The $10K Portfolio: Gunnin’ for Some More Smith & Wesson
As gun ownership appears to be on the rise, I’m adding to this weapons maker. Also, I’m eyeing an exit for this stock.
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The FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System reported on Tuesday that for July, firearm background checks were up 9.3% — to 2,194,563 checks over July 2025’s numbers. This marks the second consecutive month in a row of sequential gains.
In the past, background checks have (as one might think) correlated closely to actual firearm sales. The all-time one-month record for checks is 4,691,738 from March 2021. Checks had tailed off through the balance of 2021 and progressively through the years since.
Industry experts had expected firearm demand for 2026 to be flat to slightly lower, while certain categories remain strong (handguns, optics-ready models, budget-friendly models). Publicly traded companies that have at least some exposure to changing consumer firearm demand include portfolio holding Smith & Wesson (SWBI), Sturm Ruger (RGR) as well as a number of ammunition suppliers and sporting goods retailers. The portfolio is likely to add to its long position in Smith & Wesson on this news given that the shares continue to trade below our net basis.
Portfolio News
Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL): On Tuesday morning, analyst William Maughan of Clear Street reiterated his “buy” rating on OCUL along with his $28 target price. Maughan is rated at four stars out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a 43% success rate over the past two years, driving an average return of 16.5%.
On Tuesday morning, analyst Yi Chen of HC Wainwright reiterated his “buy” rating on OCUL along with his $25 target price. Chen is rated at three stars out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a 41% success rate over the past two years, driving an average return of 2%.
On Monday, analyst Serge Belanger of Needham reiterated his “buy” rating on OCUL along with his $18 target price. Belanger is rated at five stars out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a 55% success rate over the past two years, driving an average return of 36.2%.
On Monday, analyst Tara Bancroft of TD Cowan reiterated her “buy” rating on OCUL along with her $20 target price. Bancroft is rated at five stars out of five by TipRanks. She has compiled a 52% success rate over the past two years, driving an average return of 42.3%.
On Monday, analyst Lachlan Hanbury of William Blair reiterated his “buy” rating on OCUL without setting a target price. Hanbury is rated a half star out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a 35% success rate over the past two years, driving an average return of -6.2%.
Ondas Inc (ONDS): Ondas Inc. said Monday that former Mossad Director David Barnea has joined Ondas Defense as Global President and chairman. Barnea will join the senior executive leadership team in support of the company’s global expansion plans, and strategic technology development, as well as government and defense relationships. Barnea will work closely with chairman and CEO Eric Brock, and Oshri Lugassy, co-CEO of Ondas Autonomous Systems to advance Ondas’ strategy of building a unified, AI-enabled, multi-domain defense technology platform.
Rocket Lab (RKLB): On Monday, analyst Gregory Pendy of Clear Street reiterated his “buy” rating on RKLB along with his $129 target price. Pendy is rated at 2.5 stars out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a 47% success rate over the past two years, driving an average return of 3.1%.
Velo3D (VELO): On Monday, analyst Greg Palm of Craig-Hallum initiated a “buy” rating on VELO with a $20 target price. Palm is rated at five stars out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a 56% success rate over the past two years, driving an average return of 31.5%.
Upcoming Portfolio Earnings
– Inseego Corp (INSG) – After the closing bell on Wednesday, Aug. 5. Expected: Adjusted loss per share of $0.12 on revenue of $39.91 million.
– Alto Ingredients (ALTO) – After the closing bell on Wednesday, Aug. 5. Expected: Adjusted EPS of $0.09 on revenue of $231.22 million.
– Rocket Lab (RKLB) – After the closing bell on Monday, Aug. 10. Expected: Adjusted loss per share of $0.05 on revenue of $231 million.
– Rackspace Technology (RXT) – Ahead of the opening bell on Tuesday, Aug. 11. Expected: Unadjusted loss per share of $0.09 on revenue of $646 million.
– Evolv Technologies (EVLV) – After the closing bell on Tuesday, Aug. 11. Expected: Adjusted loss per share of $0.02 on revenue of $41.81 million.
– Ondas Inc (ONDS) – Ahead of the opening bell on Thursday, Aug. 13. Expected: Adjusted loss per share of $0.07 on revenue of $68 million.
Monday’s Intention vs. Actual Trade
– Purchase 15 shares of OCUL at or close to the last sale of $8.25.
– Bought 15 shares of OCUL at $8.34.
Tuesday’s Intentions
– Purchase 10 shares of SWBI at or close to the last sale of $14.98.
– Sell 100 shares of RXT at or close to the last sale of $4.88 (now that we have our money back) to exit the position.
Current Positions
Long 225 shares of ALTO at $5.2821. Target Price: $8. Last sale: $5.05.
Long 80 shares of EVLV at $5.8959. Target Price: $8.50. Last sale: $5.80.
Long 40 shares of INSG at $7.7563. Target Price: $11. Last sale: $7.45.
Long 115 shares of OCUL at $8.3545. Target Price: $11. Last sale: $8.52.
Short one OCUL $11 Sep 18th call at $1.65, Last sale: $0.50.
Long 250 shares of ONDS at $8.4266. Target Price: $14. Last sale: $8.68.
Long 50 shares of PL at $24.4758. Target Price $46. Last sale: $22.34.
Long 4 shares of RKLB at $66.505. Target Price $98. Last sale: $72.99.
Long 100 shares of RXT at $4.886. No Target Price. Last sale: $4.88.
Long 100 shares of SOFI at $15.7153. Target Price: $24. Last sale: $18.33.
Long 30 shares of SWBI at $15.74. Target Price: $19. Last sale: $14.98.
Long 115 shares of VELO at $12.1201. Target Price: $18. Last sale: $12.47.
Cash: $283.59.
Portfolio Value: $10,852.91, +8.5% from inception on March 24.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ALTO, EVLV, INSG, OCUL ONDS, PL, RKLB, RXT, SOFI, SWBI, VELO; Short OCUL.
