We’re Long This Small-Cap Drone Name as Fears of Russia NATO Strike Rise

If you’ve already read my Market Recon column on Thursday morning, then you know that The Wall Street Journal had reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe, this week, had traveled to Moscow to warn Russia not to attack NATO countries.

Behind this warning is the fact that Trump administration officials have become concerned that Russia, after talks with Ukraine have broken down, could launch some kind of distraction-intended attack against a Baltic nation.

It’s no secret that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been under some domestic pressure to end a war that has been quite costly both economically and in terms of lives lost. The fear is that, as leaving Ukraine without a clear-cut kinetic, conventional military victory has become unlikely, Putin could take Russian aggression inside that country to a higher level or expand the hostility elsewhere.

The Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all are in Russia’s neighborhood, making them potential targets. All three nations are former Soviet states. All three nations are currently members of NATO. Possibly emboldened by reports of dwindling U.S. high-end munitions as the U.S. war in Iran has worn on, some fear that Putin could try something in an attempt to re-establish Russian power regionally. This could be important to Russian leadership after it’s embarrassing military performance in Ukraine as well as turn domestic attention towards something new.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the media on Wednesday that Ratcliffe had held talks with Russian intelligence officials during his time in Moscow, but he did not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is understood, however, that Putin was briefed on those meetings after the fact.

This is why I informed readership on Thursday morning that I am remaining long the shares of Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX (RTX). This Is also why this portfolio is long Ondas Inc (ONDS).

Raising Cash

On Wednesday, the portfolio put some newly created cash to work. The idea was to reduce some average entry costs for some of our worst performing positions. The portfolio will create some more cash on Thursday. We will continue to reduce long-side risk to Alto Ingredients (ALTO) as that position appears especially dangerous, though there is no news. The portfolio will also write a covered call against (SOFI), which is one of our qualified positions.

Wednesday’s Intentions vs Actual Trades

Intention: Purchase 10 (EVLV) at or close to the last sale of $5.41

Actual trade: Bought 10 EVLV at $5.23.

Intention: Purchase 10 (SWBI) at or close to the last sale of $13.51

Actual trade: Bought 10 SWBI at $13.48

Intention: Purchase 5 shares of (PL) at or close to the last sale of $21.55

Actual trade: Bought 5 shares of PL at $21.37

Thursday’s Intentions

Sell 25 shares of ALTO at or close to the last sale of $4.00

Sell (write) one SOFI November 19 $22 call for about $1.05

Current Positions

Long 225 shares of ALTO at $4.9676. Target price: $8. Last sale: $4.00.

Long 40 shares of (ASPN) at $5.23. Target price: $10. Last sale: $5.32.

Long 95 shares of EVLV at $5.8183. Target price: $8.50. Last sale: $5.27.

Long 100 shares of (OCUL) at $8.3545. Target price: $11. Last sale: $10.91.

Short one OCUL $11 September 18 call at $1.65. Last sale: $0.55.

Long 250 shares of ONDS at $8.3642. Target price: $14. Last sale: $8.30.

Long 55 shares of PL at $24.1931. Target price: $46. Last sale: $21.40.

Long 10 shares of (RKLB) at $73.041. Target price: $101. Last sale: $67.04.

Long 100 shares of SOFI at $15.8511. Target price: $24. Last sale: $18.95.

Long 60 shares of SWBI at $14.9645. Target Price: $19. Last sale: $13.47.

Long 100 shares of (VELO) at $12.2986. Target price: $21. Last sale: $12.83.

Cash: $40.31.

Portfolio value: $10,600.51, +6.0% from inception on March 24.

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ALTO, ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, RKLB, SOFI, SWBI and VELO.