– VIX index  up 5.75% to 15.26

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Position: None

This is the third day in a row of bad breadth:

Position: None

Charts from 9:49 a.m. ET

I expect aggressive markups this afternoon as it’s the last day of the month.

All things being equal I will aggressively short that move.

Note: I have no index shorts on right now.

Position: None

I am speculating on MSOS (MSOS) September monthly out of the money calls.

Positions: Long MSOS calls S common VL

* Buying gold

I have initiated a long in gold.

I purchased GLD (GLD) at $405.05.

I plan to average down on any weakness.

More early this week.

Positions: Long GLD VS

I added to my CRM (CRM) short at $258.95 this morning.

I am bidding for VRNO (VRNO) at $6.05 now.

Positions: Long VRNO S; short CRM S

Comment from “Meet” Bret Jensen:

Bret Jensen

28m ago

Why housing will remain moribund dept.

10 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 3.4% & median existing home price in the US was $243k

Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.7% & median existing home price is $434k

Result: $38k increase in down payment (assume 20% down) & 160% increase in monthly payment (from $862 to $2,240)

And now add in the big hikes in property taxes and insurance in many regions of the country.

Positions: None.

Upside:

-MOVE +43% (expands critical IT capacity to 8 MW by end-2026; secures $33M private placement in step to fund expansion)

-SAIC +8.0% (earnings, guidance)

-GME +3.8% (Q2 guidance; amends $1.4B convertible notes exchange)

-BW +3.6% (Needham Initiates BW with Buy, price target: $20)

-RZLV +3.4% (momentum)

-KALU +2.3% (UBS Raised KALU to Buy from Neutral, price target: $184)

-CVX +2.2% (renewed Middle East hostilities)

-EPAM +2.1% (activist hedge fund Engine Capital discloses 1.5% stake in letter pushing for company share buybacks)

Downside:

-PCG -16% (State of California legislature amends Senate Bill 492 for wildfire risk reduction, recovery)

-EIX -13% (State of California legislature amends Senate Bill 492 for wildfire risk reduction, recovery)

-MNSO -7.9% (multiple broker downgrades)

-HWM -4.4% (Elon Musk says SPCX could begin making blades, vanes for gas turbine production)

-PINS -3.3% (CFO announces resignation)

Today

8:00 a.m.: Fed Treasury Repo Reference Rate; 

10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (August); 

3:00 p.m.: Agricultural Prices Paid; Agriculture Prices Received (July)

Remainder of the Week

Positions: None.

 

* The McClellan Index (NYSI) is faltering, the Mid Cap Index (MDY) is weakening, the Russell Index (IWM) is not “crowing” nor is the equal weighted S and P Index (RSP) participating in the markets’ recent advance…

Contrary to the near universally bullish narrative of most of the “talking heads” in the business media, the market is not broadening out — at least not as measured by the McClellan Summation Index, the Mid Cap Index, Russell and Equal Weighted S&P Indices. 

Let’s look at the facts and charts, delivered by The Divine Ms M (Helene Meisler) on TheStreetPro this morning:

Stocks Are Sitting at a Crossroads

When we look back at the month of August, you might recall I had been of the mind that the ‘others’ would have a difficult month. It did not pan out as I envisioned. However, indicator-wise, you can see perhaps it has. Look at the McClellan Summation Index, which I think shows us what the majority of stocks are doing. It has been trending down for more than two weeks already, and if you squint hard enough, you can see it has made a lower low than late July and is closing in on the early June low.

If we look at the chart of the Mid Caps, we can see they are pretty much down on the month. The chart shows that rise early in the month that has been leaking without much fanfare for the last two weeks. It is coming into some decent support in the 685 area.

The IWM hasn’t escaped the same type of leakage. It too is back where it was in early August, having given up the gains that got folks so excited early in the month. It is also back where it was in June.

For all the hootin and hollerin about how great small caps were (are?) relative to large caps, the ratio of IWM to SPY says that narrative is wrong. That ratio peaked two months ago and just made a minor lower low. You can see it accelerated in the last week.

And what of everyone’s new favorite ETF, the RSP (equal-weight S&P)? Aside from the fact that the ratio peaked back in late February, notice all that supposed broadening out peaked in late July—exactly when the SOX/tech stocks made their lows. This ratio turned south last week as well.

When you see these charts, you can understand why in the very short term, the market seems oversold. But you can also see that the Either/Or Market remains intact.

Position: None

 

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is slightly oversold at -1.13% vs. -0.82%

Position: None