We Bought the Dow’s Worst Stock. Now It’s Up 21%.
Our Dow strategy worked last year with Boeing. It’s working again this year.
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Last year, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) was the worst-performing stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Shares of the healthcare giant lost 34% in 2025. UnitedHealth Group is the largest healthcare insurer in the U.S.
We bought shares of UnitedHealth Group at the start of this year, using a strategy that involves buying the worst-performing stock on the Dow Jones for the previous year. We had success with the strategy in 2025, as shares of Boeing (BA), the Dow’s worst performer in 2024, gained 26%.
How is the strategy performing this year? UnitedHealth Group has gained nearly 21% year-to-date. That figure doesn’t include UnitedHealth Group’s dividend, which has a current yield of 2.25%. Shares of the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based insurer jumped by nearly 3% on Thursday.
UnitedHealth Earnings and Analysis
UnitedHealth Group reported solid earnings earlier this week. The company beat earnings estimates, and raised full-year earnings guidance. Revenue came in slightly higher than projected.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target for UNH to $529 from $468, upside of nearly 30% from Thursday’s closing price. Morgan maintained its overweight rating on the stock. Piper Sandler raised its price target slightly, to $504 from $502, while maintaining its overweight rating.
Not Everyone Loves the Stock
However, not all analysts reacted positively to the news. Raymond James maintained its outperform rating, but lowered its price target to $450 from $475 due to valuation concerns. Baird maintained its neutral rating while cutting UnitedHealth Group’s target price to $427 from $453.
Overall, the consensus among analysts is that UnitedHealth Group is a moderate buy, with a target price in the $460 to $480 range.
Charting UnitedHealth Group
On Thursday, shares of UnitedHealth Group closed at a two-month high on above-average volume. Thursday’s closing price of $406 leaves the stock about 7.5% below its year-to-date high of $436, which is also the stock’s next major resistance level (black dotted line).
Despite its solid year-to-date performance, UnitedHealth Group remains about 35% below its all-time closing high of $625, set in late 2024.
Bottom Line
UnitedHealth Group insures about 51 million individuals. It’s the largest health insurer in the U.S., as measured by total membership and by revenue. It owns a 16% market share of the U.S. health insurance market.
This massive scale gives the company leverage when negotiating contracts with physician networks and pharmaceutical companies, giving UnitedHealth Group an advantage over its competitors. We’re sticking with this stock, based on both its performance and its potential.
At the time of publication, Ponsi was long UNH.
